UFC 333 Volkanovski vs Evloev: Betting tips and predictions

The previous UFC numbered event was a very modest one, but this is a completely different affair! Alexander Volkanovski will defend his featherweight title against Movsar Evloev. In another championship bout, we'll have a third fight between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili. This one is very interesting too, as both athletes have one victory so far, winning dominantly via unanimous decision.

In this article, we will provide UFC 333 betting predictions and tips ahead of the show at the Etihad Arena. We'll try to predict each bout to find the most valuable betting spots and advise on which fights to avoid in terms of betting.

Other notable names on the UFC 333 main card are Alexander Volkov, Ramazan Temirov and Aaron Pico. The prelims should be fun as well, as Azamat Murzakanov, Dominick Reyes, and Grant Dawson will all enter the cage this Saturday. Here’s the full schedule for the event in Abu Dhabi:

Main card

• Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev
• Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili
• Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov
• Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev
• Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita

Preliminaries

• Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes
• Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
• Abusupiyan Magomedov vs. Cameron Rowston
• Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev
• Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov
• Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun
• Bolaji Oki vs. Daniel Santos
• Kody Steele vs. Noah Gugnon
• Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicole Caliari

Read our UFC betting tips, as we begin with the main event and talk about every single fight on the card all the way to the early prelims, starting at 16:00 CET. One key point to focus on: long-term betting success comes from discipline and selectivity. Instead of betting on every fight, it’s better to target only those with the strongest value.

Main event: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev prediction

Although the statistics may favour Evloev, a Russian champion would likely be Uncle Dana's worst nightmare. Evloev is not the most exciting fighter, he speaks little English and competes relatively infrequently. Volkanovski may be past his prime, but keeping him on the ground for five rounds is no easy feat.

The champion is notoriously difficult to control and has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to get back to his feet. If Volk can consistently escape Evloev's grappling and force enough exchanges on the feet, he should have the edge in striking. I'm willing to take that chance and back Alexander Volkanovski to get the win.

Volkanovski wins by unanimous decision. And still!

Co-main event: Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili prediction

This is a tough matchup to call, as both Yan and Dvalishvili have repeatedly defied expectations throughout their careers. Still, Yan's performance in their second meeting was a masterclass, as he systematically broke Merab down over the course of the fight.

If Yan arrives at UFC 333 healthy and fully prepared, I expect him to retain his title. Dvalishvili's relentless cardio allows him to maintain an incredible pace for all five rounds, but constant pressure alone won't be enough. He needs to turn that aggression into effective takedowns and sustained control. Yan should defend the shots, get back to his feet, and keep the fight standing. His striking should give him the edge - likely by decision, as Dvalishvili is very hard to finish.
Prediction: Yan gets his hand raised, a 48-47 decision.

Featured fight: Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov prediction

This bout has every chance of winning the Fight of the Night bonus, as both athletes are incredibly fast and technical. Temirov is a knockout artist, which is quite a rare thing for the flyweight division. In his last seven fights, he won six times by KO/TKO in the very first round, with a decision victory over Charles Johnson being the only exception.

Kavanagh, meanwhile, lost to Johnson by knockout, although we all know that MMA math doesn't really work that way. He will be a bit bigger than his opponent, and his advantage on the ground is quite clear as well. However, this fight is likely to take place on the feet, and Kavanagh is there to be hit, as we saw in his last performance against Brandon Royval. I like Temirov here, and while betting him to win at even money looks solid, you might want to add some meat to the bone by opting for his knockout victory.

Prediction: Temirov finds a knockout in the first part of the fight.

Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev prediction

Guess what, the UFC once again cheated on Volkov. While he should be fighting for the title against Ciryl Gane, whom he clearly defeated in their second bout, it's Josh Hockit who gets a chance. Volkov now faces a very dangerous guy in Kuniev, who should be stronger on the mat. Yet I can't see him holding Volkov on the ground for long, and the latter has far more technical striking.

The only problem here is Volkov's age. He has 51 professional fights under his belt, which is a lot. While Volkov will have a four-inch reach advantage, he is four years older than his opponent, celebrating his 38th birthday on the day of the event. Not a critical age for the heavyweight, but the damage is adding up fight by fight. Still, I'm taking Volkov's side in this one, as I believe he has every tool to outstrike his opponent while managing to stop the takedowns by Kuniev.

Prediction: Volkov earns a decision victory, only to be denied a title fight opportunity once again.

Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita prediction

This is the fourth even-money fight of the main card, and another clash between a grappler and a striker. Pico is an elite wrestler, although most of his MMA wins came by KO/TKO. Keita has incredible power for a featherweight, as 11 knockout victories speak for themselves. Make sure to rewatch his highlight KO against Muhammad Naimov in September.

Pico was supposed to face Arnold Allen, yet the latter withdrew a month ago, and Keita accepted the fight two weeks after beating Naimov. He should be in great shape, and we can't really talk about the short-notice challenge. I really like Keita in this spot, especially because Pico previously lost four times by knockout. You can't trust his chin at such odds, and there's only one winner for me here. Keita's moneyline at 2.05 is more than enough for my money, although his knockout victory is the most likely scenario.

Prediction: Keita by KO/TKO.

Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes prediction

While Reyes somewhat revamped his career, winning four of the five previous fights, this is another athlete with a glass jaw. The man who arguably beat Jon Jones has four knockout losses, including the one against Carlos Ulberg a year ago. Murzakanov is coming to this clash after a head kick knockout loss against Paulo Costa in April, yet he took way less damage during his career.

