Ballon d'Or odds: who will win the Golden Ball in 2026?

The race for the 2026 Ballon d'Or is officially underway. After Ousmane Dembélé's triumph in 2025, all eyes now turn to Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappé, who are leading the new era of football. Yet this season's outcome won't be decided by club form alone. Keep in mind that the 2026 FIFA World Cup is on the horizon. The tournament will ultimately define the candidacy of every major contender.

At MightyTips, we break down the latest Ballon d'Or odds, reveal the list of top candidates, analyse the main favourites, and share our expert prediction for who's most likely to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or.

The table below highlights the current odds, featuring the main favourites and emerging challengers. Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappé lead the race, closely followed by Harry Kane, while several world-class stars such as Erling Haaland, Vinícius Júnior, and Pedri are still very much in the mix for the award.

Lamine Yamal

According to the latest odds, Lamine Yamal enters the 2026 Ballon d'Or race as the standout favourite. He finished second to Ousmane Dembélé in 2025 and became the youngest Ballon d'Or runner-up. Lamine is also the first footballer to win the Kopa Trophy for two consecutive years.

Barcelona's young star continues to deliver great performances, scoring 2 goals and making 4 assists in La Liga so far. Last season, Yamal registered 24 goals and 21 assists across all competitions and helped his team win the La Liga title and Copa del Rey.

Mounir Nasraoui states Lamine Yamal will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or 🏆👀 pic.twitter.com/LmMZNEUgne

— OneFootball (@OneFootball) September 23, 2025

Kylian Mbappé

The Real Madrid superstar is currently La Liga's top scorer, as he received the Player of the Month award in September. Beyond his finishing ability, he also stands out for creating chances and setting up goals for teammates. This season, he's already shown how complete his game has become under Xabi Alonso's system.

Real is pushing for Champions League success, and France is heavily backed to shine at the 2026 World Cup, so the stage is perfectly set for Mbappé to try and capture the Golden Ball.

🚨| BREAKING: Kylian Mbappé is the current FAVOURITE to WIN the 2026 Ballon d’Or. IF the season ended today, on October 6th, 2025, he would take home the ballon d’Or. pic.twitter.com/Fl0t1GaiWe

— TheScreenshotLad (@thescreenlad) October 6, 2025

Harry Kane

Harry Kane has started the season in incredible form, quickly appearing as one of the main challengers for the Ballon d'Or. The Bayern Munich striker opened the campaign by scoring in the Franz Beckenbauer Supercup victory and followed it up with a hat-trick against RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga opener. He also broke the record as the fastest player to reach 100 goals in Europe's top five leagues this century.

Kane is in his best physical condition, and with England already qualified for the World Cup, his candidacy for the Golden Ball looks very strong.

Harry Kane 2026 Ballon d’or we will be there pic.twitter.com/e6Dd0oPEEn

— KinG £ (@xKGx__) September 20, 2025

Ousmane Dembélé

The 2025 winner helped his team win the UEFA Super Cup, where he scored in the shoot-out and earned the Player of the Match award. Just weeks later, he suffered a hamstring tear while on international duty, leaving both PSG and France without their star man.

The injury came at the worst possible moment, stealing his early momentum and raising doubt over his chances of retaining the Golden Ball in 2026. Still, there's time for him to recover before the Champions League knockout stage and the World Cup.

Erling Haaland

The Manchester City striker opened the season with a brace against Wolves and broke Alan Shearer's Premier League record for most goals in the first 100 matches. He even became the fastest player to reach 50 goals in the Champions League.

Internationally, Haaland led Norway to crucial victories, including five goals against Moldova and a hat-trick versus Israel, which made him the fastest player to achieve 50 international goals. His scoring feats for Norway have been staggering, but the national team is not strong enough to compete for major honours. Haaland's Ballon d'Or hopes will largely depend on his success with Manchester City in domestic and European competitions.

Vinícius Jr.

Vini Jr. has made a determined start to the season, eager to finally break into the Ballon d'Or podium after falling short in previous years. Despite his brilliance on the pitch, many believe that past issues with discipline and temperament have prevented him from receiving the recognition his talent deserves.

The Real Madrid winger looks fresh, contributing key goals and assists, leading the club's attack alongside Mbappé. While winning the Golden Ball remains a challenge, Vinícius continues to prove he has the quality.

Pedri

Barcelona's midfielder emerged as a genuine dark-horse candidate for the 2025 Ballon d'Or. The Spaniard is currently leading La Liga in successful passes. At the start of the season, he maintained an impressive 91% accuracy. He was on full display in last season's Copa del Rey final, where he scored a stunning goal in the 3-2 win against Real Madrid.

The Golden Ball usually favours attackers, but Pedri's influence on the pitch is just as valuable. He dictates the offence, and the front line depends on his skilful ball progression. With that said, Pedri deserves the award just as much as the other contenders on the list.

Current odds show that the race for the trophy is very competitive, with all the top names on the list starting their seasons in impressive form and already making strong statements across the top leagues. As mentioned earlier, much will depend on the upcoming World Cup, where international success could prove decisive.

Our experts predict that Kylian Mbappé will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or at 4.00. The Real Madrid forward has started the season in unstoppable form, leading La Liga in goals. France are one of the top favourites to win the World Cup, giving Mbappé the perfect opportunity to finally receive the much-wanted award.

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