F1 Hungarian Grand Prix 2026: Predictions and betting preview

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: 23 July, 2026, 13:15

The Belgian Grand Prix finally gave Kimi Antonelli and Mercedes the clean race weekend they had been waiting for. After several rounds disrupted by car issues and misfortune, the Italian converted pole position into victory at Spa-Francorchamps. It was his first win since the Monaco Grand Prix.

Formula 1 now heads to the Hungaroring, which will be the final race before the summer break. As always, we've got you covered with our full preview, featuring the latest analysis, predictions and the best betting picks for the weekend.

Budapest presents a completely different challenge to Spa-Francorchamps. Spa is a high-speed circuit with several iconic fast corners, where teams usually run low-to-medium downforce levels. The Hungaroring, however, features very few genuinely fast corners and instead places more emphasis on traction zones and heavy braking.

Because of this layout, teams are expected to bring significantly more downforce, using a setup similar to the one seen in Monaco. The circuit should also allow drivers to recover enough electrical energy over a qualifying lap, meaning we are unlikely to see them becoming energy-starved before reaching the finish line.

Red Bull

The Belgian Grand Prix was honestly a very encouraging weekend for Red Bull. On the medium tyres, Max Verstappen showed excellent race pace and, for much of the opening stint, looked like the clear second-fastest driver behind Kimi Antonelli. Isack Hadjar has also impressed. After starting from the back of the grid, he committed to a zero-stop strategy on the hard tyres and produced consistently strong pace throughout the race.

The Hungaroring will be a much tougher test for Red Bull. Unlike Spa, where engine power plays a major role, Budapest is all about aerodynamic grip and low-speed performance. The team is expected to reintroduce its inverted rear wing as they are confident that the airflow reattachment issue has been resolved. This gives Red Bull another opportunity to evaluate its updated package.

McLaren

Spa-Francorchamps had the potential to be a very good weekend for McLaren. Lando Norris showed outstanding pace during his stint on the hard tyres and looked capable of fighting near the front. However, the team kept him out for far too long, hoping another Virtual Safety Car would allow for a cheaper pit stop. That opportunity never came, leaving Norris to circulate on heavily worn tyres that ultimately cost him a much stronger result.

Oscar Piastri also looked competitive early in the race. After switching to fresh tyres, his pace was initially impressive, but in both of his stints his speed gradually faded for reasons that remain difficult to explain.

The Hungaroring has traditionally been a circuit where McLaren performs well, and that should give the team confidence heading into Budapest. Norris now has a fresh power unit, which removes any reliability concerns and could allow him to challenge for another podium finish.

Ferrari

The Belgian Grand Prix was a great result for Ferrari, although there was certainly an element of fortune involved. Charles Leclerc was a very lucky man on more than one occasion. First, he escaped what could easily have been a penalty after his collision with Oscar Piastri. Then, the timing of the VSC worked out perfectly, allowing him to jump ahead of Kimi Antonelli and take the lead.

Once out in front, however, Leclerc proved that it was much more than luck. He managed his pace brilliantly, keeping Antonelli behind.

Lewis Hamilton's race was more difficult after receiving a penalty for causing a collision with George Russell on the opening lap. Budapest, though, has always been one of his strongest circuits. Hamilton is by far the most successful driver in Hungarian Grand Prix history with an incredible eight victories. It is twice as many as the next-best driver, Michael Schumacher. If Ferrari once again has competitive pace, Hamilton should be firmly in the fight at the front.

Mercedes

It was another outstanding weekend for Mercedes and Kimi Antonelli, but a complete disaster for George Russell. Antonelli delivered another composed performance to claim the victory, while Russell's weekend ended in frustration after he was taken out on the opening lap.

For Russell, this result feels like a major blow to his world championship hopes. After several difficult weekends, he has sounded increasingly defeated in his post-race interviews, as the gap to Antonelli continues to grow. Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff has also been more critical than usual, suggesting that some of the problems Russell has experienced are down to the driver rather than the car.

Heading to Budapest, Antonelli once again looks like the man to beat. The Mercedes package has been consistently strong in recent races, and with the Italian finally putting reliability issues behind him, it is hard to see who can stop his momentum at the Hungaroring.

Qualifying and Pole Position

Kimi Antonelli is our pick to secure pole position for the Hungarian Grand Prix. The Mercedes driver has been the benchmark over a single lap in recent races. Antonelli looks perfectly positioned to continue his dominant run and claim another pole ahead of the summer break.

Podium Prediction

1st place: Kimi Antonelli

Antonelli looks almost unstoppable at the moment. Mercedes should suit the slow and technical Hungaroring.

2nd place: Lewis Hamilton

Hamilton's record of eight wins in Hungary cannot be ignored. Ferrari showed strong race pace in Belgium, and his experience around this circuit should put him in podium contention.

3rd place: Lando Norris

Norris had excellent pace at Spa despite McLaren's strategy mistake. With a fresh power unit and a strong historical record for the team in Budapest, he can return to the podium.

Dark Horses

Pierre Gasly is our dark horse pick for the Hungarian Grand Prix. The Alpine driver narrowly missed out on the points in Belgium after another competitive performance, having already secured a top-10 finish at the British Grand Prix.

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