UFC 330 Makhachev vs Machado Garry: Betting tips and predictions

By Deniss Novickis | Published: August 14, 2026, 15:00

The upcoming UFC event in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, is far from ideal in terms of big names, and the number of unsold tickets speaks for itself. Still, we've got two title fights and some other interesting bouts to look forward to. Islam Makhachev is ready for his first welterweight championship defence against Ian Machado Garry. Likewise, Mackenzie Dern will try to retain her strawweight title, won last October, against Gillian Robertson.

In this article, we will provide UFC 330 betting predictions and tips ahead of the show at the Xfinity Mobile Arena. We'll try to forecast each fight, find the most valuable betting spots, and advise on which bouts to avoid to just enjoy the show.

The UFC 330 main card does not feature any other star names, but there are still decent fights to watch, most notably Edson Barboza versus Esteban Ribovics. The prelims should deliver, as Joel Álvarez, Charles Johnson, Vicente Luque and Myktybek Orolbai will all enter the octagon this Saturday.

Here’s the full schedule for the event in Philadelphia:

Main card

• Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry
• Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson
• Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes
• Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
• Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics

Preliminaries

• Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez
• Charles Johnson vs. Eduardo Henrique
• Donte Johnson vs. Eric McConico
• Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore

• Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando
• Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
• Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai

Read our UFC betting tips, as we begin with the main event and break down every single fight on the card all the way to the early prelims, starting at 23:00 CET. One key point to keep in mind: long-term betting success comes from discipline and selectivity. Instead of betting on every bout, it’s better to target only those with the strongest value.

Main event: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry prediction

Makhachev is among the finest wrestlers in MMA, but securing victory here could prove far more difficult than usual. On the feet, Machado Garry has significant advantages in height, reach and mobility, meaning Makhachev will need to close the distance effectively and execute his takedowns. Even if he succeeds, however, Machado Garry has the scrambling ability and technical skill to work back to his feet.

Makhachev's dominant victory over Della Maddalena was certainly impressive, although his opponent's subsequent loss to Carlos Prates has slightly diminished the result in hindsight. Machado Garry presents a considerably different and potentially more demanding stylistic challenge at welterweight. Looking at the odds, there's no way the Irishman should sit at 3.75. Pass might be the best choice, but we'll go with betting quarter of a unit on the underdog.

Prediction: Machado Garry outstrikes Makhachev to a 48-47 decision. And new!

Co-main event: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson prediction

We all love women's MMA (no), but at least this bout would be of a high level. It's a title fight, after all. Even if you don't enjoy female fights, Dern will keep you interested throughout, if you know what I mean. Jokes aside, we can't really see any keys to victory for Robertson. She is good; don't get us wrong, it's just that Dern is better in every aspect.

Robertson's biggest strength is her jiu-jitsu. However, it's very hard to see her submitting Dern. Her striking is very average, and while Dern is not a great striker either, she should get ahead of her counterpart. In fact, Robertson is very similar to Virna Jandiroba, who Dern defeated to win her championship belt. And, in our opinion, Jandiroba is a more dangerous fighter overall. All in all, it's Dern's fight to lose, and she will likely win by decision. We are passing this one.

Prediction: Dern wins a 49-46 decision. Pass is the choice.

Featured fight: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes prediction

This fight was on the prelims for quite some time, but the matchmakers moved it to the main card two days ahead of the event. Turner is the favourite at 1.62 after brutally knocking out Edson Barboza, but don't forget that he was about to quit MMA a year ago. Fernandes is on a 3-fight winning streak after losing his UFC debut to Mark Diakese via split decision.

Fernandes is a great striker who loves to work from outside, but Turner will have both height and reach advantage in this one. The Brazilian won't be able to win just by throwing vicious leg kicks, like he did in his last bout. Moreover, he has never met someone of Turner's class, and the latter has already seen it all, fighting against some of the best lightweights on the roster. We believe that Turner will finish Fernandes at some point; However, he has never been subbed or knocked out before, so Turner's moneyline is the play.

Prediction: Turner finds a knockout in the second round.

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus prediction

Such is the level of UFC in the Paramount era that we have this scrap on the main card of a numbered event. While the promotion's striving to push Abdul-Malik is understandable, the guy is not that good, although he will surely pass the Stoltzfus test this Saturday. Meanwhile, you should never bet his moneyline at 1.15, as he simply hasn't proved anything yet.

Not much to say about this one. Stoltzfus is a tough customer, but he is very slow, and speed will be the key here. Abdul-Malik is way faster, and the power in his hands tells us that there's only one outcome of this bout. A proper wrestler should create plenty of problems for Abdul-Malik, yet it won't happen this weekend. Stoltzfus already has two KO/TKO losses, and the third one is coming.

Prediction: Abdul-Malik finds a knockout in the first half of the fight.

Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics prediction

Ribovics needs a quick turnaround after being subbed by Mateusz Gamrot, and he's got an ideal opportunity for that. The Argentinian only has problems when there's a chance of a takedown by his opponent, while he will do just fine in striking exchanges. And, obviously, you can't expect any grappling from Barboza,

The Brazilian is 40 years old, and the overall damage taken finally gets control of him. He has lost three previous bouts, with the last two taking place in the lightweight division. Turner needed less than three minutes to finish Barboza, and Ribovics will do exactly the same thing. We don't know the financial situation for Barboza, who's still in good physical shape, but it's time to retire.

