2026 World Cup group stage predictions: New format & new rules
By Deniss Novickis | Published: June 1, 2026, 11:30

France are ready for their last major international tournament under Didier Deschamps. The two-time world champions, who played in the last two finals, are eager to make amends after losing on penalties to Argentina in the deciding match four years ago. With so much talent in the squad, Les Bleus have everything they need to shine at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Didier Deschamps’ side is second in the list of the top contenders, right behind the red-hot favourites, Spain. The odds on France winning the World Cup sit at 6.00. The French can reach the World Cup for the third time in a row, a unique achievement which was made only by West Germany and Brazil before. France to play in the deciding match can be had at 3.75.
| Team | Odds to win | Odds to reach the final |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 5.50 | 3.25 |
| 🇫🇷 France | 6.00 | 3.75 |
| 🏴 England | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 21.00 | 9.00 |
France are the clear favourites to finish first in group I, where they’ll face Norway, Senegal and Iraq.
Norway had an amazing qualifying campaign, winning all eight matches with a goal difference of +32. They have beaten Italy twice, and the Italians were left to participate in the play-offs, missing the third World Cup in a row as a result. Erling Haaland scored an amazing 16 goals, eight more than second-placed Harry Kane. The Scandinavians will play at the World Cup for the first time in 28 years, but they are a real threat nowadays.
Senegal played at the last two World Cups, reaching the Round of 16 four years ago. However, their best result remains the quarter-final in 1998, when they sensationally defeated France in the opening match. Led by Sadio Mané, they have many decent players with Ligue 1 experience, and will do all they can to spoil the French party once again.
Iraq are outsiders of the group, playing in just their second World Cup. They reached the final tournament by defeating Bolivia in the play-offs. Vastly experienced coach Graham Arnold is their biggest strength; however, it’s hard to see Iraq doing well this year, just as the odds suggest.
| ⚽ | To win group I | To qualify from group I |
| 🇫🇷 France | 1.40 | 1.04 |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | 3.75 | 1.20 |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal | 9.00 | 1.50 |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | 41.00 | 4.00 |
As much as we are impressed with the quality of the French national team, they have a very uncomfortable opponent in their first game. Many of the Senegalese players have huge Ligue 1 experience and know exactly what they're up against. You should never bet France at 1.44 to win this game, which looks like a potential slip-up, even though Les Bleus should take all three points here.
This encounter looks much easier on paper, and we just can’t see France losing points here. While nothing is guaranteed at the World Cup, the French should win comfortably. If they manage to go ahead early, this game could turn into a scoring fest. This game is ideal in terms of France World Cup betting, as them winning -2,5 goals can be had at 2.02.
The game in Foxborough will surely decide who takes the top spot in group I. Still, if you’re looking to bet on France in the World Cup, this match is not the best choice. The odds of France winning are as low as 1.70, and Norway are a very dangerous side nowadays. They are not a one-man army, but Haaland’s factor is a highly important one.
While there are numerous outright betting markets to consider, it is crucial to evaluate the knockout bracket and identify the most realistic route France could take to reach the final. Understanding their potential opponents and draw dynamics can provide valuable insight when assessing long-term betting opportunities. The table below lists the odds for each stage of the tournament where France could be knocked out. France’s World Cup outright odds to be eliminated after the group stage are as high as 13.00.
| Stage of elimination | Odds |
| Group stage | 13.00 |
| Round of 32 | 7.00 |
| Last 16 | 4.00 |
| Quarter-finals | 4.00 |
| Semi-finals | 6.00 |
| Runner-up | 7.00 |
| To win outright | 6.00 |
The most popular player-focused market is usually backing a team's top scorer for the tournament. However, bookmakers offer a wide variety of long-term betting options beyond goalscoring markets. By carefully analysing all available selections, we’ll try to uncover valuable opportunities that may be overlooked by the wider market.
