F1 Belgian Grand Prix 2026: Predictions and betting preview

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: 16 July, 2026, 12:30

After a dramatic British Grand Prix that saw Charles Leclerc claim a long-awaited victory for Ferrari, the Formula One season moves on to another legendary venue. This weekend, the paddock heads to Belgium and the iconic Spa-Francorchamps, one of the longest and most demanding circuits on the calendar.

Once again, it is time for our analysis and predictions for the upcoming race.

After the sprint weekend in Britain, Formula One returns to a traditional race weekend format in Belgium, giving teams more practice time to fine-tune their setups before qualifying.

Spa-Francorchamps is one of the most iconic and demanding circuits of the season. The track features several legendary high-speed corners, including Eau Rouge, Pouhon and Blanchimont, while also mixing in a handful of slow, tight sections.

At over 7 km in length, Spa is the longest circuit on the Formula One calendar. Because of its size, it also has the fewest race laps of the season, with drivers completing just 44 laps on Sunday. 

Red Bull

It was a disastrous weekend for Max Verstappen at Silverstone, as his race ended in the barriers after another loss of rear stability. He also lost control during qualifying in Austria, suggesting the team’s new “Macarena” rear wing may be struggling to reattach airflow when the wing closes at high speed.

This is something Red Bull needs to solve quickly. Spa-Francorchamps features several long straights followed by some of the fastest corners, where rear stability is crucial. Unless the team finds a fix before Belgium, Verstappen and his teammate, Isack Hadjar, could once again be vulnerable through high-speed sections despite the car’s strong straight-line speed.

McLaren

The British Grand Prix brought mixed results for McLaren. The team introduced upgrades at Silverstone, but they did not deliver the expected improvement. McLaren were arguably only the fourth-fastest team over the weekend, although Lando Norris still managed to recover a solid fourth-place finish.

Oscar Piastri had a much more difficult race after losing his front wing early on, which effectively ruined his chances of a strong result. McLaren will now use the extra practice time in Belgium to better understand the upgraded car. Norris has been in excellent form for most of the season, and another top-five challenge looks realistic at Spa.

Ferrari

Ferrari finally returned to the top step of the podium at Silverstone, with Charles Leclerc claiming the team’s second victory of the season. It was Leclerc’s first Grand Prix win since 2024, ending a long spell of bad luck. He looked comfortable throughout the race and consistently matched the pace of teammate Lewis Hamilton.

Despite the victory, Ferrari may still need Mercedes to run into problems if they want to fight for another win at Spa-Francorchamps. However, a double podium is certainly within reach. Leclerc has historically been very strong at Spa, and if Ferrari can maintain their recent form, there is every reason to believe he can be in the mix at the front once again.

Mercedes

Silverstone was another frustrating weekend for Mercedes despite showing race-winning pace. Kimi Antonelli looked on course for what could have been an almost certain victory. He was rapidly closing the gap to Charles Leclerc before damaging his car while riding the kerbs on corner exit.

George Russell had a quieter weekend and was the slower of the two Mercedes drivers, but he still managed to score valuable points and reduce the gap in the championship standings. Looking ahead to Spa, Mercedes should once again have one of the strongest packages on the grid. If Antonelli can avoid reliability or damage issues, he has every chance of starting the weekend as one of the favourites for victory.

Qualifying and Pole Position

Charles Leclerc is our pick to take pole position for the Belgian Grand Prix. His confidence should be sky-high after a superb victory at Silverstone, where Ferrari finally gave him a car capable of fighting at the front.

Podium Prediction

1st place: Kimi Antonelli

Kimi Antonelli has had the pace to win several races recently, but bad luck and reliability issues have repeatedly denied him victory. If Mercedes delivers a clean weekend, Antonelli should finally convert his speed into another win.

2nd place: Charles Leclerc

Charles Leclerc gets the nod for second place thanks to his outstanding record at Spa-Francorchamps. Fresh off his Silverstone victory, the Ferrari driver should once again be one of the quickest drivers throughout the weekend.

3rd place: Lewis Hamilton

The seven-time world champion finished on the podium again at Silverstone and continues to extract consistent results from the Ferrari. His experience at Spa should help him secure another top-three finish.

Dark Horses

Liam Lawson is our dark horse pick for a top-six finish at the Belgian Grand Prix. He finished sixth at Silverstone, where Racing Bulls appeared to be the strongest midfield team across the weekend. The team are also likely to have an advantage over Alpine, giving Lawson a realistic opportunity to score another strong result and challenge the leading teams if any of the favourites run into trouble.

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