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Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao prediction 25.04.2026 | La Liga

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1

2.41

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3.72

2

3.00

  • Competition: La Liga
  • Date: Saturday, 25th April, 2026
  • Kickoff: 20:00 UK / 21:00 CEST
  • Venue: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid)

Before meeting Arsenal in the Champions League semi-finals, Atletico Madrid will face Athletic Bilbao in La Liga, which are trying to move up and secure a spot in Europe next season. Atletico Madrid comes into the match having lost 3:2 to Elche and the Copa Del Rey final earlier. Meanwhile, Athletic Bilbao comes to the game after a 1:0 win over Osasuna in La Liga.

Let's break down the game and find the best possible bet for this La Liga tie.

vs Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Athletic Bilbao

    1 : 0

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

  2. Athletic Bilbao

    0 : 1

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

  3. Atletico Madrid

    3 : 1

    Athletic Bilbao

    La Liga

  4. Athletic Bilbao

    3 : 0

    Atletico Madrid

    Copa Del Rey

  5. Atletico Madrid

    0 : 1

    Athletic Bilbao

    Copa Del Rey

  6. Athletic Bilbao

    2 : 0

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

In the first H2H game, Athletic Bilbao won 1:0 in the Basque, in a super-close game without too many chances. Looking further back, over the past ten H2H games, each team won five times.

When it comes to the number of goals, we mostly saw low-scoring affairs as they went under 2.5 goals in the past three games and in eight of the past ten. Meanwhile, both teams scored just once in the past ten H2H games.

Atletico Madrid team overview

Atletico Madrid have been excellent for most of the season. However, since mid-March, the Colchoneros have lost seven of the past eight games, including the Copa Del Rey Finals. Still, that one win they secured was a massive one (vs Barcelona), as it put them in the Champions League Semi-Finals. There, they will face an out-of-form Arsenal, and they have a real chance to make it to the finals. 

In La Liga, they sit in 4th place with 57 points from 32 rounds. They have an 8-point advantage over 5th-placed Real Betis and are not really in danger of dropping out of the top four. Still, they have to start winning points and gain some momentum because some of the losses were really bad, like the ones vs Sevilla or Elche. However, we have to mention that they are constantly rotating the squad since they played so many matches.

Thiago Almada received a red card in the previous game against Elche and will serve his suspension. Moreover, Jose Maria Gimenez, David Hancko, Ademola Lookman, Matteo Ruggeri, and Alexander Sorloth, who missed the previous game(s) with injuries, should remain sidelined. 

Last matches of

  1. Elche

    3 : 2

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

  2. Atletico Madrid

    3 : 4

    Real Sociedad

    Copa Del Rey

  3. Atletico Madrid

    1 : 2

    FC Barcelona

    Champions League

  4. Sevilla

    2 : 1

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

  5. FC Barcelona

    0 : 2

    Atletico Madrid

    Champions League

lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Juan Musso

Defenders

  • 4

    Javier Boñar

  • 18

    Marc Pubill

  • 15

    Clément Lenglet

  • 3

    Julio Díaz

Midfielders

  • 16

    Nahuel Molina

  • 5

    Johnny Cardoso

  • 4

    Rodrigo Mendoza

  • 21

    Obed Vargas

Forwards

  • 10

    Alex Baena

  • 7

    Antoine Grizmann

Athletic Bilbao team overview

Athletic Bilbao came into this season after one of their best in a very long time. However, they failed to build on that momentum as they disappointed in the Champions League and finished 29th out of 36 teams. Their La Liga campaign should have been better as well, and there is a question whether they will secure a place in Europe. After 32 rounds, the Lions are in 9th place with 41 points, three points behind 6th place and the European spots. 

Midfielder Mikel Jauregizar received a red card in the previous game and will serve his one-game suspension against Atletico Madrid. Meanwhile, Aymeric Laporte and Yuri Berchiche suffered injuries in the previous game and had to leave the field. While Laporte's injury will probably keep him out of the squad for some time, Berchiche is cleared to play against Atletico Madrid. Additionally, Maroan Sannadi and Benat Prados Diaz should remain sidelined with their injuries.

