Della Maddalena vs Prates: Odds and prediction for the UFC Fight Night in Perth

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: April 30, 2026, 13:45

UFC Fight Night heads to Perth this weekend, with a stacked card set for RAC Arena. In the main event, the No.1-ranked Jack Della Maddalena takes on No.5 contender Carlos Prates in a welterweight clash. The fight will start on Saturday at 15:30 CET.

This is a fascinating matchup and a real test for Prates, who steps in against a former champion of the division on hostile territory. In this Della Maddalena vs Prates prediction, we analyse both fighters' recent form, break down the latest betting odds, and share our expert take on how this main event could unfold.

Even fighting on home soil, Della Maddalena is priced as a slight underdog against Prates, though the difference is very small. The odds also suggest this one is unlikely to go the distance. Knockout is seen as the most probable outcome rather than a decision or submission.

On paper, Prates is slightly older, but his biggest edge comes in physical attributes. He holds a significant reach advantage over the Australian, with a 5-inch difference that could play a key role in striking exchanges.

JDM has built a strong resume in the welterweight division, capturing the title after defeating Belal Muhammad. Although his reign was short-lived. In truth, he ran into bad timing, as Islam Makhachev moved up in weight and took the belt from him. That fight never quite clicked for the Aussie, who looked out of rhythm and spent long stretches absorbing punishment on the ground in what became his first UFC defeat.

Still, it's difficult to write him off based on that performance alone. Della Maddalena has beaten top-level opponents, gained valuable experience in five-round fights, and remains one of the most durable and technically sound fighters in the division. His cardio, pressure, and composure are proven assets, and returning to fight at home should only boost his chances. After nearly six months out, he would want to come in fully prepared and highly motivated to bounce back.

The real deal 🤝

Jack Della Maddalena is looking to bounce back in a big way at #UFCPerth!

[ MAY 2 | 7amET | LIVE on @ParamountPlus ] pic.twitter.com/6MyYXjfnIv

— UFC (@ufc) April 27, 2026

Della Maddalena's last fights

Carlos Prates arrived in the UFC in 2023 after earning his contract through Dana White's Contender Series and has made an immediate impact. Every one of his UFC wins has come by knockout, which says everything about his finishing ability. His only defeat in the promotion came in 2025 against Ian Machado Garry. This fight also marked the first time in his career that he went the full five rounds.

Prates is an aggressive striker who prefers to stand and trade, relying on his power and excellent range control to break opponents down. He moves well for his size, mixing in kicks and elbows while staying light on his feet. Despite smoking a pack of Marlboro a day, his cardio has held up well so far, but the Garry fight did expose a weakness. When opponents stay disciplined, use movement, and avoid reckless exchanges, Prates can struggle to impose his usual rhythm.

When Carlos Prates became the first fighter to KO Li Jingliang in MMA.

😳 JDM has never been knocked out. pic.twitter.com/ZwWV0PCf2j

— Full Mount MMA (@MMAFullMount) April 28, 2026

Prates' last fights

This looks like a razor-close fight early on. Prates is dangerous every time he lets his hands go, especially in the opening rounds. However, as the fight progresses, the pressure, pace, and discipline of Della Maddalena should begin to take over. His body work, volume, and ability to stay composed in longer fights could gradually wear Prates down.

Over five rounds, that difference in approach may be decisive. Della Maddalena is the more reliable fighter in championship conditions, and if he can push the tempo and avoid big counters early, he should take control in the later stages. Our prediction: Della Maddalena to win, likely through a late stoppage or a clear decision.

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