Chimaev vs Strickland: Odds and prediction for UFC 328 in Newark

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: May 2, 2026, 10:30

UFC 328 is shaping up to be one of the best cards of the year so far, headlined by a highly anticipated title fight between Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland. The reigning middleweight champion, Borz, will defend his belt against the American at Prudential Center.

The fight is scheduled to begin at 05:00 CEST on May 10. It's an early-morning bout worth waking up for. In this Chimaev vs Strickland prediction, we analyse both fighters' form, break down the latest betting odds, and share our expert take on the main event.

The bookmakers clearly expect Chimaev to keep his unbeaten run intact, with Strickland priced as a heavy underdog at 5.00.

Both fighters share similar physical attributes and an orthodox stance. Strickland is a few years older, bringing more experience into the cage, while he also holds a slight reach advantage over Chimaev. However, the difference is minimal and unlikely to play a decisive role on its own.

Chimaev comes into this fight undefeated, with nine wins already inside the UFC. He's beaten some of the best names in the middleweight division along the way, including former champions. His chain wrestling is on another level, and the pace he sets from the opening minute is something very few fighters can handle

There used to be doubts about his cardio over five rounds, but he answered those in his title win over Dricus du Plessis, where he controlled the fight for 22 of 25 minutes. That said, he's not untouchable. When he rushes forward, he can be hit. That's what we saw against Gilbert Burns, who even had him wobbled at one point. Chimaev later admitted he got drawn into a firefight that night, and since then, he's gone back to what works best for him: wrestling, control, and looking for the finish on the ground.

😳 Khamzat Chimaev went into 2-rounds hard sparring session with Brendan Allen and then switched to fresh Baisangur Susurkayev.

Khamzat dominated this sparring session.

🎥 @KChimaev pic.twitter.com/YlB8NBS4Zh

— Home of Fight (@Home_of_Fight) April 23, 2026

Chimaev's last fights

Strickland has spent the last couple of years right at the top, fighting for the title three times and building real experience in five-round fights. He's coming off a strong performance too, knocking out Anthony Hernandez. However, both of his recent losses came in title bouts against du Plessis, where he was outpointed over the distance.

He's proven he can hang with elite opponents, but his style is quite patient. Strickland prefers to sit behind his jab, manage distance, and slowly rack up points rather than forcing the action. His 76% takedown defence is solid, but this is a completely different kind of test. Against Chimaev, he will be very cautious, ready to react to the shots and look for counters while trying to keep the fight on the feet.

Coming to take his belt back 🏆@SStricklandMMA wants to make #UFC328 his best performance yet in the Octagon!

[ MAY 9 | LIVE on @ParamountPlus | 🎟️ https://t.co/sOeL51pSG7 ] pic.twitter.com/nHJPC4Hvyw

— UFC (@ufc) April 29, 2026

Strickland’s last fights

There's real bad blood behind this matchup. The tension has been building since their sparring sessions together, and now Chimaev and Strickland finally get to settle it over five rounds. Strickland has been making controversial comments, and both camps will be kept apart all the way until fight night, without the usual face-offs.

From a stylistic point of view, there's a strong chance this ends up looking similar to Chimaev's fight with Du Plessis, where control and wrestling will take most of the fight time. If that happens again, it's hard to see Strickland doing enough to turn the tide. That said, if he can read the entries, defend the takedowns, and keep the fight standing, this becomes far more competitive than the odds suggest.

For us, Chimaev is priced too heavily as a favourite. Strickland has the durability, experience, and style to make this uncomfortable. At these odds, the value lies with Tarzan. We're backing him to pull off the upset and stop Borz.

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