Murzakanov possesses devastating power, which should guarantee him another finish in Abu Dhabi, where he knocked out Alonzo Menifield and Aleksandar Rakić before. The chin of Reyes is the biggest factor here, and I can't see him keeping Murzakanov at a distance. The latter finding a KO is the only realistic outcome in this scrap.

Prediction: Murzakanov by a knockout in the very first round.

Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev prediction

The story of washed fighters continues with Krylov, another athlete with tons of damage taken. The Miner was knocked out in three of his previous four fights, and Robert Whittaker broke his jaw in July. The injuries are taking over Krylov slowly but surely, and I believe he will be cut from the UFC after this event

Meanwhile, Yakhyaev is an unbeaten fighter who won all three bouts in the promotion by a first-round finish. What's even more impressive is that it went to a decision in just one of his 10 previous fights. Yakhayev certainly can wrestle, with five submissions under his belt, yet a knockout is written all over this one.

Prediction: Yakhayev earns a bonus with a first-round knockout.

Abusupiyan Magomedov vs. Cameron Rowston prediction

Another even-money fight awaits us here, and Magomedov has a clear path to victory in this one. While the athletes have quite similar skills on the feet, Magomedov should have an advantage in grappling and, likely, cardio. Rowston has more volume; however, he doesn't possess that much power. Another big plus for Magomedov is the level of opposition he faced before.

All three of Rowston's wins in the UFC came against low-level opponents, and none of them were able to wrestle. Magomedov can do that and should do that, and while he is five years older, that won't be a key aspect in this bout. His moneyline at 1.80 looks very promising to me because he is a more well-rounded fighter at this point.

Prediction: Magomedov wins a 29-28 decision.

Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev prediction

This fight is likely to be hated by most MMA casuals, as we have two grapplers facing each other. Dawson had chin issues before, as being knocked out by a jab is never a good sign. Yet he won't be too concerned about it here. While there's a chance we'll see some striking exchanges, the fight going the distance is written all over this one.

Both guys are good at ground control, and while Dawson has 14 submission victories under his belt, Aliev is a decision fighter all the way. Besides that, you can't really compare the opposition these athletes faced previously. Those two factors are key for me in choosing Dawson to win. One last thing to note: don't be surprised if Aliev gets cut from the UFC after winning, as his style just doesn't fit the promotion. Just ask Farid Basharat.

Prediction: Dawson gets a unanimous decision victory.

Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov prediction

Thicknesse, the sparring partner of Alex Volkanovski, lost in his UFC debut to Aleksandre Topuria, but managed to win the next two fights by decision. Still, the undefeated debutant Chopurov is the biggest favourite on the card along with Yakhyaev, sitting at 1.18. First of all, betting on the debutant at such low odds is never a good idea, as we can't really know his level at the moment.

Thicknesse is 100% weaker, but Chopurov has never fought in front of such a big crowd. I can see a big future in the promotion for him, but the lack of experience at this level can always lead to a fraud check. Chopurov will likely get his hand raised by knockout, but this bout is a pass from my side.

Prediction: Chopurov by a late knockout. It's the first pass of the card for me.

Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun prediction

Vagaev is a decision machine, winning 20 of his 29 professional fights by this method. That will be his first bout in the UFC middleweight division, as cutting weight seems to be too hard nowadays for the 33-year-old. He had cardio problems previously, but moving up a weight class might solve the problem.

Malkoun is a dangerous opponent, and he'll have an anthropometric advantage. However, you can't really call him a knockout artist, and Vagaev should win by simple ground control. He might get tired by the third round, but by that time he will be leading 20-18. I have a Vagaev victory by unanimous decision here.

Prediction: Vagaev prevails by a 29-28 decision

Bolaji Oki vs. Daniel Santos prediction

This should be a very entertaining bout for everyone, and I really doubt either fighter will have more than a minute of ground control. Oki will have a size and reach advantage, yet Santos is the more polished and dangerous fighter. The problem with the Brazilian is that he takes lots of damage even in the fights he won.

Coming in after a knockout loss to Choi Doo-ho in May, Santos has a good chance to bounce back against Oki. The latter was knocked out in his previous two fights, and he might be cut from the UFC in case of losing this fight. This will only add to the pressure, and I'll predict another defeat by KO for the Belgian. A submission is also possible, so Santos' moneyline at 1.83 is my play.
Prediction: Santos by knockout in the first half of the fight.

Kody Steele vs. Noah Gugnon prediction

Both fighters celebrated their first UFC wins recently, and now it's time for someone to earn the second one. Steele will try to get the fight to the mat, as he's the better grappler of the two. The American had problems doing that before, and if he fails, Gugnon would likely have the advantage on the feet.

To be honest, with so many exciting fights between proven athletes on the card, I don't really want to deal with this one. We have very limited info on both fighters, and I'd use this bout to get some more. If you just have to bet on this fight, which you don't, opt for the underdog, Gugnon, at 2.30. It's a pass for my money.
Prediction: Gugnon finds a late knockout. Just pass this one.

Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicole Caliari prediction

This one is simple, and I am not going to write a poem about it. In the only women's bout of the event, Lucindo shouldn't have any problems whatsoever. She is better both on the ground and on the feet, and experience is another major factor. However, the odds on her winning sit at 1.26 only, which is pathetic for a low-level women's MMA encounter. It's a pass all the way.
Prediction: Lucindo wins a 30-27 decision. We suggest passing this bout altogether.

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