Who will win the 2026 World Cup: prediction and betting odds

By Deniss Novickis | Updated: April 2, 2026, 13:30

The last day of March has brought us six dramatic finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup play-offs, and now we know the full line-up of the summer tournament in Canada, Mexico and the United States. Obviously, the elimination of Italy was the biggest shock - the four-time champions lost to Bosnia and Herzegovina on penalties, so they will miss their third straight World Cup as a result.

In this article, we’ll analyse the betting odds and the chances of the top favourites to lift the trophy on July 19, talk about the dark horses and value long-term bets before making our prediction on the outcome. Can Argentina defend their title? Are Spain the team to beat for a reason? Could England win their first big title in 60 years? Let’s find out!

Top 5 favourites to win the World Cup

• Spain – 5.50
• England – 6.50
• France – 7.00
• Brazil – 9.00
• Argentina – 9.00

Four years ago in Qatar, Argentina won their third title, the last trophy that was missing in Lionel Messi’s lacklustre career. However, Spain are the top favourites now, according to the bookmakers. In the meantime, every World Cup that took place in North or South America has been won by the Americas themselves.

🇪🇸 Spain: Are they top favourites for a reason?

Spain arrive at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in outstanding form as one of the benchmark teams in international football. Their resurgence under Luis de la Fuente has been remarkable, highlighted by the triumph at EURO 2024 and a long unbeaten run in competitive fixtures. This consistency, combined with a clear tactical identity, makes them one of the strongest contenders to go deep into the tournament.

Spain's EURO 2024 winning moment 🏆#EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/npn9bhQgrj

— UEFA EURO (@UEFAEURO) April 21, 2025

Spain’s squad strength lies in its balance: a technically gifted midfield anchored by Rodri and Pedri ensures control of matches, while wide threats such as Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams provide explosiveness. The attacking unit is versatile rather than reliant on a single striker, which makes them unpredictable in knockout football. However, their relative lack of veteran experience could be a factor in high-pressure moments.

Spain play in group H together with Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia, so qualifying for the play-offs shouldn’t be a problem. They will battle with Uruguay for first place in the group. If successful, their opponents in the Round of 32 will likely be Austria. From then on, it’s tough to make any predictions, but if their young core maintains composure, Spain have every chance of lifting the trophy.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England: Is it finally coming home?

England head into the tournament with a squad that is arguably one of the most talented in the world, though questions remain about consistency. Under Thomas Tuchel, there is renewed optimism that tactical flexibility and elite coaching can unlock the team’s full potential. England’s form has been mixed despite a strong qualifying campaign, and recent performances have exposed vulnerabilities in midfield control and defensive cohesion.

Nevertheless, their attacking depth is exceptional, with players like Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, and Bukayo Saka forming one of the most dangerous forward lines in football. The squad is deep across all positions, allowing Tuchel multiple tactical options. Historically, England have struggled to convert talent into trophies, but their recent runs in major tournaments suggest they are close to breaking through.

England will play in group L together with Panama, Ghana and their old pals, Croatia. While we can’t see Panama going through, the other three sides can all finish first. The winner of this group will play against one of the best third-placed teams, so the path to the final is absolutely unpredictable. What we can say for sure is that if Tuchel can stabilise the midfield and defence, England have a realistic chance to challenge for the title.

🇫🇷 France: Swan song by Deschamps

First in FIFA rankings, France once again look like a powerhouse ahead of the World Cup, combining elite form with tournament pedigree. They have consistently performed at the highest level under Didier Deschamps, winning the 2018 World Cup and reaching the finals of EURO 2016 and 2022 World Cup. The coach is one of the biggest strengths here - he has worked with the team since 2012, and will leave after the tournament to be replaced by the legendary Zinedine Zidane.

