Spain vs Argentina prediction and betting odds on World Cup final 2026

By Deniss Novickis | Published: July 16, 2026, 08:52

Spain and Argentina will meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup final on Sunday in New Jersey. The defending European champions against the current world champions. The best defence of the tournament against the most dangerous attack. The best player of the outgoing generation against the top performer of the current one. This mouthwatering clash is simply ideal for the deciding match.

We take a look at the odds ahead of the battle at MetLife Stadium, talk about the styles of both teams and squad news, provide head-to-head stats and some key facts before making our World Cup final prediction and offering another value betting option.

According to the World Cup final odds, Spain are the favourites to win the final, sitting at 2.30. Argentina can be had at 3.50, while the odds of a draw after 90 minutes are 3.00. The odds of Spain lifting the trophy are 1.61, and you can bet Argentina to defend the title at 2.30.

Spain had an ideal path to the final, improving match by match. They started with an awful display against Cape Verde, which led to Vozinha having over 29 million subscribers on Instagram, but they have won every match since, playing very confidently. La Roja are true to their classic tiki-taka, but now they are much more direct, which makes their style even more dangerous.

Lamine Yamal is the most creative player in the team, doing all he wants on the left wing. Mikel Oyarzabal is very effective as the centre forward, while we also must mention the endless energy of full-backs Pedro Porro and Marc Cucurella. Spain also boast the best defence of the tournament along with Colombia, conceding a single goal so far.

While Spain look almost unbeatable in the play-offs, there is still a weakness that can be exploited. Believe it or not, it’s the goalkeeper Unai Simón, who made silly mistakes in every knockout match, coming out of goal when there was no need to. In the final, where every error could be costly, Simón should stay in the net and not give scoring chances to the opposition. Coach Luis de la Fuente has a full squad to choose from, and we all can name his starting XI right now.

Spain’s latest matches on World Cup

• 15.06 Spain vs Capo Verde (Group Stage): 0-0
• 21.06 Spain vs Saudi Arabia (Group Stage): 4-0
• 27.06 Spain vs Uruguay (Group Stage): 1-0
• 02.07 Spain vs Austria (Round of 32): 3-0
• 06.07 Spain vs Portugal (Round of 16): 1-0
• 10.07 Spain vs Belgium (Quarter-final): 2-1
• 14.07 Spain vs France (Semi-final): 2-0

La Albiceleste had quite an opposite route to New Jersey, as they were invincible at the group stage, scoring eight goals and conceding just one. However, the defence decided to take a break during the play-offs, as the Argentinians let in six goals in four knockout matches. The genius of Lionel Messi is the most obvious reason for their success, as the GOAT now leads the Golden Boot race with eight goals and four assists.

Besides that, they have an amazing goalkeeper in Emiliano Martínez, while Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernández work tirelessly in the middle of the pitch. Lautaro Martinez, a very experienced striker, lost his place in the starting line-up during the tournament, but he came from the bench to score the winner in the semi-finals against England.

Argentina scored 19 goals, three more than their closest rivals, but much of their attack depends on Messi. If Spain find a way to neutralise him, it’s hard to see someone else stepping up in a match of this importance. Fatigue might be another factor - Argentina have a day less to recover, and they have also played an extra 60 minutes of football in the play-offs. Just like his counterpart, Lionel Scaloni has everyone fit and ready to go.

The Final is set: 🇪🇸🆚🇦🇷#FIFAWorldCup pic.twitter.com/3M7bZ7cXjD

— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) July 15, 2026

Argentina’s latest matches on World Cup

• 17.06 Argentina vs Algeria (Group Stage): 3-0
• 22.06 Argentina vs Austria (Group Stage): 2-0
• 28.06 Argentina vs Jordan (Group Stage): 3-1
• 02.07 Argentina vs Cape Verde (Round of 32): 3-2 (AET)
• 06.07 Argentina vs Egypt (Round of 16): 3-2
• 10.07 Argentina vs Switzerland (Quarter-final): 3-1 (AET)
• 15.07 Argentina vs England (Semi-final): 2-1

• These are the top two teams in the FIFA rankings: Argentina occupy the first spot, with Spain just behind.
• The sides have met 14 times, and it’s dead-even at the moment: each team has six victories with two more games ending in draws.
• The sole World Cup game between the teams took place in 1966 when Argentina celebrated a 2-1 win in the group stage thanks to two goals by Luis Artime.
• Spain won three of the previous four meetings, including a 6-1 victory in the last match in 2018.
• Nicolás Otamendi, Nicolás Tagliafico, Giovani Lo Celso and Lautaro Martínez played for Argentina in that friendly, while Leandro Paredes was an unused substitute. Rodri was on the bench for Spain.
• This is the second World Cup final for Spain, who defeated the Netherlands 1-0 in extra time in 2010.
• Argentina will play in the final for the seventh time. They were victorious in 1978, 1986 and 2022, but lost the finals in 1930, 1990 and 2014.

Given the way Spain are performing in the play-offs, it’s very hard to see them fail on Sunday night. They will surely have most of the ball, while Argentina might lack speed to catch them on the break. The Spaniards are much younger and have more energy. Obviously, you can never count Messi out, as age is not bothering him whatsoever. Still, even if he creates a goal, which is a possible scenario, Spain have more firepower and a better bench in case de la Fuente needs to switch the tactics. It’s just one game, always unpredictable, yet everything points in Spain’s direction, and that is our FIFA World Cup 2026 final prediction.

If Unai Simón manages to stay in goal, Spain have a great chance of keeping a clean sheet. They will have more scoring chances and, once again, Argentina are not infallible at the back. If Spain go in front, they will have space on the opponents’ half, and we saw in the game against France what they can do in such conditions. For me, the likeliest result is Spain winning to nil, say 2-0.

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