NBA play-offs 2025/26: Odds and predictions

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: April 17, 2026, 11:00

The 2026 NBA play-offs are here, and the Oklahoma City Thunder are leading the race once again. They finished the regular season with the NBA's best record at 64-18. Still, there’s a bit of tension around their path, with San Antonio finishing only two games behind them in the West. Boston look like a major threat now that Jayson Tatum has returned from his achilles injury layoff. In the meantime, Detroit also deserve respect after locking up the No. 1 seed in the East.

The first play-off round starts on April 18, and Game 1 of the finals is scheduled for June 3. For basketball bettors, it’s time to compare the NBA odds to win outright. The article below breaks down the main contenders, the best value angles, and our early view on who should survive these play-offs.

The NBA play-offs offer a wide range of betting options beyond simply picking the outright winner: conference winners, finals MVP, and special futures such as first-time champions. Each of these markets provides a different angle on how the post-season might unfold, whether you're backing a dominant favourite or targeting value in a specific conference.

Odds to win outright

Oklahoma City are clear favourites to win it all, and the gap between them and the rest of the field is noticeable. San Antonio have moved into second place after a strong season and continue to attract plenty of attention. Boston sit just behind them as the most trusted option from the Eastern Conference.

What stands out from the odds is how much more confidence there is in the West. Even though teams like the Cavaliers, Pistons and Knicks have put together impressive regular seasons, they are still priced well behind the favourites. The Western Conference simply looks deeper and more battle-tested.

Winning conference

Conference betting is often a simpler way to approach the play-offs, if you are sure that one conference has a huge advantage over the other. In 2026, East is the underdog, while Boston, Cleveland and Detroit all look capable of making a deep run. In contrast, the West is a red-hot favourite. Most of the attention is focused on Oklahoma City and San Antonio.

To win the conference

The Eastern Conference market looks much more open, even with Boston leading at 2.50. The Celtics have the edge in experience, but Cleveland, Detroit and New York are all priced close enough. This is a bracket where multiple teams have a realistic path to the finals.

In the Western Conference, Oklahoma City are priced short, at 1.64. The Thunder's consistency makes them the team to beat. San Antonio and Denver are the main threats if things go wrong. Houston, meanwhile, are priced as outsiders, needing a near-perfect run to compete.

First-time winner

This market is quite limited, as most of the main contenders have already won an NBA title before. The remaining first-time winner candidates come from the lower tier, and the gap in quality compared to the top teams is significant. Because of that, bookies price this outcome as a long shot at 29.00, reflecting how unlikely a breakthrough run would be.

Finals MVP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the clear leader because OKC are favourites and he already won the award last year. Victor Wembanyama is next, as San Antonio's case depends heavily on him being the best player in the series. Nikola Jokić remains dangerous because Denver are still good enough to make a run even without being a top-two favourite.

Oklahoma City remain the clear market favourite to win the play-offs. This shapes our NBA play-offs 2026 predictions, but it doesn't mean the outcome is already decided. OKC have the best record, the best price, and the cleanest overall roster profile. Yet, San Antonio beat them four times in five regular-season meetings, and Denver are on a 12-game winning streak. Boston, meanwhile, may still be the strongest side in the East if Tatum's minutes hold up.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City enter the play-offs as the team to beat after a dominant regular season and back-to-back years as the No.1 seed. Mark Daigneault now has valuable championship experience, which gives the Thunder an edge in close, high-pressure situations. Their biggest strength is balance. Gilgeous-Alexander leads in clutch moments, but the supporting cast, including Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, makes this a complete roster.

There are still a few concerns. Managing expectations as defending champions is never easy. Additionally, the Western Conference path is extremely demanding, with San Antonio and Denver as potential opponents. There were also minor injury issues late in the season, though mostly precautionary. Overall, if fully healthy, Oklahoma remain the deserved favourites to win the title.

San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio are the biggest threat to Oklahoma in the West. They finished just behind the Thunder and, as we mentioned, dominated the regular-season head-to-head matchups. Wembanyama is the clear focal point. He's a player capable of taking over games on both ends of the court.

The Spurs' strengths lie in their athleticism, versatility and strong offensive output, especially in the second half of the season. However, the main concern is experience. This core has not yet been tested deep into the play-offs, and the intensity of a full post-season run could be a challenge. Still, with strong market support and clear matchup advantages against OKC, San Antonio have a very real chance to go all the way.

Boston Celtics

Boston are the most reliable contender from the Eastern Conference. Tatum's return from injury has transformed them back into a serious title threat. The team also continues to benefit from recent championship experience. Their roster depth and structured offensive play make them one of the most well-rounded teams in the East.

The Celtics are consistent. They know how to manage play-off series and rarely beat themselves. However, questions remain about whether they can match the top Western teams over a full finals series. Nevertheless, in a relatively open Eastern Conference, Boston look like the safest pick to reach the NBA finals.

Denver Nuggets

Denver, perhaps, are the most dangerous outsiders in the list. Nikola Jokić continues to anchor the league's best offensive system, and the Nuggets enter the play-offs in strong form after a long winning streak to close the regular season. Their experience and ability to control tempo make them a difficult opponent in any series.

The main concern is defence, which has been inconsistent throughout the season. Denver may also face a tough route through the Western Conference bracket, with multiple high-level matchups early on. Even so, with a player like Jokić, they remain a genuine title contender capable of beating anyone on their day.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland sit just below the top tier but should not be overlooked. They have a strong core led by Donovan Mitchell and a well-balanced roster capable of competing on both ends of the floor. Their path in the Eastern Conference is manageable, and they have enough quality to make a deep run.

However, the Cavaliers still have something to prove in the play-offs. This group has struggled to go beyond the second round in recent years, and that lack of breakthrough success raises doubts about their ceiling. They are a solid contender, but compared to teams like Boston or Oklahoma City, they may be missing that extra edge needed to win it all.

Our early pick is the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the 2026 NBA play-offs. The reasoning is simple: the best NBA championship odds still belong to the team with the best record, the deepest recent title experience, and the most reliable two-way profile in the field.

San Antonio may be the biggest danger because of the head-to-head success against OKC, and Boston remain the most logical Eastern finalist, but Oklahoma City still have the fewest obvious weaknesses. They know how to manage high-pressure possessions, they have the best player, and they do not need one single matchup script to win.

Denver are the value alternative, but if the question is who is most likely to be lifting the trophy in June, the Thunder remain the strongest answer.

If Oklahoma City go all the way, Gilgeous-Alexander is the most likely player to take home the Finals MVP award, as well. He remains the team's go-to option in clutch moments and already proved his value by winning both MVP and finals MVP last season. What stands out is his mindset. He’s calm and focused on the process. As he said: "It's cool. It's an opportunity. To have the opportunity to repeat means we've won before, so it's cool. So many things have to go our way." That approach reduces pressure and keeps him consistent. At 2.30, this looks like a strong value pick if you back the Thunder to win it all.

While the Western Conference offers little value due to Oklahoma City's clear dominance, the East presents a much more balanced market. That makes Boston to win the conference at 2.50 a strong option. Tatum is back and already contributing solid numbers, even if not at full peak yet. More importantly, this core has a real play-off pedigree, with multiple deep runs and finals experience. Compared to Detroit's relative inexperience, Boston look far more reliable over a full series grind.

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