2026 World Cup group stage predictions: New format & new rules
By Deniss Novickis | Published: June 26, 2026, 10:15
Norway and France will contest the top spot of Group I, while Uruguay and Belgium are at risk of missing the play-offs. MightyTips is back with its World Cup value bet of the day, risky parlay of the day, match predictions for every game on the schedule, and some tournament trivia. One important rule for World Cup betting at this stage of the competition is to avoid automatically backing every favourite. With some teams already qualified, eliminated, or needing only a specific result, motivation levels can vary significantly and often play a crucial role in determining outcomes.

Match 61: Norway - France, 21:00 CET, June 26
Match 62: Senegal - Iraq, 21:00 CET, June 26
Match 65: Cape Verde - Saudi Arabia, 02:00 CET, June 27
Match 66: Uruguay - Spain, 02:00 CET, June 27
Match 63: Egypt - Iran, 05:00 CET, June 27
Match 64: New Zealand - Belgium, 05:00 CET, June 27
Kylian Mbappé is currently second in the Golden Boot race with four goals, sitting at 3.00 to win this award behind Lionel Messi. As expected, he’s at the center of all French attacks, and he’ll surely have chances to score against Norway. While the latter did win their first two games, there were plenty of defensive errors, as the three allowed goals suggest. France will surely take advantage of these mistakes, and Mbappé to score at 1.95 looks very promising.
Norway and France meet in the standout match of the final round. Both teams have won their first two games and are already assured of progressing to the Round of 32. However, first place remains up for grabs, giving both sides plenty of motivation. France have beaten Senegal (3-1) and Iraq (3-0), while Norway defeated Iraq (4-1) and Senegal (3-2). The main battle is between Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé, who have both been among the standout performers in the group stage. Expect strong lineups despite qualification being secured, as topping the group could result in a more favourable knockout draw. Norway’s defender Julian Ryerson is doubtful with a thigh injury.
Unlike the group’s other fixture, this is a survival battle. Senegal and Iraq have lost both of their matches and sit on zero points, but the expanded 48-team format means a third-place finish could still be enough to qualify. The Lions of Teranga will approach this game knowing that only a victory gives them a chance of extending their tournament. Senegal will be without first-choice goalkeeper Edouard Mendy due to injury concerns, while Iraq have doubts surrounding striker Aymen Hussein. Senegal possess greater attacking talent through Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson and Ismaïla Sarr, but pressure may also weigh heavily on them in a match they simply have to win.
Cape Verde have been one of the surprise packages of Group H. After holding Spain to a goalless draw and drawing 2-2 with Uruguay, the tournament debutants enter the final matchday unbeaten and with a realistic chance of reaching the knockout stage. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, have collected just one point after drawing with Uruguay and suffering a heavy defeat to Spain. Neither team is eliminated, meaning motivation should be high on both sides. A Cape Verde victory would almost certainly secure progression, while Saudi Arabia need three points and help elsewhere. Experienced captain Ryan Mendes has played a key role for the Blue Sharks so far, while their defender Sidny Lopes Cabral is suspended.
Spain lead Group H with four points and know that avoiding defeat should be enough to secure first place. Uruguay sit on two points after consecutive draws and may need a victory to guarantee qualification. This creates an interesting tactical contrast: Spain can afford patience, while Uruguay are likely to play with greater urgency. Spain have looked the stronger side throughout the group stage, particularly in their convincing 4-0 victory over Saudi Arabia. Uruguay, however, remain unbeaten and have shown resilience in difficult situations. One squad issue to monitor is Pedri, who risks a knockout-stage suspension if he receives another yellow card. The stakes are high, and both teams still have plenty to play for.
Group G remains completely open heading into the final matchday. Egypt have four points, as they followed a draw with Belgium by beating New Zealand 3-1, while Iran earned two draws. Neither side has mathematically secured qualification yet, so motivation levels will be extremely high. Egypt will once again look to Mohamed Salah for inspiration, while Iran’s disciplined defensive organisation has already proven effective against stronger opposition. Expect a tense and tactical contest where a single goal could make all the difference.
Belgium have not won a match yet, drawing against both Egypt and Iran, which leaves them under unexpected pressure heading into the final group game. New Zealand have just one point but remain mathematically alive in the race for qualification thanks to the possibility of advancing as one of the best third-placed teams. Belgium should dominate possession and create more chances, but the All Whites have shown they are capable of competing at this level and have already earned a draw against Iran. With qualification still uncertain for both teams, motivation will not be an issue. Belgium may have more individual quality, but New Zealand are unlikely to make life easy for them. Defender Nathan Ngoy is suspended for the Red Devils.

Few players have had a greater impact on Senegalese football than Sadio Mané. The former African Footballer of the Year is Senegal’s all-time leading goalscorer with 55 goals since making his debut in 2012. Mané was instrumental in Senegal’s historic triumph at the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations, scoring the winning penalty in the final and helping his country secure its first major international trophy. Now, Senegal’s hopes of reaching the World Cup knockout stage may once again rest on their biggest star. The Lions of Teranga need a victory against Iraq and favourable results elsewhere to keep their tournament alive. With Senegal struggling for goals and consistency, Mané’s leadership, experience, and ability to deliver in high-pressure moments will be crucial.
It's Oranje as far as the eye can see in Kansas City... Netherlands always bring the party! 🧡🇳🇱🎉 pic.twitter.com/A0LKxZilb2
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) June 25, 2026
On June 26, 2006, Zinedine Zidane produced one of the greatest performances of his international career as France defeated Spain 3-1 in the Round of 16 at the World Cup in Germany. Zidane capped the victory with a brilliant late goal and helped send a talented Spanish side home. The win marked the beginning of France's run to the final and served as a reminder that the 34-year-old still had plenty left in the tank.
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