McGregor vs Holloway 2: Odds and prediction for UFC 329 in Las Vegas

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: May 18, 2026, 13:55

It's finally happening! After a five-year layoff and a period filled with controversies outside the cage, Conor McGregor is finally making his long-awaited return to the UFC. The Irishman is scheduled to face Max Holloway in the main event of UFC 329 on July 11 in Las Vegas, with the fight taking place in the welterweight division.

The two go way back to 2013, when they first met in the featherweight division. Back then, McGregor defeated Holloway by unanimous decision, long before either man became one of the biggest names in the sport. Since that loss, Holloway has built a legendary career of his own. That makes this an incredibly dangerous comeback fight for McGregor.

The bout is scheduled for 06:00 CET on July 12. Read our McGregor vs Holloway prediction, where we break down the betting odds and analyse both fighters' recent form.

At the moment, only the moneyline odds are available, and bookmakers clearly expect a difficult night for the Notorious. He opened as a massive underdog at 4.10, while Holloway sits as a heavy favourite at 1.25. It is hard to argue with those numbers. McGregor is coming off back-to-back losses and has not fought in years, while Holloway stayed active the entire time.

McGregor will turn 38 just two days after the fight, which adds another layer of uncertainty to his comeback. Unfortunately for MMA fans, some of the best years we could have seen from the Notorious inside the cage were spent away from the sport. Physically, McGregor gives up height against Holloway. Blessed stands three inches taller at 5'11", but McGregor still carries a surprisingly big reach advantage, with 74 inches compared to Holloway's 69.

McGregor already tried to settle old scores once before. In 2021, he faced Dustin Poirier, the same man he had knocked out back in 2014. This time, things went very differently. McGregor suffered the first knockout loss of his career in their second fight, and then he returned half a year later for the trilogy. The night turned into a complete disaster after he broke his leg in the opening round.

To be fair, the Irishman actually looked sharp in the second Poirier fight before the finish happened. However, one issue followed him throughout his entire career - cardio. If he does not get a finish in the first couple of rounds, his pace drops dramatically. His movement slows down, his hands go low, and he becomes much easier to hit.

Still, one thing the Notorious has always done well is surprise people with new ideas and techniques. Everyone remembers the 40-second destruction of Donald Cerrone, where he used shoulder strikes to break Cerrone's nose in the first fifteen seconds of the fight. Against Poirier, he abandoned his iconic karate-style stance and came out in a much more boxing-heavy approach. We have not seen McGregor compete in years, but neither has Holloway seen this version of him before. If the Irishman still has a few tricks left up his sleeve, this fight could end up being much closer than the odds suggest.

CONOR MCGREGOR IS BACK 🇮🇪

[ #UFC329 LIVE July 11 on @ParamountPlus] pic.twitter.com/9Md9OJK0VW

— UFC on Paramount+ (@UFConParamount) May 17, 2026

McGregor's last fights

Holloway is one of the best boxers in the UFC. His volume, durability, and endless cardio made him a nightmare matchup for almost everyone over the years. And honestly, his last-second knockout of Justin Gaethje to win the BMF title is something that should be mentioned every single time people talk about him.

Still, the aura around his chin is no longer untouchable. Two years ago, Ilia Topuria became the first man to knock Holloway out. It was a shocking moment for fans who got used to seeing Max survive absolutely everything. Holloway bounced back well after that, beating Poirier by decision and sending the Diamond into retirement.

His last appearance came in a BMF title fight against Charles Oliveira, where the Hawaiian entered as the favourite. Oliveira ended up winning a decision by controlling him on the ground for long stretches, despite Holloway usually having very solid takedown defence.

Blessed remains extremely dangerous on the feet, and McGregor simply does not have Oliveira's level of grappling to keep him pinned down, or does he now?? We genuinely do not know after such a long break. One thing is certain, though: standing in the pocket and trading combinations with a volume striker like Holloway sounds like a very risky game plan for Conor.

Day 7 of no UFC 😞
So here's the final 10 seconds of Max Holloway Vs Justin Gaethje 🙌 one of the greatest knockouts of all time and one of the most exhilarating sequences in MMA 🔥 still sends chills to this day 💥🥶 pic.twitter.com/25bbycyVhX

— RedWolf🐺 (@RedWolfMMA) December 20, 2025

Holloway's last fights

To be real, there is a long list of reasons why betting on McGregor is probably a terrible idea. He has not fought professionally in five years, except random guys in bars; his cardio was never elite, he is old, and his chin has definitely seen better days. On paper, everything points towards Holloway being the safer and smarter pick.

However, we also cannot ignore the fact that this fight takes place at welterweight. Anyone who followed McGregor on social media during these years saw how massive he became physically. He is probably never making 155 lbs again. With that extra size, combined with his huge reach advantage and natural left-hand power, the Notorious could actually be even more dangerous early on than he was in his prime.

For Holloway, the move up in weight is a different story. He has spent years staying active around lightweight, but this is still a jump to welterweight just for one fight. Will the added weight slow him down a bit? Nobody really knows yet. At the end of the day, Holloway absolutely deserves to be the favourite. However, at the odds of 4.10, the value is simply too tempting to ignore. Our pick is McGregor to pull off the upset.

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