2026 World Cup group stage predictions: New format & new rules
By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: June 5, 2026, 13:15

Germany arrive at the 2026 FIFA World Cup hoping to finally put their recent tournament disappointments behind them. The four-time world champions suffered back-to-back group-stage exits in 2018 and 2022, but there is renewed optimism under Julian Nagelsmann after encouraging progress over the past two years.
The odds on Germany winning the World Cup sit at 13.00. Nagelsmann's side received a favourable group-stage draw and have made major improvements over the past two years. Bookmakers are also giving Die Mannschaft a realistic chance of making the final, with odds of 6.00 available in that market.
| Team | Odds to win | Odds to reach the final |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 5.50 | 3.25 |
| 🇫🇷 France | 6.00 | 3.75 |
| 🏴 England | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 21.00 | 9.00 |
Germany are strong favourites to win Group E and should be targeting nine points from their three matches. After the disappointments of the last two World Cups, they will be eager to make a fast start and avoid any unnecessary drama.
Ecuador have been impressive throughout qualification, finishing ahead of several traditional powers. They're building success on a disciplined defence that conceded very few goals. The Ecuadorians may not be the most exciting team in the tournament, but they are difficult to break down.
The Ivorians return to the World Cup for the first time since 2014 and possess a talented squad capable of causing problems. Ivory Coast will fancy their chances of competing with Ecuador for second place.
Curaçao are one of the feel-good stories of the tournament after reaching their first-ever World Cup. However, they face a difficult task against three much more experienced sides. Simply earning a point would represent a historic achievement.
| ⚽ | To win group E | To qualify from group E |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 1.28 | 1.03 |
| 🇪🇨 Ecuador | 5.00 | 1.10 |
| 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast | 8.00 | 1.22 |
| 🇨🇼 Curaçao | 101.00 | 8.00 |
Germany could hardly have asked for a better opening fixture. The gap in quality between the sides is significant. Anything other than a comfortable victory would be one of the biggest shocks of the opening week.
This is likely to be Germany's most entertaining group-stage match. Ivory Coast return to the World Cup after a 12-year absence and possess plenty of attacking talent. Germany should still have enough quality to take all three points, but this fixture may prove more competitive than the market expects. If you're willing to bet on Germany in the World Cup, under 2.5 goals at 2.00 offers good value.
Ecuador could already have qualification within reach by the final group game. The South Americans conceded just five goals during qualification. Germany will probably have more possession, but breaking Ecuador down could be a difficult task.
Bookmakers fully expect Germany to progress from Group E and reach the play-offs. The most likely outcomes are an exit in the Round of 32 or Last 16. Germany's World Cup outright odds currently sit at 13.00
| Stage of elimination | Odds |
| Group stage | 15.00 |
| Round of 32 | 3.50 |
| Last 16 | 3.25 |
| Quarter-finals | 5.50 |
| Semi-finals | 6.00 |
| Runner-up | 10.00 |
| To win outright | 13.00 |
Germany's attack features several players capable of sharing the goals throughout the tournament, which makes the team top scorer market particularly interesting. Unlike some nations that rely heavily on one star striker, Julian Nagelsmann has multiple attacking options at his disposal.
Kai Havertz heads the betting to finish as Germany's leading scorer. The Arsenal forward is expected to start as Nagelsmann's preferred central attacker and should benefit from the creativity around him.
Nick Woltemade is one of the more interesting options. The Newcastle striker has enjoyed a rapid rise over the past year. Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala are not traditional goalscorers, but both should feature heavily in Germany's attacking output.
One of the more interesting long-shot markets involves Manuel Neuer to win the Golden Glove at odds of 17.00. The 40-year-old surprised many by coming out of international retirement for the tournament, but he has shown throughout this UEFA Champions League season that he remains capable of performing at the highest level.
Goalkeepers: Manuel Neuer (Bayern Munich), Oliver Baumann (Hoffenheim), Alexander Nübel (Stuttgart).
Defenders: Waldemar Anton (Borussia Dortmund), Nathaniel Brown (Eintracht Frankfurt), Joshua Kimmich (Bayern Munich), David Raum (RB Leipzig), Antonio Rüdiger (Real Madrid), Nico Schlotterbeck (Borussia Dortmund), Jonathan Tah (Bayern Munich), Malick Thiaw (Newcastle United).
Midfielders: Nadiem Amiri (Mainz), Leon Goretzka (Bayern Munich), Pascal Groß (Brighton & Hove Albion), Lennart Karl (Bayern Munich), Jamie Leweling (Stuttgart), Felix Nmecha (Borussia Dortmund), Aleksandar Pavlović (Bayern Munich), Leroy Sané (Galatasaray), Angelo Stiller (Stuttgart), Jamal Musiala (Bayern Munich), Florian Wirtz (Liverpool).
Forwards: Maximilian Beier (Borussia Dortmund), Kai Havertz (Arsenal), Deniz Undav (Stuttgart), Nick Woltemade (Newcastle United).
🚨🇩🇪 OFFICIAL: Germany release full World Cup squad by Julian Nagelsmann. pic.twitter.com/qAXJ8RpL93
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) May 21, 2026
Germany's squad reflects Nagelsmann's preference for a blend of experience and youth. Neuer returns to provide leadership, while Joshua Kimmich captains a side built around technical quality and versatility.
The creative burden will largely fall on Wirtz and Musiala, arguably one of the most exciting attacking duos in international football. Behind them, Jonathan Tah, Antonio Rüdiger, and Nico Schlotterbeck provide experience in defence.
Germany are expected to line up in a flexible system that can shift between a 4-2-3-1 and a 4-3-3 depending on the opponent.
Provisional Starting XI: Manuel Neuer; Joshua Kimmich, Jonathan Tah, Nico Schlotterbeck, David Raum; Aleksandar Pavlović, Leon Goretzka; Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala, Lennart Karl; Kai Havertz.
Ivory Coast have built their recent success on a solid defensive foundation and are unlikely to make life easy for Germany. Germany should control possession for long periods, but chances could be limited if Ivory Coast remain organised at the back. That makes the under 2.5 goals market an appealing option.
The draw has opened up a realistic path for Germany to reach the last eight. Nagelsmann's side should be strong favourites to advance from Group E and would likely avoid several of the tournament favourites in the opening knockout rounds. With the quality of players, reaching the quarter-finals looks well within their capabilities.
Germany do not have an undisputed number nine, but Kai Havertz appears the most likely candidate to lead the team's scoring charts. The Arsenal forward is expected to start as the central attacker and will benefit from the creativity of Wirtz, Musiala, and Lennart Karl behind him.
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