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Portsmouth vs Derby County prediction 16.03.2026 | Championship

Portsmouth

Portsmouth

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Derby County

Derby County

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  • Competition: Championship 
  • Date: Monday, 16th March, 2026
  • Kickoff: 20:00 UK / 21:00 CET
  • Venue: Fratton Park (Portsmouth)

On Monday evening, the last game of the 38th round will take place. One of the relegation candidates, Portsmouth, will welcome Derby County, which are trying to secure a playoff spot this season. The hosts are trying to end their three-game home losing streak, while the visitors are hoping to snap their three-game road losing streak.

Let's break down the game and find the best possible bet for this Championship tie.

Portsmouth vs Derby County Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Derby County

    1 : 1

    Portsmouth

    Championship

  2. Portsmouth

    2 : 2

    Derby County

    Championship

  3. Derby County

    4 : 0

    Portsmouth

    Championship

  4. Portsmouth

    2 : 2

    Derby County

    League One

  5. Derby County

    1 : 1

    Portsmouth

    League One

  6. Derby County

    1 : 1

    Portsmouth

    League One

In the first H2H game this season, we saw a 1:1 draw in a match where Derby County were a better team and probably deserved a win. Looking further back, in the past ten H2H games, Portsmouth won just once, while Derby secured three victories.

Regarding the number of goals, six of the past ten H2H games ended with three or more goals, while both teams scored in eight of them. 

Portsmouth

Portsmouth team overview

Portsmouth began their season intending to only survive. Despite having massive injury problems throughout the season, the popular Pompey put themselves in a very good position. However, after winning only one point in the previous four rounds, we can safely say they have complicated their lives tremendously and are under pressure to finally win a game. At the moment, they are in 19th spot with 40 points from 36 rounds - just two points away from the danger zone, although with fewer games played. 

After a 2:1 loss to Swansea, coach John Mousinho spoke to the media. He said they started the game poorly and were really bad in the first half. The coach was really disappointed with their performance and said they lacked aggression, but noted they improved in the second half and almost came back into the game

Last matches of Portsmouth

  1. Portsmouth

    1 : 2

    Swansea City

    Championship

  2. Blackburn Rovers

    1 : 1

    Portsmouth

    Championship

  3. Portsmouth

    0 : 1

    Hull City

    Championship

  4. Wrexham

    2 : 1

    Portsmouth

    Championship

  5. Millwall

    1 : 3

    Portsmouth

    Championship

Portsmouth lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Nicolas Schmid

Defenders

  • 24

    Terry Devlin

  • 55

    Madiodio Dia

  • 3

    Connor Ogilvie

  • 22

    Zak Swanson

Midfielders

  • 7

    Marlon Pack

  • 40

    Jacob Brown

  • 38

    Ebou Adams

Forwards

  • 47

    Gustavo Caballero

  • 9

    Colby Bishop

  • 27

    Millenic Alli

Derby County

Derby County team overview

Derby County had a bad season last year, almost being relegated from the Championship. This season, the Rams were projected to be around the middle of the table and have overachieved, putting them in a position to reach the playoffs. After 37 rounds, the Rams are in 8th place, six points away from the desired sixth place. Even though we believe they lack the quality to be in the top six, the Rams will have a pretty favorable schedule and definitely have a chance to reach the playoffs. 

After a 1:0 loss to Millwall, coach John Eustace spoke to the media. He was disappointed with the result but said there are a few positives about the performance. The coach added they did well in the second half, saying they created two or three big chances to change the result.

Last matches of Derby County

  1. Millwall

    1 : 0

    Derby County

    Championship

  2. Derby County

    2 : 1

    Sheffield Wednesday

    Championship

  3. Derby County

    3 : 1

    Blackburn Rovers

    Championship

  4. Hull City

    4 : 2

    Derby County

    Championship

  5. Watford

    2 : 0

    Derby County

    Championship

Derby County lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 31

    Josh Vickers

Defenders

  • 23

    Joe Ward

  • 28

    Dion Sanderson

  • 5

    Matt Clarke

  • 2

    Derry Murkin

Midfielders

  • 27

    Lewis Travis

  • 19

    Sammie Szmodics

  • 42

    Bobby Clark

Forwards

  • 25

    Ben Brereton Díaz

  • 7

    Patrick Agyemang

  • 10

    Rhian Brewster

Prediction

Portsmouth have won just once in their last four games and are struggling to secure positive results. To be fair, they aren't playing as poorly as the results suggest, but they keep making mistakes on defense, which eventually costs them points. Also, at home, Pompey have really struggled, winning just once in the past six games.

Derby County have been inconsistent lately, but still managed to win two of the past three games. Their only loss came against Millwall, one of the best teams in the league. However, they played well against Millwall and should have at least earned a point. 

Moreover, Portsmouth haven't won in the past seven H2H games, with their last win being more than a decade ago - in August 2015. Considering the trend in the previous H2H games and all the above, we believe Derby County will secure at least one point from this Championship tie.

3 Reasons why Derby County should win or draw

  1. Portsmouth have won one point in the past four games
  2. Derby County won two of the past three games
  3. Portsmouth haven't won in the past seven H2H games

Main prediction Portsmouth - Derby County

Derby County win or draw (X2)

Updated

clock
winrate

54% winrate

wins

3 wins in a row

Nikola has been betting for 10+ years and in the last couple of years he really improved his skills and made a lot of profit. He focuses mostly on football and basketball.

Portsmouth vs Derby County standings in Championship

Regular Season P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 Coventry City 46 28 11 7 97 - 45 +52 95
2 Ipswich Town 46 23 15 8 80 - 47 +33 84
3 Millwall 46 24 11 11 64 - 49 +15 83
4 Southampton 46 22 14 10 82 - 56 +26 80
5 Middlesbrough 46 22 14 10 72 - 47 +25 80
6 Hull City 46 21 10 15 70 - 66 +4 73
7 Wrexham 46 19 14 13 69 - 65 +4 71
8 Derby County 46 20 9 17 67 - 59 +8 69
9 Norwich City 46 19 8 19 63 - 56 +7 65
10 Birmingham City 46 17 13 16 57 - 56 +1 64
11 Swansea City 46 18 10 18 57 - 59 -2 64
12 Bristol City 46 17 11 18 59 - 59 0 62
13 Sheffield United 46 18 6 22 66 - 66 0 60
14 Preston North End 46 15 15 16 55 - 62 -7 60
15 Queens Park Rangers 46 16 10 20 61 - 73 -12 58
16 Watford 46 14 15 17 53 - 65 -12 57
17 Stoke City 46 15 10 21 51 - 56 -5 55
18 Portsmouth 46 14 13 19 49 - 64 -15 55
19 Charlton Athletic 46 13 14 19 44 - 58 -14 53
20 Blackburn Rovers 46 13 13 20 42 - 56 -14 52
21 West Bromwich Albion 46 13 14 19 48 - 58 -10 51
22 Oxford United 46 11 14 21 45 - 59 -14 47
23 Leicester City 46 12 16 18 58 - 68 -10 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday 46 2 12 32 29 - 89 -60 0

Portsmouth vs Derby County – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can find the match officially on the Arena Sport channel.

? How much is the average xG for Portsmouth this season?

The average xG for Portsmouth in the Championship this season is 1.39.

? How much is the average xG for Derby County this season?

The average xG for Derby County in the Championship this season is 1.20.