Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry: Odds and prediction for UFC 330 in Philadelphia

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: July 1, 2026, 10:30

UFC 330 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, marks the first welterweight title defence of Islam Makhachev, who claimed the belt with a dominant victory over Jack Della Maddalena earlier this year. Standing across from him is Ian Machado Garry. The Irishman has been calling for this matchup for quite some time and believes he has the style to end Makhachev's reign.

The pair will headline the event on August 16 at 6:00 CET. In our Makhachev vs Ian Garry prediction, we break down the latest odds, compare both fighters' stats, and explain where we see the best betting value ahead of this intriguing championship clash.

The early betting odds make Makhachev a clear favourite at 1.27, while Machado Garry is available at 3.80 to pull off the upset. The gap is a little too wide in my opinion.

Machado Garry has several physical advantages. At just 28 years old, he is six years younger than Makhachev. He also stands 6 ft 3 in with a 74-inch reach, giving him a four-inch reach advantage and a significant height edge. Those attributes could make it difficult for Islam to close the distance. Garry is also a natural welterweight, unlike Makhachev.

Makhachev established himself as one of the toughest lightweights in the UFC. He defended the title four times before moving up to welterweight. His final lightweight appearance saw him submit Renato Moicano in just four minutes, although that result should be viewed in context. Moicano accepted the fight on short notice and was never expected to pose a serious threat to the champion.

Makhachev's move to welterweight could not have gone much better. He comfortably beat Jack Della Maddalena over five rounds to win the title. While it ended in a decision, the fight never really felt close. Della Maddalena looked worn out after the first couple of rounds and had very few answers for Makhachev's pressure.

The biggest question heading into UFC 330 is size. Makhachev is relatively short for the welterweight division and will need to work much harder to close the distance against the taller, longer Ian Machado Garry.

Ian Garry is HUGE compared to Islam Makhachev

How will this play into the fight?😳 pic.twitter.com/0KUXaaq4NE

— Blind Bear 🐻🕶️ (@BlindBearMedia) June 17, 2026

Makhachev's last fights

Machado Garry heads into UFC 330 after two incredibly tough fights. He earned a unanimous decision over former champion Belal Muhammad, defending every takedown attempt across three rounds. Before that, he edged out Carlos Prates in another close contest. That win has aged very well, as Prates went on to dismantle Della Maddalena just a few months later.

The only defeat of Garry's professional career came two years ago against Shavkat Rakhmonov. Garry accepted the fight on short notice while preparing for a different opponent and still pushed one of the UFC's most dangerous fighters to the limit.

At just 28 years old, Garry's best years are likely still ahead of him. He has excellent cardio, uses his height and reach well, and rarely wastes energy by forcing the action. While he is not known for one-punch knockout power, his 80% takedown defence in the UFC is one of his biggest strengths. If he comes in with the right game plan, he has the tools to make life very difficult for Makhachev.

🧠 Ian Garry, yüksek tekmelerini Carlos Prates'in kafasına değil kollarına hedefleyerek rakibinin nakavt gücünü emiyor. https://t.co/J2mKIPvVhG pic.twitter.com/7KFB1MiRCp

— Cage Pulse (@CagePulse_) June 30, 2026

Machado Garry's last fights

Makhachev is one of the best wrestlers in MMA, but his path to victory here is unlikely to be straightforward. On the feet, Machado holds clear advantages in height, reach and movement. That means Islam will have to figure out how to close the distance and get his takedowns. Even if he does, Garry will find a way to stand up.

Makhachev's dominant win over Della Maddalena was impressive, but Della Maddalena's recent defeat to Carlos Prates makes that result look slightly less convincing in hindsight. Garry represents a much tougher stylistic challenge in the welterweight division.

With the Irishman available at 3.80, the value lies with the challenger. Our pick is Ian Machado Garry to win.

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