UFC Freedom 250: Betting tips and predictions

By Deniss Novickis | Published: June 12, 2026, 10:00

A year ago, that would sound surreal, but here we are - a historical UFC event will take place on June 14 on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C. This event has many differences from the usual ones - it takes place on Sunday night, with no prelims and a $1 million cryptocurrency bonus, intended to reward the top performance on the card.

In this article, MightyTips provides UFC Freedom 250 betting predictions and tips ahead of the show in the United States. We’ll try to predict each fight, find the most valuable betting spots, and advise on which bouts to avoid completely to limit the potential damage to your bankroll.

The UFC Freedom 250 card is headlined by the fight between Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje for the lightweight championship. In the co-main event, Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane will fight for the interim heavyweight title. Other notable names on the card include Sean O’Malley, Derrick Lewis, Maurício Ruffy, Michael Chandler, Bo Nickal, and Diego Lopes. Here’s the full schedule for the event in Washington:

Fight card

• Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje
• Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane
• Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi
• Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis
• Maurício Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler
• Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus
• Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia

A can’t-miss moment in history.

🎨 Jonathan Bartlett

[ UFC Freedom 250 presented by @Cryptocom & @RamTrucks ] pic.twitter.com/jPMQnywCHg

— UFC (@ufc) June 9, 2026

Read our UFC betting tips, as we begin with the main event and break down every fight all the way to the first one, starting at 02:00 CET on June 15. A key factor in long-term betting success is selectivity. The most successful bettors don't bet on every fight; they wait for the opportunities that provide the clearest edge and the best value.

Main event: Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje prediction

As popular as Gaethje is, it is difficult to identify many realistic paths to victory in this matchup. While Topuria is not impossible to hit, he has repeatedly demonstrated an exceptional ability to absorb damage and remain composed under pressure. Against Charles Oliveira, he endured several clean strikes, including a devastating elbow that would have seriously hurt most fighters, yet showed little sign of being affected.

Gaethje has built his career on defying expectations and thriving as an underdog, but this challenge feels different. Topuria is younger, more defensively sound, and far more efficient with his offence. As the fight progresses, Topuria's accuracy and timing will become increasingly problematic for Gaethje, who has relied on toughness throughout his career. Our expectation is another impressive performance from Topuria, with the most likely outcome being a knockout victory in the first or second round. However, the odds on Topuria are way too low, and we just can’t bet Gaethje in this one.
Prediction: Topuria wins by KO/TKO. It’s a pass from our side.

Co-main event: Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane prediction

It is remarkable to think that Pereira once competed at 185 pounds and is now preparing to face elite heavyweights who naturally carry significantly more size. That physical difference could play an important role, particularly against a fighter like Gane. Unlike many of the opponents Pereira dominated at light heavyweight, Gane relies on movement, distance management, and technical striking rather than engaging in prolonged exchanges. The Frenchman constantly circles, uses feints and jabs effectively, and rarely allows himself to be drawn into unnecessary risks.

Durability is another major factor in Gane's favour. Throughout his career, he has shared the cage with some of the hardest hitters in the division, including Francis Ngannou, and has never been stopped by strikes. Of course, Pereira remains dangerous from the opening bell. A devastating left hook gives him the ability to change the outcome of a fight in a second. However, if Gane can navigate the early rounds, maintain his composure, and force Pereira into a longer fight, the matchup should gradually begin to tilt in his favour.
Prediction: Gane by decision, something like 49-46.

Featured fight: Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi prediction

Zahabi is on a 7-fight winning streak, being a very good striker. The problem for the 38-year-old Canadian is the fact that O’Malley is a better one. We have plenty of evidence on what Suga can do when he is not afraid to be taken down. Besides, his resume and previous opposition is hundred times better than anything Zahabi has faced before. With a huge reach advantage of four inches (10 cm), O’Malley will always have movement and speed to keep the fight at the required distance.

We believe that this fight will be the least spectacular out of all seven on the card, and the only question here is whether the American can knock Zahabi out. The latter is very durable, despite his age, and he was finished just once before, losing almost nine years ago to a crazy spinning elbow by Ricardo Ramos. Hence, we’ll go with a unanimous decision victory by the favourite, hoping that he won’t pick up an unlucky injury in the process.

