2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Ball: Odds, predictions & betting tips

By Deniss Novickis | Published: April 28, 2026, 15:15

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is just around the corner, and it’s time to talk about one of the most important individual awards. The Golden Ball award is decided based on individual performance (goals, assists, influence), consistency across matches, impact in key moments, especially the knockout stages, and overall contribution to the team’s success.

The winner will be selected by FIFA’s Technical Study Group and media representatives after the final, while the former awardees include some of the biggest names in world football. In this article, we’ll check the odds, talk about the top contenders, name the previous winners and make our prediction on the outcome this summer.

Messi was the best player of 4 of the 5 International tournaments he won.

Best player — Copa 2021
Best player — World Cup 2022
Best player — Finalissima 2022
Outstanding player — Olympics 2008

In all of this, they said he was carried. Can we see just one from the other guy? pic.twitter.com/dCMMxlZTuM

— BeksFCB (@Joshua__Ubeku) June 11, 2025

Previous results prove that you can receive the best player award, even if your side didn’t win the World Cup. However, all previous winners reached at least the semi-finals with their national teams. We’ll talk about some of the top favourites below.

Harry Kane

A key member of the England squad, Kane is almost guaranteed chances deep into the tournament if the team clicks. His penalty-taking and link-up play boost his visibility beyond goals. However, to win the Golden Ball, the striker needs to deliver decisive knockout performances rather than just group-stage scoring.

Lamine Yamal

Yamal’s youth makes his candidacy fascinating rather than certain. His dribbling and creativity can define matches, especially in tight knockout games where individuality matters. Spain’s structured style could elevate him as the standout face of the team. Still, consistency over seven matches at that age is the key question. A breakout tournament should put him firmly in contention.

Kylian Mbappé

The favourite to win the Golden Boot, Mbappé is almost tailor-made for the Golden Ball. His ability to dominate big matches, score in bursts, and carry France deep into tournaments gives him a strong platform. Mbappé already commands attention as the team’s main star, and if he combines goals with decisive moments in the play-offs, he naturally becomes one of the leading candidates.

Michael Olise

Olise represents a more outside shot, but not an unrealistic one. His creativity, set-piece quality, and flair could shine if he becomes central to France’s attacking play. For him to win, he would need a tournament where he consistently influences games with assists and key moments, rather than just flashes. A deep French run would be essential for his chances.

Lionel Messi

Messi’s chances depend heavily on longevity and role. Even if no longer the explosive force of earlier years, his influence, vision, and leadership can still shape games. If Argentina go deep again and Messi delivers key episodes, the narrative factor becomes powerful. However, managing minutes and physical demands over a long tournament will be crucial.

When Lionel Messi's Argentina got knocked out of the 2018 World Cup, the commentator said this😭 pic.twitter.com/ZwP209oTiK

— LSPN_FC (@LSPN__FC) April 17, 2026

Vinicius Jr.

Vinícius has the profile of a Golden Ball winner: explosive, decisive, and capable of turning matches alone. Brazil’s attacking style suits him, and if he becomes their main difference-maker in knockout games, his visibility rises quickly. The key is end product - if he pairs his dribbling with goals and assists at the right moments, he becomes a serious contender.

Raphinha

Raphinha’s chances rely on consistency and tactical importance. He can influence games with direct running, pressing, and creativity, but he’s less likely to dominate headlines unless he delivers decisive contributions regularly. For a Golden Ball push, he would need to emerge as Brazil’s most effective attacker throughout the tournament, especially in the knockout rounds.

Bruno Fernandes

Fernandes offers a different path to the award through midfield dominance. His chance creation, long-range shooting, and leadership can define Portugal’s rhythm. If Portugal make a deep run and he consistently dictates games while contributing goals and assists, he becomes a strong candidate. His visibility depends on being the clear driving force behind the team. However, the presence of Cristiano Ronaldo might be a minus rather than a plus.

Rodri

Rodri’s case is built on control rather than flair. As a deep-lying midfielder, he influences every phase of play, dictating tempo and providing stability. For a player in his role to win the Golden Ball, Spain would likely need to dominate the tournament, with Rodri recognized as the central figure. Exceptional consistency and a few standout moments could elevate him into contention.

The table below lists the previous 12 winners of the World Cup’s best player award. Lionel Messi is the only player to receive this award twice, and the Argentina captain will try to win it for the third time this summer.

As much as we like all the young stars of the game, you just can’t ignore the genius of Lionel Messi, and FIFA’s Technical Study Group surely won’t do that. Argentina shouldn’t have many problems in qualifying from the group stage, and from then on, a lot will depend on details. The reigning world champions are capable of making another deep run, and if that happens, you just can’t see anyone but Messi receiving the Golden Ball.

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