UFC 328 Chimaev vs Strickland: Betting tips and predictions

By Deniss Novickis | Published: May 8, 2026, 10:30

The upcoming UFC event in Newark, New Jersey, is probably the best in the Paramount era so far, as this card is just stacked top to bottom. Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland will fight for the middleweight championship in the main event. The co-main event is another title bout: Joshua Van and Tatsuro Taira were supposed to meet at the previous numbered UFC showcase. However, this flyweight championship fight was rescheduled for May 9.

In this article, we will provide UFC 328 betting predictions and tips ahead of the show in New Jersey. We’ll try to forecast each fight, find the most valuable betting spots, and advise on which bouts to avoid to just enjoy the show.

The UFC 328 main card also has a great featured bout between top heavyweights, Alexander Volkov and Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Other notable names on the card include Sean Brady, Joaquin Buckley, King Green, Ateba Gautier, Yaroslav Amosov, and Grant Dawson. Finally, we must mention the legendary Jim Miller, who holds the all-time record with 46 (!) UFC fights. Here’s the full schedule for the event in Newark:

Main card

• Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland
• Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira
• Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
• Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley
• King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens

Preliminary card

• Ateba Gautier vs. Osman Diaz
• Joel Álvarez vs. Yaroslav Amosov
• Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rębecki
• Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon

• Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio
• Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis
• Baisangur Susurkaev vs. Djorden Santos
• Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa

Read our UFC betting tips, as we start with the main event and break down every fight all the way to the early prelims, starting at 23:00 CET on May 9. One key point to keep in mind: long-term betting success comes from discipline and selectivity. Instead of betting on every fight, it’s better to target only those with the strongest value.

THIS WAS INEVITABLE 👀@KChimaev vs @SStricklandMMA

[ #UFC328 | MAY 9 | 9pmET | LIVE on @ParamountPlus ] pic.twitter.com/Rm4OSEWSa7

— UFC (@ufc) May 7, 2026

Main event: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland prediction

The tension has been brewing since the sparring together, and Strickland’s recent comments have only added fuel to the fire. Stylistically, this fight could resemble Chimaev’s battle with Dricus du Plessis, where wrestling control and positional dominance dictated the action. If the bout follows that pattern, it’s difficult to see Strickland doing enough to swing momentum in his favour. However, if he can anticipate the entries, shut down the takedowns, and force the fight to remain standing, this matchup becomes significantly closer than the betting line suggests.

From a betting perspective, Chimaev looks overpriced as such a heavy favourite. His moneyline at 1.17 is just a joke. You might want to bet Chimaev by SUB at 1.95, but Strickland was never submitted in his 37-fight career and has decent wrestling defence. Besides, he has cardio for days, holding a significant advantage over Borz in this aspect. At the current odds, the value sits with Tarzan. Bear in mind, he was as big of an underdog in the title fight against Israel Adesanya. The wise decision is to pass this fight, but we’ll bet a quarter of a unit on Strickland at crazy odds of 5.25.
Prediction: Strickland shocks the world again, let’s say it’s a knockout in the fourth or fifth round.

Co-main event: Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira prediction

Van won the belt due to Alexandre Pantoja injuring his arm 26 seconds into the title fight. While we won’t know how that bout would unfold, there’s a strong feeling that Van’s reign will not last long. He withdrew a month ago because of a minor injury, but now it’s finally the time to fight Taira, and UFC would simply love this guy to become a champion to magnify the Asian market.

Taira has elite wrestling, and Van was already taken down by much weaker opponents. To add to it, the Japanese athlete has significantly improved his striking game, and he will be bigger than Van as well. The latter will always have a chance for the lucky punch, being incredibly strong for a flyweight. Yet it all points to Taira, who will surely take Van down multiple times. Submission, ground & pound or decision - that’s the real question. However, the Taira moneyline is currently at 1.57, and that is a reasonable price. If the odds are too low for you, that might be a good parlay piece as well.
Prediction: Taira finds a finish. Gun to the head - it’s a SUB in the third round.

Featured fight: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta prediction

Next comes the heavyweight fight that doesn’t mean a thing in the division. Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane will fight for the title in the White House, and then there’s Tom Aspinall, who hasn’t even resumed training yet. Cortes-Acosta jumped up to №4 in the division thanks to three victories in a row, all by knockout.