Prediction: O’Malley gets his hand raised by a 30-27 decision.

Derrick Lewis to fans who want to see Josh Hokit get knocked out at UFC Freedom 250:

"I promise you guys, I will not let you down."

[ #UFCWhiteHouse | JUNE 14 | 8 PM ET on @paramountplus ] pic.twitter.com/Zo3koWrM6q

— UFC on Paramount+ (@UFConParamount) June 5, 2026

Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis prediction

If you follow our UFC predictions long enough, you already know the golden rule - never bet on Derrick Lewis and never bet against Derrick Lewis. The odds of Hokit winning the fight at 1.23 are simply outrageous, but let’s break this one down. Based on Hokit’s trash talk, you might think he is dumb, yet he definitely isn’t. Being an All-American wrestler, he has a clear path to victory, and he will surely have a speed advantage as well.

Lewis basically gave up in his last bout against Waldo Cortes-Acosta. The Black Beast is already 41 years of age, 13 years older than his opponent. Yet we can never underestimate the crazy power he brings to the octagon - a single punch will be enough to earn him a victory. In an ideal world, Hokit should take Lewis down immediately and find a finish, most likely by ground & pound. We just can’t imagine him trading blows here, as he did against Curtis Blades. The odds, though, make us pass this fight altogether. One last thing to note - the value here lies on Lewis by KO at 5.00.

Prediction: Hokit via TKO after taking Lewis down. We suggest passing this one.

Maurício Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler prediction

Analysing this fight, we’ll concentrate on Chandler. He is 40, he lost five out of his last six fights, and his sole victory came in 2022 against Tony Ferguson. El Cucuy was losing to everyone at that moment, yet he arguably took the first round against Chandler. The latter was very inactive recently, waiting for a dream fight against Conor McGregor, and he was destroyed by Paddy Pimblett a year ago. Now, let’s compare that to Ruffy, an elite kickboxer who is in his prime, 11 years younger than Chandler.

Obviously, having a wrestling background, Chandler has a good method of winning this one. However, he is a showman, and always reminded everybody of that. The emotions will surely take over him, especially in the White House surroundings, and that can lead to one thing only. Ruffy by knockout can be had at 1.40 only, but if the odds are too low for you, this might be a useful parlay piece.

Prediction: Ruffy via vicious knockout in the first half of the fight.

Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus prediction

While the hate of Nickal is immense, we must stay realistic and look at the facts. He is only 30, and he showed progress in his striking game last November, finding a head kick knockout against Rodolfo Vieira. The UFC would love to make Nickal their big star, even though part of his hype is gone. Still, it’s really hard to put your hard-earned cash on the guy who absolutely gave up in his penultimate bout versus Reinier De Ridder.

Daukaus had an awful start in the UFC, winning just two of the seven fights. He was not re-signed as a result, but managed to reignite his career in Cage Fury. He returned to the UFC on a 4-fight winning streak and was victorious in both of his bouts since, both by a first-round finish. Daukaus has very good wrestling defence, while also possessing power to knock Nickal out. There’s no way Nickal should be a 1.30 favourite here, and we believe it’s an ideal opportunity to bet on the underdog. The odds of 3.65 are just too good to pass by.

Prediction: Daukaus beats Nickal by KO/TKO to take the last parts of his hype.

Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia prediction

The historic card starts with a clash of the featherweight titans, as Lopes, who lost two title fights to the great Alexander Volkanovski, will try to stop the rise of Garcia. The latter won his last seven bouts, six of them by early knockouts, but just look at the opposition. Kyle Nelson, Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, Chase Hooper - those guys can’t be compared with Lopes, who has a titanium chin.

Don’t get us wrong, Garcia is a great fighter, and he should be a menace in this division for quite some time. It’s just that his style is ideal for Lopes, who loves to catch people pushing on him with powerful counters. A serious grappling advantage is another reason why we just have to bet Lopes to win here. Garcia is durable, so a decision victory by Lopes is what we predict the event will start with. His moneyline at 1.66 looks more than enough.
Prediction: Lopes wins a 29-28 decision.

We post free daily predictions and betting tips in our free Telegram channel. Join now and never miss the latest picks, insights, and opportunities to maximise your edge.