Prediction: An early knockout by Ribovics followed by Barboza leaving his gloves in the octagon.

Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez prediction

Njokuani was supposed to fight Geoff Neal, but the latter withdrew, and Álvarez jumped in on a 2-weeks notice. That shouldn't mislead you, though - the Spaniard does not fight often, and if he accepts this challenge, he is surely ready and in good shape. Álvarez was subbed by Yaroslav Yamosov just three months ago, breaking his 4-fight winning streak, and he is eager to get back to the winning column.

Being a submission artist himself with 17 such victories, Álvarez has a clear path to success here, as Njokuani was submitted four times previously. The level of striking is pretty equal here, and once Álvarez weathers the early storm, he should find a way to defeat his opponent. Álvarez by submission at 2.85 is a great risky option, but you can opt for him winning by KO/TKO or SUB at 1.74.

Prediction: Álvarez by some kind of choke, let's say it's a guillotine.

Charles Johnson vs. Eduardo Henrique prediction

Another bout with a late change, as Jose Ochoa pulled out and Eduardo Henrique stepped in on a 3-day notice. This fight will take place in a catchweight of 59 kilos (130 lb). The Brazilian Henrique did win a decision at Dana White's Contender Series last September, yet hasn't earned a contract. Now he is ready for his debut in the biggest promotion of them all.

While he's got some skills, Johnson is definitely of a higher level. What's even more important, the American has faced some of the toughest guys in his division. He's the only one to defeat the current champion, Joshua Van, and that victory came by way of knockout. You might hate his haircut, fair enough, but he is a great athlete. The crazy thing here is the odds, as both athletes can be had at even money. It seems that the bookmakers know something we don't, and you might consider passing this fight altogether. Betting Johnson to win at 1.83 in such circumstances is an easy choice for us, though.

Prediction: Johnson gets his hand raised by decision.

Donte Johnson vs. Eric McConico prediction

Johnson, undefeated and on a 2-fight winning streak in the UFC, is a big favourite against McConico. He has the power and the technique to knock McConico out, and let's not forget it - all four losses of the latter came exactly by this method. McConico's chin is very questionable, and you simply can't trust the guy.

Meanwhile, in his last fight in March, Johnson defeated the legendary Cody Brundage by a split decision only. This is a huge red flag, as Brundage simply does not belong in the UFC and should have been cut a long time ago. While Johnson winning by knockout at 2.10 is the most logical play here, neither athlete is reliable at all. We suggest passing this bout in terms of betting.

Prediction: Johnson finds a late KO/TKO.

Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore prediction

Another fight where the bookies can't see the favourite, while Luque, for some reason, opened up as a 2.50 underdog. While he is not that great a fighter anymore after being knocked out by Geoff Neal, the Brazilian is still dangerous. He lost two bouts against respectable opposition before submitting Kelvin Gastelum, which is not an easy thing to do.

Gore, on the other hand, is simply a bad fighter, as the 6-4 record suggests. He also impressed in his last fight, finding a finish against Azamat Bekoev. Gore is not worn out that much, but his low-level fight IQ might be the reason he loses to a seasoned veteran like Luque. If you hate betting on the old fighters, then we'd suggest skipping this bout. However, Luque beating Gore at 2.00 is too good for us to pass up.

Prediction: Luque will punish Gore for a silly mistake, submitting him in the second round.

Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando prediction

Not sure why this all-Brazilian affair is in the numbered UFC event, but we’ll get used to it at some point, I’m afraid. Fernando, the LFA champion in the light heavyweight division, will make his debut against Tobias, who lost his first fight in the UFC. The latter has some pop in his hands, but most of his 14 career wins came against very low level of opposition.

While we don’t have that much information about these athletes yet, Fernando will have a significant power advantage. He found two round 1 finishes in his previous fights against decent opponents. We believe he’ll extend this streak on Saturday, and Tobias was already knocked out before. Once again, pass might be the better play, but Fernando by KO/TKO at 2.15 is worth a shot.

Prediction: Fernando knocks Tobias out in the very first round.

Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj prediction

Brahimaj is a submission artist, as 12 of his 13 wins came by that method. However, if you analyse his career, he does not have a single victory against decent opposition. While he is six years younger than Magny, that might be his only real advantage. That's why we really question the fact that Brahimaj is a slight favourite here.

Magny holds the record for the most wins in the welterweight division. What's even more significant, he has faced some of the toughest fighters during his career and is a worthy gatekeeper for quite some time. Yes, time will get hold of him at some point, but we do doubt it will happen in Philadelphia. Betting Magny to win at plus money has value all over it, and most likely this will go to the judges' scorecards.

Prediction: Magny gets a 29-28 decision victory.

Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai prediction

Orolbai is the biggest favourite of the event in Pennsylvania, sitting at 1.10. Meanwhile, if you do get his method of victory right, the minimum odds will be 2.50, which is his KO/TKO. The Kyrgyzstan representative might look like a 40-year-old, but he can do it all, winning five of his six UFC bouts.

Wells is powerful, however, he is destined to lose this one by finish if he doesn't find a knockout in the first three to four minutes. His cardio is questionable, while Orolbai has energy for days and can find that vicious punch every second. Six victories by SUB tell us that he will be ready to win it that way too, if the striking won't go as planned. Do not put Orolbai in your parlays at 1.10, and if you do need a good acca piece, under 2.5 rounds at 1.58 looks very promising.

Prediction: Orolbai finishes Wells before the third round. Let's say he'll do it by submission.

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