France vs the World Cup curse! ⚔️🇫🇷

Ballon d’Or ❌ World Cup
🥇 1st in FIFA Rankings ❌ World Cup

No team in history has lifted the World Cup while topping the FIFA rankings or having the current Ballon d’Or winner on their squad 💭⚽ pic.twitter.com/untvv8CafR

— SportyTV (@SportyTV) April 1, 2026

The squad depth is arguably unmatched, blending experienced winners with emerging stars. Kylian Mbappé remains the focal point in attack, supported by a deep pool of talent across all positions. The continued leadership of Deschamps provides stability and a proven winning formula. His tactical pragmatism, sometimes criticised for being conservative, has repeatedly delivered results in the play-offs.

France’s main strength is their ability to adapt to different opponents while maintaining defensive solidity and attacking efficiency. Playing in group I along with Iraq, Senegal and Norway, they are destined to fight with Erling Haaland and his team for first place. One thing to note, though - France are almost certain to meet Germany in the Round of 16.

🇧🇷 Brazil: First title in 24 years?

Brazil, the most successful nation in history with five titles, will enter the 2026 FIFA World Cup with a blend of immense talent and lingering questions about consistency. Traditionally one of the most successful nations in football history, Brazil still possess one of the deepest talent pools globally, with star players across Europe’s top leagues.

However, recent performances have been less convincing compared to other favourites, particularly in terms of defensive stability and overall cohesion. Carlo Ancelotti, a well-known tactician and one of the most celebrated coaches in history, was hired to fix that. The problem is that he has never worked with a national team before.

Brazil’s attacking quality remains elite, capable of deciding matches individually or collectively. Players such as Vinícius Júnior, Raphinha, and Joao Pedro give them game-changing ability in the final third. If they can find tactical balance and defensive reliability, Brazil have the potential to reassert themselves as serious contenders for the title. Brazil are in group C with Morocco, Scotland and Haiti. If they can take the top spot, the draw looks favourable until the quarter-finals, where they will probably meet England or Mexico.

🇦🇷 Argentina: Could Messi and Co defend the title?

The defending champions approach the 2026 FIFA World Cup carrying both confidence and expectation. Under Lionel Scaloni, they have built a cohesive and resilient unit that thrives in high-pressure situations. Their recent form, including major tournament success, demonstrates a team that knows how to win when it matters most.

🚨💣 Deeply emotional scenes unfolding in Argentina 🇦🇷🥹

Lionel Messi is currently playing what is expected to be his LAST match with the national team on Argentine soil.

The final chapter at home for the greatest of all time before the 2026 World Cup. This one really hurts.… pic.twitter.com/yW8WaYYxyi

— Topskills Sports UK (@topskillsportuk) April 1, 2026

The squad blends experienced leaders with younger talent, ensuring both stability and energy. While Lionel Messi remains a symbolic and creative force, Argentina are no longer dependent solely on him, with players across the pitch contributing decisively. Scaloni’s pedigree as a World Cup-winning coach adds immense value, particularly in managing tournament dynamics and squad harmony.

Argentina’s main strength lies in their tactical discipline and collective spirit, which often gives them an edge in tight matches. As reigning champions, they are clear contenders, and their experience of going all the way could prove decisive once again. Playing in group J with Austria, Algeria and Jordan, they should finish first. If it all goes as expected, they’ll play Portugal in the quarter-finals. We all know what that means, don’t we?

While every team listed above has a genuine chance of winning, there are several compelling underdogs capable of achieving significant upsets. We have identified three teams that can win gold, despite not being among the favourites.

🇩🇪 Germany: Dreaming of catching Brazil

Germany head into the tournament with renewed optimism after a period of transition that followed several disappointing tournament exits. Under Julian Nagelsmann, the team has begun to rediscover its identity, blending traditional German efficiency with a more modern, dynamic style of play. Their recent form has shown improvement, particularly in terms of attacking cohesion and pressing intensity, suggesting they could emerge as serious contenders if consistency is maintained.

