F1 Grand Prix Canada 2026: Predictions and betting preview

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: 21 May, 2026, 09:30

The Formula 1 season heads to Montreal for the Canadian Grand Prix, which takes place from May 22-24 at the legendary Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve. The 2026 edition will also be Canada's first-ever Sprint weekend.

So far, Mercedes continue to control the 2026 season. Kimi Antonelli has quickly grown from a talented rookie into the driver everyone is now chasing. The Italian arrives in Montreal after winning three Grands Prix in a row. At the same time, McLaren appear to have unlocked their updated package and are back fighting for podiums. Read below for everything you need to know about the Canadian GP and our predictions for the race weekend.

The Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve is one of the toughest and most unpredictable tracks in Formula 1. The layout is built around long straights, heavy braking zones and aggressive curbs, which means drivers are constantly attacking the car.

Teams usually run lower downforce setups here to maximise top speed on the straights, but that makes the car harder to control in the slower corners. The Hairpin at Turn 10 and the final chicane are the best overtaking spots, but they are also easy places to make mistakes under braking.

Then there is the famous Wall of Champions at the final corner. One tiny mistake on the corner exit can destroy a race weekend instantly. With the difficult 2026 cars and only one practice session because of the Sprint format, Montreal will be an even bigger challenge this year.

As we already mentioned, Canada will host its first-ever Sprint weekend in Formula 1, which completely changes how teams approach the event. Instead of several practice sessions across the weekend, drivers get only one hour of practice before Sprint Qualifying begins on Friday.

Finding the right balance around Montreal is not easy either. Teams need strong straight-line speed for the long back straight, but also stability over curbs and under heavy braking. If they miss the setup window early, they may struggle for the rest of the weekend because major setup changes are restricted once qualifying starts. The Sprint race on Saturday also gives teams 23 extra laps of tyre and strategy data before the Grand Prix.

Alpine

Alpine looked extremely competitive in Miami and were arguably the strongest midfield team across the weekend. Franco Colapinto delivered one of his best performances of the season and finished as the top midfield driver, while Pierre Gasly's race was ruined after contact with Liam Lawson.

The car looked strong under braking and very stable through slower corners, which should also suit Montreal's stop-start layout. If Alpine manage to hit the setup window again, they could easily fight for another double points finish.

Red Bull

Max Verstappen looked much more competitive in Miami and finally gave Red Bull something positive to build on after finishing fifth. More importantly, the latest upgrades seemed to improve the car's overall behaviour, especially in areas where Red Bull had been struggling earlier in the season.

One of their biggest problems was instability when changing direction. However, this circuit doesn't feature medium or high-speed corners. It is built more around heavy braking zones, traction and straight-line speed rather than long flowing sections, which could suit Red Bull much better.

Their power unit remains one of the strongest on the grid, especially on long straights, so if the upgraded chassis continues to improve, Verstappen could realistically fight much closer to the front again this weekend.

McLaren

Miami was a huge step forward for McLaren and showed once again how strong the team is when it comes to developing the car. Their updated package clearly worked, and both drivers looked much more comfortable throughout the weekend.

Lando Norris especially looked back to his best. He dominated the Sprint race in Miami and then went head-to-head with Kimi Antonelli during the Grand Prix itself. Montreal should be another strong circuit for them if the car keeps improving under braking and traction. Oscar Piastri has already beaten Norris earlier this season, and it will be fascinating to see if he can respond again after Norris took the spotlight in Miami.

Ferrari

Miami was a frustrating weekend for Ferrari. Charles Leclerc was running a solid race and looked on course for a strong finish until the final laps, when everything suddenly fell apart. He let Piastri overtake him, then made a mistake a few corners later and hit the wall.

The weekend also exposed some of Ferrari's bigger weaknesses with the SF-26. The car looked nervous on corner exits and struggled with lock-ups under braking at times. Ferrari also lost pace through the middle part of the race compared to Mercedes and McLaren.

The Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve is built around heavy braking zones and traction out of slow corners, exactly the areas where Ferrari have looked uncomfortable recently. If they cannot improve the car's balance, another frustrating weekend could be waiting for them.

Mercedes

Mercedes won yet another Grand Prix in Miami, but this was their toughest weekend of the season so far. Kimi Antonelli still managed to take the victory, although this time he really had to fight for it, with Norris putting him under pressure throughout the race.

George Russell, meanwhile, never really looked comfortable around Miami and was beaten much more easily than usual. Montreal, however, should suit him far better. Russell has traditionally been very strong at the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve.

Mercedes are also expected to bring more upgrades to Canada. They desperately need them to work because McLaren are starting to close the gap quickly. Miami already showed that Mercedes no longer have a completely comfortable advantage at the front.

Qualifying and Pole Position

George Russell looks like a strong pick for pole position in Montreal. The Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve has suited him very well in the past, and he was extremely quick here last season. Russell won the Canadian Grand Prix quite comfortably and also delivered the fastest qualifying lap of the weekend. With only one practice session during the Sprint weekend, Russell's experience around this circuit could become even more important when it comes to finding the limit quickly.

Podium Prediction

1st place: George Russell

This feels like the perfect weekend for him to bounce back after a difficult Miami race. Mercedes should still have the strongest overall package here, especially under braking, and Russell's experience could become a huge advantage.

2nd place: Kimi Antonelli

Antonelli is still the top-form driver of Formula 1 after winning three races in a row. He has looked incredibly comfortable with the 2026 cars so far, but Canada could be one of his toughest weekends yet against a teammate who traditionally performs very well at this circuit.

3rd place: Lando Norris

McLaren finally look capable of properly fighting Mercedes after their strong Miami upgrades. Norris was excellent throughout the Miami weekend and should again be a serious podium contender in Montreal.

Dark Horses

Pierre Gasly finishing inside the top six looks very realistic for the Canadian Grand Prix. Alpine currently look like the strongest midfield team on pure pace, and Montreal is exactly the type of circuit where their car can perform well. Their Mercedes power unit is becoming a huge advantage as Mercedes-powered teams continue improving across the grid.

Gasly was unlucky in Miami, but the pace was clearly there. If Alpine get the setup right again this weekend, Gasly has a genuine chance to fight with the top teams and finish comfortably inside the top six.

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