Last matches of

  1. Athletic Bilbao

    1 : 0

    Osasuna

    La Liga

  2. Athletic Bilbao

    1 : 2

    Villarreal

    La Liga

  3. Getafe

    2 : 0

    Athletic Bilbao

    La Liga

  4. Athletic Bilbao

    2 : 1

    Real Betis

    La Liga

  5. Girona

    3 : 0

    Athletic Bilbao

    La Liga

lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Unai Simón

Defenders

  • 2

    Andoni Gorosabel

  • 3

    Dani Vivian

  • 4

    Aitor Paredes

  • 17

    Yuri Berchiche

Midfielders

  • 16

    Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta

  • 7

    Álex Berenguer

  • 8

    Oihan Sancet

Forwards

  • 9

    Iñaki Williams

  • 11

    Gorka Guruzeta

  • 10

    Nico Williams

Prediction

Atletico Madrid are in atrocious form, having lost seven of the past eight games across competitions. While they haven't been great for this bet during that stretch, we highly doubt they will deliver a great offensive performance. There is a big question whether coach Simeone will play with their best squad since they will have the most important match of the season against Arsenal.

Athletic Bilbao have been terrible offensively this season, scoring 34 goals in 32 rounds - 1.06 per game. And on the road, they failed to score in back-to-back games against pretty mediocre teams, Getafe and Girona. Therefore, expecting a great offensive performance seems unreal.

Additionally, eight of the past ten H2H games ended with fewer than three goals (80%). Considering the trend in previous H2H games and all the above, an under 2.5 goals seems the best possible bet for this La Liga tie.

3 Reasons why we should see fewer than three goals

  1. Atletico Madrid have scored one goal in three of the past four home games
  2. Athletic Bilbao failed to score in back-to-back road games against Getafe and Girona
  3. Eight of the past ten H2H games ended with fewer than three goals

Main prediction -

Under 2.5 goals

Updated

clock
winrate

54% winrate

wins

3 wins in a row

Nikola has been betting for 10+ years and in the last couple of years he really improved his skills and made a lot of profit. He focuses mostly on football and basketball.

Best Odds:

22bet

1.98

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vs standings in La Liga

Regular Season P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 FC Barcelona 32 27 1 4 85 - 30 +55 82
2 Real Madrid 32 23 4 5 67 - 30 +37 73
3 Villarreal 32 19 5 8 57 - 37 +20 62
4 Atlético Madrid 32 17 6 9 53 - 35 +18 57
5 Real Betis 32 12 13 7 48 - 40 +8 49
6 Celta de Vigo 32 11 11 10 44 - 41 +3 44
7 Getafe 32 13 5 14 28 - 32 -4 44
8 Real Sociedad 32 11 9 12 49 - 49 0 42
9 Athletic Club 32 12 5 15 34 - 45 -11 41
10 Osasuna 32 10 9 13 37 - 39 -2 39
11 Rayo Vallecano 32 9 11 12 30 - 38 -8 38
12 Espanyol 32 10 8 14 37 - 49 -12 38
13 Girona 32 9 11 12 35 - 48 -13 38
14 Valencia 32 9 9 14 35 - 47 -12 36
15 Elche 32 8 11 13 42 - 49 -7 35
16 Mallorca 32 9 8 15 40 - 49 -9 35
17 Sevilla 32 9 7 16 39 - 53 -14 34
18 Deportivo Alavés 32 8 9 15 36 - 48 -12 33
19 Levante 32 8 8 16 37 - 50 -13 32
20 Real Oviedo 32 6 10 16 25 - 49 -24 28

Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can find the match officially on the Arena Sport channel.

? How much is the average xG for Atletico Madrid this season?

The average xG for Atletico Madrid in La Liga this season is 1.58.

? How much is the average xG for Athletic Bilbao this season?

The average xG for Athletic Bilbao in the La Liga this season is 1.58.