Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili: Odds and prediction for UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: September 29, 2026, 14:15

The co-main event of UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi will see Petr Yan defend his bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili in the third chapter of their rivalry. The score is currently even, with both fighters having cracked each other’s puzzle once.

Neither fighter has competed since that second matchup in December 2025, meaning both have had plenty of time to recover, make adjustments and prepare. Yan vs Dvalishvili 3 is scheduled for October 24 at 22:30 CET. Read our preview as we analyse both fighters, break down the matchup and give our prediction for who leaves Abu Dhabi with the bantamweight belt.

Yan heads into the third fight as the clear favourite following his dominant performance against Dvalishvili in their rematch. The champion can be backed at around 1.55 across betting sites. Meanwhile, Dvalishvili is priced at around 2.50 to get his revenge.

There is not much separating the two fighters physically. Yan is two years younger at 33, while Dvalishvili holds an insignificant one-inch reach advantage despite being slightly shorter.

A few years ago, Yan looked like a fallen soldier. No Mercy had lost three fights in a row, including defeats to Aljamain Sterling, Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili. Since then, however, Yan has completely turned things around. He is now riding a four-fight winning streak, reclaimed the bantamweight belt and, most importantly, stopped Merab’s incredible winning run in their rematch.

Yan is one of the most complete fighters in the division. His boxing is excellent, but his takedown defence could be even more important in this matchup. In their second fight, Merab landed only two of his 29 takedown attempts, which completely changed the dynamic compared to their first meeting.

Yan rarely gives too much away tactically. He is usually very cautious in the early rounds, studies his opponent and looks for opportunities to counter rather than forcing the action. Against Merab, the plan should be similar. If Yan can once again stay on his feet and avoid getting dragged into constant wrestling exchanges, his superior striking will be his biggest weapon.

Yan’s last fights

Dvalishvili had been absurdly active before his second fight with Yan. The rematch was his fourth title fight in the space of a year, and at some point, The Machine simply needed a proper break. He has now had almost a year away from competition, giving him time to recover, make adjustments and return with the cardio that made him such a nightmare for the entire division.

Merab’s game is built around relentless pressure and wrestling. He does not need every takedown attempt to work because he will immediately move into the next one, constantly forcing his opponent to defend and spend energy. We have seen that approach work against O’Malley, Umar Nurmagomedov and Cory Sandhagen.

The big concern is what happened in the Yan rematch, where Merab struggled to impose his usual game. His team says we will see a different version of Dvalishvili at UFC 333, and after a long period of recovery, it will be interesting to see what adjustments he brings to the trilogy.

Dvalishvili's last fights

This is a difficult fight to predict because both Yan and Dvalishvili have repeatedly found ways to surprise us. However, the way Yan broke Merab down in their second meeting was a masterclass. 

If Yan enters UFC 333 healthy and well prepared, we expect him to keep the belt. Merab has monster cardio and can maintain an exhausting pace for five rounds, but that only works if he can turn his pressure into meaningful control. If he cannot consistently take Yan down and keep him there, the fight should favour the champion. 

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