F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix 2026: Predictions and betting preview

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: 24 September, 2026, 10:40

The first-ever Spanish Grand Prix in Madrid is over, and thankfully so, because it was a bit of a disaster. Kimi Antonelli once again came out on top, securing his eighth win of the season and extending his lead in the Drivers' World Championship to 81 points. Lewis Hamilton's race ended early because of a brake failure, while George Russell struggled for pace and could only finish fifth.

Now, Formula 1 moves to Baku for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. Read our preview and predictions as we analyse the favourites, dark horses and our picks for the race.

This year's Azerbaijan Grand Prix takes place on Saturday instead of Sunday. The Baku circuit, unlike the Madring, is one where the drivers can actually overtake, although it is not the easiest circuit for passing despite its gigantic straights. After the long straights, the circuit features multiple tight 90-degree corners, followed by the infamous infield part, which includes the extremely narrow castle section.

Not only that, but the walls are extremely close around this track. That is why every year we see cars crashing at least during practice. Baku is very much a real limit circuit, where even a small mistake can end your session. The rear tyres take an absolute beating around here, and the cars will be running plenty of downforce for this one.

Red Bull

Red Bull looked very strong at the Madrid Ring. Liam Lawson looked good in qualifying all the way up until his final run in Q3, where things started to fall apart. In the Grand Prix, he could have had a solid race if he had not been stuck behind other cars for most of it due to the nature of the circuit.

Max Verstappen looked fantastic and scored another podium, showing that Red Bull have plenty of pace at the moment. Isack Hadjar might be back this weekend, and he will need to quickly match the speed of his teammate after sitting out the last few races.

McLaren

Lando Norris showed once again why he has been McLaren's driver of the season, as he dominated the early portion of the race. He took pole position and led from the start. However, he was unfortunate with the timing of the VSC, which ultimately cost him the race to Mercedes. Oscar Piastri failed to extract enough performance from the car, which is why he finished so far behind.

Heading to Baku, it will be interesting to see if McLaren switch back to the inverted rear wing that we saw them run at Monza. This may be a necessity for them, as McLaren are not always the fastest car in a straight line, and Baku's enormous straights will make speed particularly important.

Ferrari

Lewis Hamilton suffered his first DNF of the season after a brake failure, and it happened very early in the Grand Prix. Honestly, it was a surprise, but given what happened to Lance Stroll, he was at least not the only driver who seemed to be having technical difficulties. Ferrari told Hamilton to stay on track to avoid causing a VSC, as Charles Leclerc was running on the hard tyre. They knew an early VSC could essentially cost Leclerc the Grand Prix.

Heading to Baku, Leclerc has a history of crashing at this circuit, and he simply cannot afford to do that this weekend. With the walls so close and little room for error, Ferrari will need a clean weekend from both drivers.

Mercedes

Kimi Antonelli won another Grand Prix, with Mercedes stopping under the VSC, unlike McLaren, which allowed Kimi to get the jump on Lando Norris. Kimi did very, very well once again, but his teammate George Russell struggled a bit for pace. George simply did not look anywhere near as fast as Kimi throughout the weekend.

Baku could be another strong race for Mercedes, specifically for Kimi. He is in fantastic form at the moment, and the characteristics of the circuit could suit both him and the car.

Qualifying and Pole Position

Even though we expect Mercedes to win yet another race, we are backing Lando Norris and McLaren to take pole position. Norris is driving absolutely beautifully at the moment, and McLaren now have a much better understanding of the ERS system compared to earlier in the year. With that in mind, Norris is our pick to start from the front in Baku.

Podium Prediction

1st place: Kimi Antonelli

Antonelli is in fantastic form and should continue his winning run, taking another victory for Mercedes around the streets of Baku.

2nd place: Lando Norris

Norris should have a great fight with Kimi at the front, but we expect Antonelli to eventually come out on top.

3rd place: Max Verstappen

Verstappen looks like he is getting back on the right track with Red Bull and should secure another strong podium finish.

Dark Horses

Racing Bulls continue to be the strongest midfield team, in our opinion. They have shown very good pace in recent races, and Baku could be another circuit where they can make the most of their car. We expect both Racing Bulls drivers to have a strong weekend and come away from Baku with points.

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