When Germany produced the quickest corner ever taken in football history vs. Italy pic.twitter.com/YM3Q71G6ug

— Mee (@_Meecfc) March 28, 2026

The squad is well-balanced, featuring a mix of experienced leaders and technically gifted younger players. Key figures such as Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, and Joshua Kimmich provide creativity and control, while the defensive core is steadily stabilizing. Germany’s tournament pedigree remains one of their greatest assets, as they have historically excelled on the biggest stage, being just one world title behind Brazil.

Playing in group E with Curaçao, the Ivory Coast and Ecuador, the Germans are destined to finish first. Their first real obstacle should be France in the Round of 16. If Nagelsmann can fully implement his tactical vision and maintain squad harmony, Germany have a realistic chance of going deep into the competition and potentially competing for the title.

🇵🇹 Portugal: The last trophy missing in Ronaldo’s collection

Portugal have another golden generation that is reaching maturity, making them one of the most intriguing teams in the tournament. Guided by Roberto Martínez, the team has developed a fluid attacking style while maintaining defensive structure. Their recent form has been strong, with consistent performances in qualifying and international competitions boosting confidence.

Portugal’s squad depth is impressive, particularly in midfield and attack, where creativity and technical quality are abundant. Players such as Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, and Rafael Leão offer versatility and goal threat, while the continued presence of Cristiano Ronaldo adds experience and leadership. However, his compulsive will to play 90 minutes in every match might be a disadvantage.

Martínez’s pedigree, including his international experience, provides stability and a solid tactical framework. With their blend of talent and experience, Portugal have a strong chance of making a deep run if they maintain consistency. Group K with DR Congo, Uzbekistan and Colombia looks very сomfortable, and we all are desperate to see Messi against Ronaldo in the quarter-finals.

🇳🇱 Netherlands: Three finals lost and counting

The Netherlands are a well-structured and tactically disciplined side capable of challenging top teams. Under Ronald Koeman, they have built a system that emphasises steady defence and quick transitions, which has produced decent results in recent competitions. Their form has been relatively consistent, though occasionally lacking the cutting edge needed to dominate elite opponents.

The Netherlands fans are ready for the game today 🍊 pic.twitter.com/TD1EzRbnit

— Football Chants (@FootyFansChants) July 2, 2024

The squad is strong across all areas, with a solid defensive foundation complemented by a technically skilled midfield and a dynamic attack. Key players such as Virgil van Dijk, Memphis Depay, and Cody Gakpo play crucial roles in maintaining balance and creating opportunities. The Netherlands have a rich footballing history, though recent decades have lacked major trophies, which adds motivation to this generation.

Koeman’s experience both at the club and international level gives the team a well-known style. If they can improve their attacking efficiency, the Netherlands have the potential to go far in the tournament. The Orange will start their campaign in group F with Japan, Sweden and Tunisia. However, they have both Germany and France in their potential path to the quarter-finals. Yet with the support of their passionate fans, the Dutch can do big things.

While the World Cup winning odds were known quite a long time ago, we now have plenty of other long-term betting markets available. In the table below, you’ll also find the odds for each of the top 5 favourites to win their group and to reach the final.

🏆 Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Prediction from MightyTips

Not trying to find any excuses, but this World Cup might be the most unpredictable in the XXI century. We have at least seven teams that are definitely capable of winning the tournament. With the new format, where we’ll have eight third-placed teams in the play-offs, trying to predict the full knockout bracket is a nightmare.

To be perfectly honest, we were choosing between Argentina and Brazil at first, just because every World Cup held in North or South America has been won by a team from the Americas. However, each of these teams has a serious disadvantage, which prevents us from making it an official pick.

In the end, we’ll opt for a highly unpopular choice. The Germans have a very young and exciting team that has already gained experience. Coach Nagelsmann is evolving, too, and the fact that Germany couldn’t make it past the group stage in the last two World Cups will only add to the motivation. They have an easy group, and physical conditions will always be there. Don’t forget - football is a game where 11 play against 11, and in the end, Germany wins.

Historical data on the number of World Cup triumphs and recent tournament winners could help you build a reliable betting strategy. Find this information in the table below.

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