The Salsa Boy probably thinks he is a KO artist now, but the upcoming bout will destroy this illusion. He has never faced an opponent of Volkov’s calibre, and if you rewatch his last loss, against Sergei Pavlovich, this is exactly the scenario we will see on Saturday night. Volkov is simply more technical, and he will have a speed and reach advantage as well. Cortes-Acosta was never knocked out before, but this might be the first time, although Volkov by decision is a more likely outcome. As for us, the 1.57 moneyline on Volkov is a sure choice in this one. Volkov and Taira winning is a 2.46 parlay that is destined to hit.

Prediction: Volkov wins a 30-27 decision.

Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley prediction

Brady was on a three-fight winning streak and thinking about a title shot after a few more victories, but Michael Morales demolished him inside the first round. There are a couple of problems with Brady, the first of which is - he doesn’t like to be hit, a fatal thing in this sport. He is also a bit chinny, as otherwise he wouldn’t be knocked out by the former champion, Belal Muhammad.

Kamaru Usman showed in June 2025 how you can beat Buckley, and the latter was on a 6-bout winning streak at the moment. Can Brady repeat the trick by shooting takedowns and holding his opponent on the ground? We believe he can’t. Buckley is a very athletic guy, and if he manages to keep the fight on the feet, Brady will lose by knockout for the third time in his career. This actually is a great underdog at 2.40, and if you want to boost the odds, take Buckley by KO at 3.50, as it is his most realistic path to victory.

Prediction: Buckley by KO/TKO.

King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens prediction

While Green’s chin is nowhere near as good to be in the rankings, he won his last two fights, including an impressive knockout of Daniel Zellhuber. A very skilful boxer, Green will be 40 in September, never a good thing for a lightweight. However, it’s all about the opposition in this one. Stephens is also 39 years old, he won just one of his last 10 fights, and his previous victory in the UFC came in February 2018 (!).

The betting options are very simple in this one. You never bet Green at 1.29, even against a 90-year-old lady. In the meantime, he should pick Stephens apart, so if you just have to bet this fight, take Green by KO/TKO at 3.30, or bet Green by decision at 2.15, if you believe that Stephens will survive until the judges’ scorecards. It’s a pass from our side, but the bout should be entertaining enough without a bet.

Prediction: Green knocks Stephens out in the second half of the fight. We are passing this one.

😬🤼‍♂️ That one time when Yaroslav Amosov got the better of Khamzat Chimaev when they were wrestling in Tiger Muay Thai. pic.twitter.com/r3a8b9fGsH

— Full Mount MMA (@MMAFullMount) April 4, 2026

Ateba Gautier vs. Osman Diaz prediction

A highly rated middleweight prospect, Gautier won all four of his fights in the UFC. The first three were knockouts, but his latest bout cost us dearly. The Cameroonian couldn’t put Andrey Pulyaev away early, and at some point started to fight very predictably and monotonously, throwing one overhand after another. He still won a decision, but it was quite a nervous one. A classy opponent will surely punish Gautier for such tactics.

Luckily for Gautier’s fans, his next opponent will be much weaker than the previous one. Diaz has already lost three fights via knockout, and this will be the fourth one. However, the inexperience of Gautier and the odds of 1.22 on his win by KO/TKO make us pass this fight altogether. A highlight-reel KO is incoming, though.

Prediction: Gautier by murder. Just pass this fight.

Joel Álvarez vs. Yaroslav Amosov prediction

This is a classic striker versus grappler matchup. MMA fans who don’t follow any other promotion except for UFC might not know Amosov that well, but this guy is a real threat. A veteran of 30 professional fights and a former Bellator welterweight champion, he has elite wrestling. The question here is whether he’ll be smart enough to avoid striking exchanges against such a dangerous opponent as Álvarez, who is moving up a weight class.

Being significantly bigger, Amosov will take Álvarez down with ease and is surely capable of holding him on the mat. If he decides to strike, the Spaniard has every chance of winning, and Amosov was already knocked once, when he lost his Bellator belt. That was his sole professional defeat, and we believe that the Ukrainian has learned his lesson. He should win this bout comfortably. The moneyline sits at 1.57, while Amosov by decision at 2.50 looks much better.
Prediction: Amosov wins a unanimous decision.

Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rębecki prediction

Dawson is another wrestler who just hates to be hit. His chin is very questionable, as you usually don’t get knocked out via a jab by Bobby Green. The American was brutally finished by Manuel Torres just five months ago. Now he comes up against Rębecki, who is equally good on the feet and on the mat.

The Polish athlete has decent defensive grappling, so he should stop the takedowns. His striking is much better, and, what’s even more important, he will always fight for your money and will never give up. We are very surprised that Rębecki is the underdog here. Either the bookies know something we don’t, or this is a real value bet. Rębecki will win at least 6 fights out of 10 against Dawson; therefore, his moneyline at 2.40 looks like a gift.

Prediction: Rębecki gets his hand raised by KO/TKO.

Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon prediction

This feels like a classic experience-versus-pressure encounter. Miller, a veteran of 46 UFC fights, is still dangerous everywhere despite the mileage, and his submission game remains a major threat whenever scrambles appear. Gordon is the more active and durable fighter at this stage. Expect him to push a high pace, mix in clinch work, and try to overwhelm Miller with volume over three rounds.

The longer the fight goes, the more it should favour Gordon’s cardio and consistency. Miller will have moments early, especially if he can force grappling exchanges, but Gordon’s ability to stay composed and keep working should help him edge the minutes. Unless Miller finds a submission opportunity, Gordon’s pressure likely carries him to a decision victory. However, that outcome can be had at 1.90 only, so pass is the choice here.
Prediction: Gordon by unanimous decision, but we recommend passing this one.

Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio prediction

Another fight where we just can’t understand why one athlete is such a big underdog. Ok, Kopylov lost his last two fights, but look at the opposition - it’s Paulo Costa and Gregory Rodrigues. Kopylov’s body kicks, patience, and ability to manage distance make him difficult to pressure recklessly. Tulio is aggressive and dangerous early, but this matchup feels tailored to Kopylov’s counter-striking style.

If Tulio, who has never beaten an opponent of Kopylov’s class, pushes forward without respect for the angles, he’s likely to walk into clean combinations repeatedly. The question is whether Tulio can force ugly exchanges and disrupt Kopylov’s rhythm before the striking battle settles. We expect Kopylov to pick shots carefully, damage the body, and gradually break Tulio down as the fight progresses. While the knockout might be on the cards, Kopylov’s moneyline at 2.60 is more than enough here.
Prediction: Kopylov wins a unanimous decision.

Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis prediction

This matchup likely comes down to whether Sabatini can consistently close the distance. On the feet, Gomis is the cleaner and more fluid striker, using movement and range well to frustrate his opponents. Sabatini’s clearest path is through wrestling and top control, where he can neutralise the striking and force long grappling sequences.

The concern for Gomis is that he sometimes allows opponents too much space in clinch situations, which could give Sabatini opportunities to drag the fight down repeatedly. If Sabatini establishes control early, he can bank rounds and make this a grinding fight. Gomis will have success striking at range, but over three rounds, Sabatini’s wrestling pressure should be the deciding factor.

Prediction: Sabatini wins a 29-28 decision.

Baisangur Susurkaev vs. Djorden Santos prediction

Chimaev’s sparring partner was as big a favourite in his previous bout against low-level Eric McConico, when he managed to find a knockout in the third round only. Santos is stronger than McConico, and he has never been knocked out in his career. He already has a victory in the UFC against Danny Barlow, who is a pretty good fighter.

Susurkaev should win here thanks to better striking technique, but his moneyline at 1.14 is an awful bet, especially considering he loves showmanship and often fights with his hands down. If you want a little risk, bet him winning by decision at 3.00. It’s an obvious pass from our side based on all the reasons listed above.

Prediction: Susurkaev via 30-27 decision, as Santos survives all three rounds. We can’t see any value bets in this bout.

Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa prediction

The early prelims will begin with another grappler versus striker duel, and we’ll go with the latter. Ochoa is miles ahead of Carpenter in terms of striking, while his defence from takedowns should have improved since the last fight, as he is just 25 years of age. We just can’t see Carpenter holding the Peruvian on the ground for the majority of this fight.

That said, the moneyline for Ochoa sits at 1.55, and in this case, it’s not a good bet to make. His victory by decision at 2.45 is the most logical choice, and the bookmakers believe it’s the most realistic outcome of this clash. However, pass is the better option, as Ochoa has a chance to knock Carpenter out as well, while the American can win a close decision too.

Prediction: Ochoa by decision. Start the card with a pass.

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