Guess what - Kylian Mbappé is the favourite to finish the tournament as France’s best goalscorer. Four years ago in Qatar, he was the best sniper of the World Cup with eight goals, and we really doubt that he has lost his scoring ability. Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Désiré Doué all have great value if you believe that Mbappé will not shine in North America.
Mbappé is the favourite to win the Golden Boot for the second time running, as he sits at 7.00. His teammate Dembélé is eighth in the list of favourites at 21.00. Mike Maignan is among the favourites to claim the Golden Glove award - the AC Milan custodian and Ederson share fourth place in the list, at 7.00. Last but not least, Mbappé and Olise are among the top 5 contenders to win the Golden Ball - both can be had at 11.00.
Goalkeepers: Mike Maignan (AC Milan), Robin Risser (Lens), Brice Samba (Rennes).
Defenders: Lucas Digne (Aston Villa), Malo Gusto (Chelsea), Lucas Hernandez (Paris Saint-Germain), Theo Hernandez (Al Hilal), Ibrahima Konaté (Liverpool), Maxence Lacroix (Crystal Palace), Jules Koundé (Barcelona), William Saliba (Arsenal), Dayot Upamecano (Bayern Munich).
Midfielders: N'Golo Kanté (Fenerbahçe), Manu Koné (Roma), Adrien Rabiot (AC Milan), Aurélien Tchouaméni (Real Madrid), Warren Zaïre-Emery (Paris Saint-Germain).
Forwards: Maghnes Akliouche (Monaco), Bradley Barcola (Paris Saint-Germain), Rayan Cherki (Manchester City), Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain), Désiré Doué (Paris Saint-Germain), Michael Olise (Bayern Munich), Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid), Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace), Marcus Thuram (Inter Milan).
𝑪𝒉𝒂𝒄𝒖𝒏 𝒂 𝒖𝒏 𝒓𝒐̂𝒍𝒆 𝒂̀ 𝒋𝒐𝒖𝒆𝒓 🇫🇷🌎
Voici nos 26 Bleus qui représenteront la France à la 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐩𝐞 𝐝𝐮 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐞 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 ! 🔥#FiersdetreBleus pic.twitter.com/CqKUzJpSK0
— Equipe de France ⭐⭐ (@equipedefrance) May 14, 2026
France are expected to deploy a flexible 4-3-3 system that combines defensive solidity with explosive attacking talent. Aurélien Tchouaméni will anchor the midfield, allowing Adrien Rabiot and Warren Zaïre-Emery to support attacks and press aggressively. Out wide, Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé provide creativity, pace, and one-on-one quality, while Kylian Mbappé is likely to lead the line and drift into dangerous areas. Defensively, the partnership of William Saliba and Ibrahima Konaté offers physicality and composure, while Theo Hernandez's forward runs add another attacking dimension from left-back. France will look to dominate possession against weaker opponents but remain devastating on the counter-attack against elite teams.
Provisional Starting XI: Mike Maignan; Jules Koundé, Ibrahima Konaté, William Saliba, Theo Hernandez; Aurélien Tchouaméni, Adrien Rabiot, Warren Zaïre-Emery; Michael Olise, Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé.
Let’s start with France defeating Iraq by three goals or more in their second group stage match. Just as we said above, the attacking threat the French possess is just too big for the outsiders of group I. France should celebrate a big victory in this game.
The second betting market that caught our eye is France scoring over 11.5 goals in the tournament at 1.80. They should score six goals in the group stage, but it’s likely to be more than that. France will have an easy opponent in the Last 32, so at least two more goals will be celebrated at that stage. If you believe they will go deep in the tournament, over 11.5 goals will be registered even before the quarter-finals.
Finally, it’s hard to go against Mbappé in the Golden Boot race. He will be their target man once again, taking all penalties and free kicks as well. The Real Madrid striker did not have a great club season, but he’ll surely strive to prove himself on the biggest stage possible. The odds of 7.00 are too good to pass by, and your bet will win even if he shares the top spot with someone else.
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