FIVB Nations League 2026 predictions and betting odds

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: 28 July, 2026, 12:30

The 2026 FIVB Men's Volleyball Nations League is down to the final eight teams. From July 29 to August 2, Ningbo, China, will host the knockout stage, with Beilun Gymnasium serving as the venue for all eight matches. Every game is now win or go home, as the quarter-finals, semi-finals, bronze-medal match, and final will decide this year's winners.

Poland return as the defending champions and will be aiming to retain the title, but they face fierce competition from several nations that have put together a strong campaign all the way through the preliminary round. Below, you'll find the teams still in contention, a full breakdown of the quarter-final matchups, and our best betting picks for the final stage of the tournament.

Poland

The defending VNL champions remain one of the strongest contenders for the title. Nikola Grbić's team finished second in the preliminary standings with 10 wins from 12 matches, losing to Slovenia and Japan only. The Poles have been one of the most consistent teams throughout the tournament and boast a squad full of experienced players who know how to perform under pressure.

Italy

Italy finished fourth in the standings after winning 8 of their 12 matches. The reigning world champions have combined experienced leaders with one of the deepest squads in the tournament. It allowed them to stay competitive despite regular rotation during the preliminary stage. Their quarter-final against the United States is one of the toughest matchups of the final eight, but Italy certainly have the quality to go all the way.

USA

The United States flew slightly under the radar during the preliminary phase but still secured fifth place with eight wins. Their depth and ability to perform in high-pressure matches make them a dangerous opponent for any team left in the tournament. A quarter-final victory over Italy would instantly put the Americans in the conversation as serious title challengers.

Japan

Japan have been the team to beat in this year's Volleyball Nations League. They completed the preliminary round with a perfect 12-0 record, becoming the first team to finish unbeaten since Brazil in 2021. Laurent Tillie's side also dropped just 15 sets across those 12 matches, showing consistency on both offence and defence. After falling short in previous editions, Japan now look ready to compete for their first VNL title.

Slovenia

Slovenia have enjoyed another excellent Nations League campaign, finishing third in the preliminary standings with a 10-2 record. They looked comfortable against most opponents and delivered when needed. A quarter-final meeting with Turkey gives Slovenia a great chance to reach the last four, where they could set up a blockbuster clash with Japan.

Slovenia (1.33) - Turkey (3.25)

Slovenia come into the quarter-finals as the favourites, but Turkey have already exceeded expectations by reaching the Finals and will play without much pressure. Slovenia have the edge in experience and overall quality, while Turkey's best chance will be to turn the match into a long battle and capitalise on any nerves from their opponents.

Japan (1.05) - China (8.50)

Japan couldn't have asked for a better draw to begin the knockout stage. China qualified automatically as hosts and now face arguably the strongest team left in the tournament. Unless Japan produce an unusually poor performance, this should be one of the most one-sided quarter-finals.

Italy (1.66) - USA (2.10)

This is comfortably the standout quarter-final of the tournament. Both teams have enough quality to challenge for the title, making it the hardest match to call. Italy's attacking depth gives them a slight advantage, but the Americans have the experience to push this into a deciding fifth set. These two sides met just a month ago and combined for 195 points, so we expect another closely contested battle with plenty of long rallies.

Poland (1.20) - Ukraine (4.33)

Ukraine have been one of the surprise teams of this year's competition, but they now face the defending champions. Poland know how to handle the pressure of knockout volleyball and should have enough firepower to control the match from start to finish. Anything other than a Polish victory would be one of the biggest upsets of the tournament.

Before the tournament got underway, Poland and Italy were the two favourites to lift the trophy. That wasn't a surprise, considering they met in last year's VNL final and have been among the world's strongest teams for several seasons.

The preliminary round, however, gave us another favourite. Japan have been outstanding from start to finish, while Slovenia have also shown they have what it takes to compete with the very best. Still, we're sticking with Poland. The defending champions have the experience and winning mentality for knockout volleyball.

The 2026 FIVB Men's Volleyball Nations League began with an 18-team preliminary phase played across three competition weeks in June and July. Each team played 12 matches, with the standings determining which nations advanced to the Finals. The top eight teams qualified for the knockout stage, although hosts China were guaranteed a place regardless of their final position.  

The Finals are held in Ningbo, China, from 29 July to 2 August and feature a straight knockout format. Teams are seeded based on their preliminary-round finish, with first facing eighth, second meeting seventh, third taking on sixth, and fourth playing fifth. 

2026 FIVB Men's Volleyball Nations League Finals schedule (CET)

Quarter-finals

• Slovenia vs Turkey – 29 July, 09:00
• Japan vs China – 29 July, 13:30
• Italy vs United States – 30 July, 09:00
• Poland vs Ukraine – 30 July, 13:30

Semi-finals

• Semi-final 1 – 1 August, 09:00
• Semi-final 2 – 1 August, 13:30

Third-place match

• Semi-final losers – 2 August, 09:00

Final

• Semi-final winners – 2 August, 13:30

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