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Marseille vs Toulouse prediction 04.03.2026 | Coupe de France

Marseille

Marseille

Kick off:

Date:

Toulouse

Toulouse

1

1.60

X

4.10

2

5.25

  • Competition: Coupe de France, Quarter-Finals
  • Date: Wednesday, 4th March, 2026
  • Kickoff: 20:00 UK / 21:00 CET
  • Venue: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

On Wednesday evening, Marseille will welcome Toulouse in one of the quarter-final duels in the Coupe de France. Marseille are coming to the match after an important win over Lyon, breaking the three-game winless streak. Meanwhile, Toulouse are in a terrible moment, having won one point over the past four matches. 

Let's break down the game and find the best possible bet for this Coupe de France tie.

Marseille vs Toulouse Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Marseille

    2 : 2

    Toulouse

    Ligue 1

  2. Marseille

    3 : 2

    Toulouse

    Ligue 1

  3. Toulouse

    1 : 3

    Marseille

    Ligue 1

  4. Toulouse

    2 : 2

    Marseille

    Ligue 1

  5. Marseille

    0 : 0

    Toulouse

    Ligue 1

  6. Toulouse

    2 : 3

    Marseille

    Ligue 1

In the first H2H game this season, we saw a 2:2 draw in a super interesting game in which Marseille were the better team and deserved all three points. However, Toulouse equalized in stoppage time and secured one point. Looking further back, over the past ten H2H games, Marseille were much better, securing seven wins, while the remaining three ended in draws.

Regarding the number of goals, seven of the past ten ended with three or more goals, while both teams scored in the same number of games (seven). 

Marseille

Marseille team overview

Marseille's season has been a real rollercoaster. The Olympians have been simply too inconsistent by their standards and were also really disappointing in the Champions League, finishing 25th and failing to reach the knockout phase. That inconsistency and a bad Champions League campaign led to coach de Zerbi leaving and the appointment of Habib Beye. However, even though we cannot call Marseille's season a success, they are still in play to secure a cup and are in 4th place in Ligue 1, only 2 points behind the desired 3rd place. So, with a good end of the season, they could still save this season. 

After a 3:2 win over Lyon in the previous game, coach Habib Beye spoke to the media. He was satisfied with the win and praised the team for their effort. The coach said they want to build on this result and gain some momentum.

Last matches of Marseille

  1. Marseille

    3 : 2

    Lyon

    Ligue 1

  2. Brest

    2 : 0

    Marseille

    Ligue 1

  3. Marseille

    2 : 2

    Strasbourg

    Ligue 1

  4. PSG

    5 : 0

    Marseille

    Ligue 1

  5. Marseille

    3 : 0

    Rennes

    Coupe de France

Marseille lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Gerónimo Rulli

Defenders

  • 22

    Timothy Weah

  • 5

    Leonardo Balerdi

  • 21

    Nayef Aguerd

  • 33

    Emerson

Midfielders

  • 19

    Geoffrey Kondogbia

  • 23

    Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

  • 27

    Quinten Timber

Forwards

  • 10

    Mason Greenwood

  • 17

    Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

  • 14

    Igor Paixão

Toulouse

Toulouse team overview

After their promotion in the 2021/22 season and a return to Ligue 1, Toulouse have been between 10th and 13th place. However, they managed to surprise everyone by winning the cup in the 2022/23 season and will try to do that once again, especially with PSG already eliminated from the competition. This year, Les Violets were pretty good in Ligue 1, and it seemed they could maybe battle for Europe. Unfortunately, after winning two points over the past five rounds, they heavily lowered the chances of that happening. Now, they are in 11th place - six points away from European spots. 

After a 1:0 loss against Rennes, coach Carles Martínez spoke to the media. He said he couldn't recognize his team in the first half, saying they lacked energy and competitiveness. The coach mostly focused on their lack of energy and acknowledged that this level of performance is not up to Ligue 1 standards. 

Last matches of Toulouse

  1. Rennes

    1 : 0

    Toulouse

    Ligue 1

  2. Toulouse

    1 : 1

    Paris FC

    Ligue 1

  3. Le Havre

    2 : 1

    Toulouse

    Ligue 1

  4. Angers

    1 : 0

    Toulouse

    Ligue 1

  5. Toulouse

    1 : 0

    Amiens SC

    Coupe de France

Toulouse lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Guillaume Restes

Defenders

  • 19

    Djibril Sidibé

  • 3

    Mark McKenzie

  • 4

    Charlie Cresswell

Midfielders

  • 12

    Warren Kamanzi

  • 45

    Alexis Vossah

  • 18

    Pape Demba Diop

  • 24

    Dayann Methalie

Forwards

  • 7

    Julián Vignolo

  • 11

    Santiago Hidalgo

  • 10

    Yann Gboho

Prediction

Marseille aren't in great form, but most of their bad results came on the road. At Stade Vélodrome, the Olympians won three and drew one in the past four games against excellent competition (Lyon, Strasbourg, Rennes, and Lens). Also, at home, Marseille won nine of 13 games in the domestic competitions - 69%.

Toulouse, on the other hand, are in terrible form, having lost three of the past four games and won only against Amiens (League 2) in the past six matches! Also, on the road, Les Violets lost three in a row against mediocre competition, at best. 

Considering Marseille's dominance in their H2H games and all the above, we believe Marseille should secure a comfortable win at Stade Vélodrome. 

3 Reasons why Marseille should win and cover the -1 AH spread

  1. Marseille won three and drew one in the past four home games
  2. Toulouse lost three road games in a row
  3. Marseille won 10 of the past 13 h2h games

Main prediction Marseille - Toulouse

AH1 (-1)

Updated

clock
winrate

53% winrate

wins

3 wins in a row

Nikola has been betting for 10+ years and in the last couple of years he really improved his skills and made a lot of profit. He focuses mostly on football and basketball.

Best Odds:

Melbet

2.00

Bet here

Marseille vs Toulouse – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can find the match officially on beIN Connect (Fra).

? How much is the average xG for Marseille this season?

The average xG for Marseille in the league this season is 1.67.

? How much is the average xG for Toulouse this season?

The average xG for Toulouse in the league this season is 1.47.