Southampton vs Middlesbrough Prediction 12.05.2026 | Championship

Southampton return to St Mary's Stadium as the Championship’s undisputed momentum leaders, after remarkably extending their unbeaten streak to 20 matches across all competitions following a disciplined, albeit at times heavily tested, defensive performance in the first-leg stalemate at Riverside Stadium.

The Saints have transformed their home ground into one of the division’s most intimidating venues throughout the 2025-26 campaign, thriving under a sophisticated possession-based system that has allowed them to control territory with authority and collect 14 victories during their ongoing historic run.

With a full house expected under the lights at St Mary’s and the atmosphere set to reach fever pitch, Southampton are fully aware that a sharper and more clinical display in the final third could prove decisive in booking their first Wembley appearance since 2023, while also keeping alive their relentless pursuit of an immediate return to the Premier League.

Encouragingly for the hosts, they have received a significant boost ahead of this winner-takes-all encounter, with influential midfielder Finn Azaz expected to return straight into the starting lineup, while the availability of Ross Stewart provides much-needed support to an attacking unit that struggled to create clear-cut openings at the Riverside.

Middlesbrough make the trip to the South Coast carrying a lingering sense of frustration after their dominant first-leg display at the Riverside, where they produced an astonishing 17 shots before half time, only to be denied by a stubborn defensive performance in a tense goalless stalemate.

Despite their wastefulness in front of goal during the opening playoff encounter, Boro head into the return leg encouraged by their reputation as one of the division’s most dangerous attacking sides, having plundered an impressive 82 goals throughout the regular Championship campaign to secure a deserved fifth-placed finish.

The visitors will also draw confidence from their recent dominance over Southampton, remaining unbeaten across their last five Championship meetings against Tuesday’s hosts (W3 D2), a sequence that includes a commanding 4-0 triumph back in January.

However, head coach Kim Hellberg is expected to be without influential midfielder Hayden Hackney once again, with the talented playmaker still struggling with an ongoing calf issue that has kept him sidelined in recent weeks.