2026 World Cup group stage predictions: New format & new rules
By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: June 8, 2026, 13:00

The defending champions enter the 2026 FIFA World Cup as one of the favourites to lift the trophy once again. Lionel Scaloni's side topped the CONMEBOL qualifiers by nine points and remain packed with world-class talent. With Lionel Messi expected to play in his final World Cup, the Albiceleste will be aiming to become the first nation since Brazil in 1962 to successfully defend the title.
The odds on Argentina winning the World Cup currently stand at 10.00, placing them among the leading contenders for the trophy. Bookmakers also give Lionel Scaloni's side a strong chance of reaching another final, with Argentina available at 5.50 to make the championship match.
| Team | Odds to win | Odds to reach the final |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 5.50 | 3.25 |
| 🇫🇷 France | 6.00 | 3.75 |
| 🏴 England | 7.50 | 4.33 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 10.00 | 5.50 |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 15.00 | 6.50 |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 21.00 | 9.00 |
The reigning champions are clear favourites to win Group J at 1.28. Much of the attention will be on Messi, who is expected to play in his sixth and likely final World Cup, but Argentina are no longer a one-man team. With Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez, Enzo Fernandez and Alexis Mac Allister all in their prime years, the Albiceleste have the depth and experience to comfortably finish top of the group.
Austria are the second favourites to win the group and should be Argentina's toughest opponent. Ralf Rangnick has built an organised side capable of troubling stronger nations. The Austrians will be confident of reaching the knockout rounds for the first time since 1982.
Algeria may be slightly overlooked in the betting markets. The Desert Foxes have plenty of experience at major tournaments and enough attacking quality to challenge Austria for second place.
Jordan are appearing at their first-ever World Cup and are clear outsiders in Group J. While they may struggle against more experienced opponents, they will be eager to make their mark on the biggest stage.
| ⚽ | To win group J | To qualify from group J |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 1.28 | 1.03 |
| 🇦🇹 Austria | 5.00 | 1.10 |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria | 8.00 | 1.22 |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan | 101.00 | 8.00 |
Argentina begin their title defence against Algeria in Kansas City. They will be keen to avoid a repeat of their slow start in Qatar, where they suffered a shock defeat to Saudi Arabia in the opening match. A strong performance here would immediately put the holders in control of the group.
The second group game could be Argentina's toughest test before the knockout stages. Austria have developed into a well-drilled side. A victory here would likely secure Argentina's place in the Round of 32. For those looking to bet on Argentina in the World Cup, both teams to score at odds of 1.95 could be an interesting option, as Austria have enough attacking quality to trouble the champions.
Argentina conclude their group-stage campaign against World Cup debutants. Depending on earlier results, Scaloni may have the luxury of rotating parts of his squad ahead of the knockout rounds, while Jordan will be hoping to end their historic first World Cup appearance on a positive note.
Argentina's World Cup outright odds reflect the belief that Scaloni's side can challenge for another title. A group-stage exit is considered highly unlikely. Reaching at least the quarter-finals or semi-finals appears the most realistic outcome.
| Stage of elimination | Odds |
| Group stage | 19.00 |
| Round of 32 | 3.00 |
| Last 16 | 4.33 |
| Quarter-finals | 5.00 |
| Semi-finals | 5.50 |
| Runner-up | 10.00 |
| To win outright | 10.00 |
Argentina possess one of the deepest attacking units at the World Cup, making their player prop markets particularly interesting. While the Golden Boot betting attracts plenty of attention, the Argentina team top scorer market could prove even more competitive.
Messi heads the betting to finish as Argentina's leading scorer. The captain is still trusted with penalties and most set pieces, giving him a strong chance of topping the charts. Julian Alvarez is arguably his biggest challenger.
The Atletico Madrid forward helped his club reach the Champions League semi-final, scoring 10 goals in 15 matches during the campaign. He has become one of the most sought-after strikers on the transfer market this summer.
Argentina are also well represented across the major individual World Cup awards markets. Emiliano Martinez is the favourite to win the Golden Glove at odds of 5.00 after playing a crucial role in Argentina's recent successes and establishing himself as one of the world's best tournament goalkeepers.
Messi remains prominent in the player awards betting despite approaching his 39th birthday. The Argentina captain is among the top five favourites to win the Golden Ball at odds of 11.00. He also sits third in the Golden Boot market at 13.00, behind only Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane.
Goalkeepers: Emiliano Martinez (Aston Villa), Geronimo Rulli (Marseille), Juan Musso (Atletico Madrid).
Defenders: Leonardo Balerdi (Marseille), Nicolas Tagliafico (Lyon), Gonzalo Montiel (River Plate), Lisandro Martinez (Manchester United), Cristian Romero (Tottenham Hotspur), Nicolas Otamendi (Benfica), Facundo Medina (Marseille), Nahuel Molina (Atletico Madrid).
Midfielders: Leandro Paredes (Boca Juniors), Rodrigo De Paul (Inter Miami), Valentin Barco (Strasbourg), Giovani Lo Celso (Real Betis), Exequiel Palacios (Bayer Leverkusen), Alexis Mac Allister (Liverpool), Enzo Fernandez (Chelsea), Nico Paz (Como), Thiago Almada (Atletico Madrid).
Forwards: Julian Alvarez (Atletico Madrid), Lionel Messi (Inter Miami), Nicolas Gonzalez (Juventus), Giuliano Simeone (Atletico Madrid), Lautaro Martinez (Inter Milan), Jose Manuel Lopez (Palmeiras).
Here they are. These are the guys. pic.twitter.com/xU2lcpJnpW
— Selección Argentina in English (@AFASeleccionEN) May 28, 2026
Many of the players who lifted the trophy in Qatar remain key figures under Scaloni, while younger talents such as Nico Paz, Giuliano Simeone and Thiago Almada provide fresh energy and depth.
Scaloni is expected to continue with his trusted 4-3-3 system, although Argentina often switch into a 4-4-2 shape without the ball. The midfield trio of Rodrigo De Paul, Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez provides balance between creativity and defensive work, while Messi is given the freedom to roam behind the attacking line.
Provisional Starting XI: Emiliano Martinez; Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martinez, Nicolas Tagliafico; Rodrigo De Paul, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez; Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez.
Austria are arguably the strongest opponent Argentina will face in the group stage and possess enough attacking quality to find the net. At the same time, the world champions have scored consistently, making both teams to score an appealing option.
While Messi remains the favourite in the market, Alvarez offers better value. The Atletico Madrid forward continues to improve with every season and arrives at the World Cup in excellent form. If Argentina make a deep run, Alvarez should have plenty of opportunities to lead the scoring charts.
Argentina have progressed to at least the quarter-finals in three of the last four World Cups and enter the tournament with a favourable group-stage draw. With their experience, tournament pedigree and depth across the squad, reaching the last eight looks like a realistic minimum expectation for the defending champions.
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