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Belgium vs Italy prediction 15.11.2026 | Nations League

Belgium

Belgium

Kick off:

Date:

Italy

Italy

1

2.22

X

3.82

2

3.14

  • Competition: Nations League
  • Date: 15th November 2026
  • Kick-off: 19:45 UK / 20:45 CET
  • Venue: King Baudouin Stadium

Group A1 leaders Italy travel to Brussels this Sunday for a massive showdown against third-placed Belgium. With just a single point separating these two heavyweights, a home victory would dramatically flip the table on the final matchday. Let's dive into the stats to find the best betting angles.

Belgium vs Italy Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Italy

    0 : 2

    Belgium

    UEFA Nations League

  2. Belgium

    0 : 1

    Italy

    UEFA Nations League

  3. Italy

    2 : 2

    Belgium

    UEFA Nations League

  4. Belgium

    1 : 2

    Italy

    European Championship

  5. Belgium

    0 : 2

    Italy

    European Championship

  6. Belgium

    3 : 1

    Italy

    Friendly International

History favors the Azzurri. Italy holds a clear historical edge with 4 wins across their last 6 meetings, though the Red Devils pulled off a stunning 2-0 victory in Rome back in September. Goals per game during this spell stands at 2.5.

Belgium

Belgium team overview

Belgium enters this one on the back of a gritty 2-1 away victory over Türkiye on Thursday, keeping them third in Group A1 with nine points.

The Red Devils reached the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals before losing 2-1 to eventual champions Spain, and watching that late collapse still stings for me as an admirer of their fluid attacking football.

Shifting back to Nations League action, Mark van Bommel's men also beat Italy 2-0 and Türkiye 3-0, while losing 1-0 and 4-1 to France.

On home soil, they're tough to beat, winning five of their last seven competitive home fixtures across all competitions despite falling 1-0 to France in Brussels back in September.

Kevin De Bruyne drives the midfield with three goals and an assist in this Nations League campaign. A hip injury sidelines Romelu Lukaku, while Roméo Lavia remains absent from the matchday squad.

Last matches of Belgium

  1. Turkey

    1 : 2

    Belgium

    UEFA Nations League

  2. France

    4 : 1

    Belgium

    UEFA Nations League

  3. Belgium

    3 : 0

    Turkey

    UEFA Nations League

  4. Belgium

    0 : 1

    France

    UEFA Nations League

  5. Italy

    0 : 2

    Belgium

    UEFA Nations League

Belgium lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Senne Lammens

Defenders

  • 21

    Timothy Castagne

  • 4

    Brandon Mechele

  • 15

    Nathan Ngoy

  • 5

    Maxim De Cuyper

Midfielders

  • 23

    Nicolas Raskin

  • 8

    Youri Tielemans

  • 7

    Kevin De Bruyne

Forwards

  • 19

    Diego Moreira

  • 17

    Charles De Ketelaere

  • 11

    Jérémy Doku

Italy

Italy team overview

Italy enters this one on the back of a stunning 3-1 home victory over France on Thursday, lifting them top of Group A1 with 10 points.

The Azzurri missed out on the 2026 World Cup after falling to Bosnia and Herzegovina on penalties in March's play-off final, and watching them sit out a third straight finals still hurts as a longtime Serie A fan.

Shifting back to Nations League action, Roberto Mancini's men also beat Türkiye 4-1 and 3-1, drew 1-1 with France, and lost 2-0 to Belgium.

On the road, they currently boast a five match unbeaten run across all competitions, picking up four wins and a draw.

Twenty-one-year-old striker Pio Esposito leads the charge after bagging a brace against France on Thursday. Injuries and withdrawals sideline Gianluca Mancini and Nicolò Zaniolo.

Last matches of Italy

  1. Italy

    3 : 1

    France

    UEFA Nations League

  2. Italy

    3 : 1

    Turkey

    UEFA Nations League

  3. France

    1 : 1

    Italy

    UEFA Nations League

  4. Turkey

    1 : 4

    Italy

    UEFA Nations League

  5. Italy

    0 : 2

    Belgium

    UEFA Nations League

Italy lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Gianluigi Donnarumma

Defenders

  • 2

    Michael Kayode

  • 3

    Giorgio Scalvini

  • 6

    Alessandro Bastoni

  • 5

    Riccardo Calafiori

Midfielders

  • 16

    Davide Frattesi

  • 8

    Sandro Tonali

  • 18

    Nicolò Barella

Forwards

  • 19

    Nicolò Cambiaghi

  • 7

    Sebastiano Esposito

  • 9

    Pio Esposito

Prediction

Brussels will be electric. Both backlines look leaky right now, with Italy conceding in six straight matches while Belgium kept just two clean sheets across their last nine outings. I've always trusted Kevin De Bruyne to unlock stubborn defenses on home soil, especially with automatic qualification hanging in the balance after the 2-1 win over Turkey last time out. Back the Red Devils to edge a 2-1 victory.

Three reasons we expect both teams to score in this game

  1. Italy are without a clean sheet in their last six matches.
  2. Belgium finished only two of their last nine games without conceding.
  3. Five of the last eight meetings between Belgium and Italy produced over 2.5 goals.

Main prediction Belgium - Italy

Over 2.5 goals

Updated

clock
winrate

59% winrate

wins

4 wins in a row

Football betting expert with a background in data science and statistical modeling.

Best Odds:

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1.66

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Belgium vs Italy standings in UEFA Nations League

Group 1 P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 Italy 5 3 1 1 11 - 6 +5 10
2 France 5 3 1 1 8 - 5 +3 10
3 Belgium 5 3 0 2 8 - 6 +2 9
4 Türkiye 5 0 0 5 3 - 13 -10 0

Belgium vs Italy – FAQ

? Where can I watch this match?

You can watch the match live in the UK via pay-per-view on Amazon Prime Video.

? How many corners does Belgium average per game in the Nations League group stage?

Belgium averages 3.50 corners per match overall, though that rises to 5.0 per game at home.

? What about bookings for Italy in this competition?

Italy averages 2.25 yellow cards per match, collecting nine yellows and zero red cards across their first four group games