Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev: Odds and prediction for UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: September 28, 2026, 13:00

Alexander Volkanovski is set to face yet another tough test late in his career. The Australian takes on unbeaten Movsar Evloev for the UFC featherweight title. Evloev enters the biggest fight of his career with a perfect 20-0 record, looking to finally take the belt from one of the greatest featherweights in UFC history.

Their title fight will headline UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi on October 24 at 23:00 CET. In this Volkanovski vs Evloev prediction, we will break down the latest odds, compare both fighters' stats and recent performances, and give you our take on the matchup.

The odds are extremely close, with betting sites struggling to separate Volkanovski and Evloev. Bet365 has both fighters level at 1.90, while other operators slightly favour one or the other. Overall, the market suggests there is very little between the champion and the unbeaten challenger.

Evloev has a small physical edge heading into this matchup. The Russian has a one-inch reach advantage, measuring 72.5 inches compared to Volkanovski's 71.5 inches, and is also slightly taller.

The five-year age gap could be more important. Volkanovski has significantly more championship experience, but at 37, maintaining the speed and explosiveness required at featherweight becomes increasingly difficult.

Volk looked like he might be on his way to retirement after the losses to Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria. The Topuria knockout in particular raised plenty of questions about whether Volkanovski could still compete at the very top of the division. However, he has proved himself as champion once again, beating Diego Lopes in two back-to-back fights, both by unanimous decision.

Volkanovski is clearly not at his physical peak anymore, but his experience and fight IQ remain huge strengths. On the feet, he should have a clear advantage over Evloev. Volkanovski is much more comfortable striking, constantly changing angles, using his jab, low kicks and feints to control distance.

The biggest question is how he handles Evloev’s wrestling. Alex has excellent takedown defence and is very difficult to keep on the ground, something we saw against Makhachev.

Volkanovski's last fights

Evloev might be one of the most boring fighters among the UFC's top contenders, but it is difficult to argue with the results. The Russian remains unbeaten at 20-0, and his approach has been incredibly consistent: close the distance, wrestle, control his opponent and win rounds. Every one of his UFC fights has gone to a decision, so there is very little mystery surrounding what he will try to do against Volkanovski.

Evloev most recently beat Lerone Murphy by decision after another wrestling-heavy performance. Before that, he also earned an impressive decision victory over Aljamain Sterling, showing that his grappling works even against some of the UFC's strongest wrestlers.

Evloev is unlikely to want a prolonged striking battle with Volkanovski. He does not necessarily need to dominate the Australian on the ground. Simply forcing repeated scrambles and making the old man work could become increasingly effective.

Evloev's last fights

Most of the facts may point towards an Evloev win, but the Russian becoming champion would probably be Uncle Dana's worst nightmare. He is not a spectacular fighter, does not really speak English and fights relatively rarely. 

Volkanovski might not be the freshest, but controlling him on the ground for five rounds is a very hard task. The champion is extremely difficult to hold down and has repeatedly shown that he can find his way back to his feet. If Volk can keep escaping Evloev's grappling and force enough exchanges on the feet, he should have the striking advantage. We'll take our chances with the champion here and back Alexander Volkanovski to win.

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