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Paris FC vs PSG prediction 17.05.2026 | Ligue 1

Paris FC

Paris FC

Kick off:

Date:

PSG

PSG

1

5.50

X

4.50

2

1.53

  • Competition: Ligue 1
  • Date: Sunday, 17th May, 2026
  • Kickoff: 20:00 UK / 21:00 CEST
  • Venue: Stade Jean Bouin (Paris)

With the 2:0 win over Lens in the previous game, PSG have mathematically secured another Ligue 1 title. In the last round of the season, the champions will face city rivals Paris FC at Stade Jean Bouin. While the champs arrive after an important win and before the Champions League Finals, Paris FC comes to the match after a 2:1 loss to Rennes.

Let's break down the game and find the best possible bet for this Ligue 1 tie.

Paris FC vs PSG Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. PSG

    0 : 1

    Paris FC

    Coupe de France

  2. PSG

    2 : 1

    Paris FC

    Ligue 1

  3. PSG

    2 : 1

    Paris FC

    Club Friendlies 1

  4. PSG

    1 : 1

    Paris FC

    Club Friendlies 1

Interestingly, Paris FC managed to eliminate PSG from the Coupe de France in mid-January, beating them 1:0. Meanwhile, PSG won the league match 2:1. Those two matches are also their only official h2h games in the 21st century. Besides those two games, they also met twice in friendly matches, with PSG winning once and the other ending in a draw.

Paris FC

Paris FC team overview

Paris FC had a historic year, securing promotion to Ligue 1 after a 46-year absence. This year, their only goal was to survive, and Les Bleus truly delivered. After 33 rounds, they sit in 11th place with 41 points - ten points away from the danger zone. To be fair, they had some problems throughout the season, but after a coaching change in late February, they started playing much better and eventually easily secured survival.

Center back Mamadou Mbow will serve his one-game suspension due to the accumulation of yellow cards. With him out, we expect Diego Coppola and Otávio to start at the back. Additionally, Willem Geubbels suffered an injury in the previous game and will most likely miss the match. Moreover, Julien Lopez, Pierre-Yves Hamel, and Sofiane Alakouch should remain sidelined with their injuries. 

Last matches of Paris FC

  1. Rennes

    2 : 1

    Paris FC

    Ligue 1

  2. Paris FC

    4 : 0

    Brest

    Ligue 1

  3. Paris FC

    0 : 1

    Lille

    Ligue 1

  4. Metz

    1 : 3

    Paris FC

    Ligue 1

  5. Paris FC

    4 : 1

    Monaco

    Ligue 1

Paris FC lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 35

    Kevin Trapp

Defenders

  • 14

    Hamari Traoré

  • 42

    Diego Coppola

  • 6

    Otávio

  • 19

    Nhoa Sangui

Midfielders

  • 17

    Adama Camara

  • 18

    Marshall Munetsi

  • 21

    Maxime Lopez

Forwards

  • 27

    Moses Simon

  • 36

    Ciro Immobile

  • 10

    Ilan Kebbal

PSG

PSG team overview

PSG had a magnificent season last year, winning the treble and their first Champions League title. This year, even though they did well, many football experts said they are not at last year's level. However, coach Enrique proved the doubters wrong, especially in the final part of the season. PSG won the Ligue 1 title and reached the Champions League Finals, where they will face Arsenal around two weeks after the Paris FC game. Now, in this game, they have nothing to gain, and we firmly believe they will rotate the squad and keep their best players on the bench to avoid injuries. 

Warren Zaire-Emery, Willian Pacho, Quentin Ndjantou, Nuno Mendes, Kang-In Lee, Achraf Hakimi, and Lucas Chevalier, who missed the previous game(s) with injuries, should remain sidelined for the last Ligue 1 game of the season.

Last matches of PSG

  1. RC Lens

    0 : 2

    PSG

    Ligue 1

  2. PSG

    1 : 0

    Brest

    Ligue 1

  3. Bayern Munich

    1 : 1

    PSG

    Champions League

  4. PSG

    2 : 2

    Lorient

    Ligue 1

  5. PSG

    5 : 4

    Bayern Munich

    Champions League

PSG lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 89

    Renato Marin

Defenders

  • 24

    Senny Mayulu

  • 5

    Dimitri Lucea

  • 4

    Lucas Beraldo

  • 21

    Lucas Hernández

Midfielders

  • 27

    Dro Fernández

  • 14

    Désiré Doué

  • 17

    Vitinha

Forwards

  • 9

    Gonçalo Ramos

  • 49

    Ibrahim Mbaye

  • 29

    Bradley Barcola

Prediction

PSG are a better team, no doubt about that. However, we believe they will field a completely rotated squad, and Paris FC could make this game much closer than the odds suggest. Also, Paris FC have been really good lately, losing only twice in the past 11 games. They also won four of the past five games, while scoring 13 goals - 2.6 per game!

PSG are playing well, and were great throughout the season. Yet, they have won only one game in the past five with more than one goal difference. Moreover, PSG lost the previous H2H game against Paris FC.

Considering all the above, we expect a close match, and we believe that Paris FC to cover the +1 AH spread is the safest option for this Ligue 1 tie.

4 Reasons why Paris FC should cover the +1 AH spread

  1. Paris FC lost just twice in the past 11 games
  2. Paris FC won four of the past five home games
  3. PSG should heavily rotate the squad
  4. Paris FC won the previous H2H game 1:0

Main prediction Paris FC - PSG

AH1 (+1)

Updated

clock
winrate

54% winrate

wins

3 wins in a row

Nikola has been betting for 10+ years and in the last couple of years he really improved his skills and made a lot of profit. He focuses mostly on football and basketball.

Best Odds:

Melbet

1.85

Bet here

Paris FC vs PSG standings in Ligue 1

Regular Season P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 Paris Saint Germain 33 24 4 5 73 - 27 +46 76
2 Lens 33 21 4 8 62 - 35 +27 67
3 LOSC Lille 33 18 7 8 52 - 35 +17 61
4 Olympique Lyonnais 33 18 6 9 53 - 36 +17 60
5 Rennes 33 17 8 8 58 - 47 +11 59
6 Olympique Marseille 33 17 5 11 60 - 44 +16 56
7 Monaco 33 16 6 11 56 - 49 +7 54
8 Strasbourg 33 14 8 11 53 - 43 +10 50
9 Lorient 33 11 12 10 48 - 49 -1 45
10 Toulouse 33 12 8 13 47 - 46 +1 44
11 Paris 33 10 11 12 45 - 49 -4 41
12 Brest 33 10 8 15 42 - 54 -12 38
13 Angers SCO 33 9 8 16 28 - 47 -19 35
14 Le Havre 33 6 14 13 30 - 44 -14 32
15 Auxerre 33 7 10 16 32 - 44 -12 31
16 Nice 33 7 10 16 37 - 60 -23 31
17 Nantes 33 5 8 20 29 - 52 -23 23
18 Metz 33 3 7 23 32 - 76 -44 16

Paris FC vs PSG – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can find the match officially on the Arena Sport channel.

? How much is the average xG for Paris FC this season?

The average xG for Paris FC in the Ligue 1 this season is 1.28.

? How much is the average xG for PSG this season?

The average xG for PSG in the Ligue 1 this season is 2.1.