2026 ATP Finals betting odds, player analysis & prediction

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: November 13, 2026, 13:40

The ATP Finals 2026 bring the season’s top eight available singles players to Turin’s Inalpi Arena from November 15 to November 22. Last year’s champion Jannik Sinner is absent with a knee injury, leaving the title up for grabs. 

Four players will make their tournament debuts: Flavio Cobolli, Arthur Fils, Frances Tiafoe and Rafael Jodar. The MightyTips team share their picks and break down the latest players’ form ahead of the season finale.

John McEnroe Group

• Alexander Zverev (1)
• Ben Shelton (3)
• Arthur Fils (6)
• Rafael Jodar (8)

Ivan Lendl Group

• Carlos Alcaraz (2)
• Daniil Medvedev (4)
• Flavio Cobolli (5)
• Frances Tiafoe (9)

Each group-stage win at the 2026 ATP Finals earns $405,000 and 200 ranking points. A semi-final victory adds $1,206,000 and 400 points, while winning the final brings another $2,412,000 and 500 points. Including the $338,000 participation fee for playing all three group matches, an unbeaten champion will take home $5,171,000 and 1,500 ranking points.

Carlos Alcaraz

A wrist injury took over four months out of Alcaraz's season, but he has managed to make up for lost time. The Australian Open champion has won five titles in 2026, including back-to-back trophies in Vienna and Paris. He beat Ben Shelton to claim his first Paris Masters title and heads to Turin with nine straight indoor wins.

The ATP Finals trophy is still missing from his collection. Alcaraz came close last year, losing to Sinner in the final, but he will not have to face the Italian this time. Sinner's injury leaves the door open, and with Alcaraz playing this well, this could be his year to finally lift the trophy.

Alexander Zverev

Alexander Zverev finally got his hands on a Grand Slam trophy in 2026, winning Roland Garros before adding the US Open title a few months later. After years of coming close, the German has taken a big step forward and arrives in Turin as world No. 1. He has also won the ATP Finals twice, in 2018 and 2021, so he knows what it takes.

Still, his recent results leave some doubts. Zverev lost in the semi-finals in Shanghai and Vienna, then fell at the first hurdle in Paris. He is the second favourite behind Alcaraz, but he will need to rediscover the tennis that brought him those two major titles.

Ben Shelton

Ben Shelton has shown this year that he can trouble the very best. The American won four titles, including the Canada Masters, and beat Alcaraz in a five-set thriller on his way to the US Open final. He also reached the final in Paris, where Alcaraz got his revenge in two tight sets.

His powerful left-handed serve should make him dangerous indoors, but getting past Zverev is another matter. Shelton has lost all six of their meetings, including this year's US Open final, and they share a group in Turin. Still, with his recent form, he has every reason to target a semi-final place and see how far he can go.

Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev lifted the ATP Finals trophy in 2020. He has collected four titles this season, and his 42 hard-court wins are the most of anyone in the field. He also beat Alcaraz in straight sets at Indian Wells, so sharing a group with the favourite should not scare him.

His recent results have been less convincing, though. Medvedev lost to Alcaraz in Vienna before an opening-match exit in Paris. There are potential problems elsewhere in his group, too: Cobolli won their latest meeting, while Tiafoe beat him at the US Open. His experience could prove valuable, but a semi-final place looks far from guaranteed.

Rafael Jodar

A year ago, Rafael Jodar was a student at the University of Virginia. Now he is preparing to face the world's best in Turin after qualifying for the ATP Finals in his first season on tour. The Spaniard won his first title in Marrakech, but reaching the Shanghai final, beating Medvedev 6-3, 6-4 along the way, showed just how far he has come.

Jodar is an outsider here, although his group offers some hope. He has beaten Fils twice this season and has yet to face Shelton. Zverev looks like the toughest challenge, having beaten him comfortably at Roland Garros. Even so, Jodar has already made a habit of exceeding expectations.

Arthur Fils

Winning his first Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati gave Fils a taste of success on the biggest stage. Now the Frenchman has another chance to test himself, becoming the first player from his country to qualify for the ATP Finals since Gael Monfils in 2016. With two titles and 30 hard-court victories this season, he has earned his place.

Getting out of the group will take some doing, though. Fils trails all three opponents in their head-to-head records, with Shelton winning both of their indoor meetings and Jodar beating him twice this summer. He will need to find his Cincinnati form quickly, but that run showed he can be a threat.

Frances Tiafoe

Which Frances Tiafoe will turn up in Turin? The American won Halle and reached the US Open semi-finals this season, but opening-match defeats at his last two tournaments have taken some of the excitement out of his ATP Finals debut.

The draw gives him a chance to get back on track. Tiafoe has won four of his five meetings with Cobolli and beaten Medvedev twice in their past three matches, including at this year’s US Open. Alcaraz is the toughest opponent in the group, although their last two encounters both went to five sets.

Flavio Cobolli

Cobolli will have the Turin crowd behind him, and he may need every bit of that support. The Italian reached his first Grand Slam final at Roland Garros and won the Acapulco title this season, earning his ATP Finals debut. However, his retirement in Vienna leaves a question over his fitness heading into the tournament.

His group does not offer much breathing room either. Cobolli has lost four of his five meetings with Tiafoe, while Alcaraz comfortably won their only previous encounter. Beating Medvedev in Madrid this year gives him something to build on, but indoor hard courts present a different challenge. Getting through the group would be another big achievement.

• Alcaraz arrives on a nine-match indoor winning streak after claiming consecutive titles in Vienna and Paris.
• Zverev has won all six meetings with group rival Shelton, including this year’s US Open final.
• Tiafoe has beaten Medvedev in two of their past three meetings and leads Cobolli 4-1, giving him reasons for optimism against both group rivals.

Alcaraz is our pick to win his first ATP Finals title. The Spaniard has found his rhythm at the right time, while Sinner’s absence removes the opponent who beat him in last year’s final. Zverev has the experience and two Grand Slam titles this season, but his recent form is less convincing. Over the full week, we expect Alcaraz to come out on top.

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