UFC 319 predictions and betting tips

The United Center in Chicago will host UFC 319, headlined by the middleweight championship fight between Dricus du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev. In this article, we'll provide UFC 319 betting predictions and tips for most bouts on the card, while looking for some value bets.

We won't preview the first fight, the final of The Ultimate Fighter 33. There's not enough information about the participants, so we suggest skipping this one for betting purposes. To be a successful UFC punter, you must avoid betting on every single fight. Just like it makes no sense to add a favourite at odds of 1.10 to every parlay, sometimes there's no value in betting a fighter to win at 1.30, even though he likely will be victorious.

The UFC 319 card has plenty to offer, starting with Dricus du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev fighting for the middleweight championship belt. Aaron Pico will make his UFC debut against undefeated Lerone Murphy, and fans are always happy to see Michael Page, Carlos Prates, and Kai Asakura. Here’s the full schedule of the event in Chicago:

Main card

• Dricus du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev
• Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico
• Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates
• Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page
• Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura

Prelims

• Baysangur Susurkaev vs. Eric Nolan
• Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk
• Jéssica Andrade vs. Lupita Godinez
• Chase Hooper vs. Alexander Hernandez
• Edson Barboza vs. Drakkar Klose
• Bryan Battle vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

Early prelims

• Karine Silva vs. Dione Barbosa
• Alibi Idiris vs. Joseph Morales

Read our UFC 319 betting tips, as we are trying to find the most profitable spots for you. We can't guarantee that each fight will end as we predict, but these short previews will surely give you a lot to think about.

Main event: Dricus du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev

All respect to the reigning champion, but we feel he hasn't yet faced someone with such devastating power. Two aspects make us slightly cautious about Chimaev's chances - his recent layoff and untested stamina. That said, we expect him to take du Plessis down and look for a finish early. The longer the bout lasts, the more advantage for du Plessis, as he could gradually wear Chimaev out. Nevertheless, our prediction is a Chimaev victory, with the fight ending in under 2.5 rounds at 2.40.

Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev by an early stoppage.

Co-main event: Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico prediction

It's time for the co-main event, where Aaron Pico will make his UFC debut against Lerone Murphy. Being a freestyle wrestler, Pico loves to press forward, but he makes so many mistakes. To add to it, his last fight was in February 2024. On the other hand, Murphy is still undefeated and on an eight-fight winning streak. Fans don't like him because of his boring style, but he keeps on winning. If Murphy can weather an early storm, he has everything required to beat Pico, and the plus money on that outcome is just too hard to pass by.

Prediction: Murphy winning a close decision.

Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates prediction

Carlos Prates had a 10-fight winning streak, all by knockouts, before losing a split decision to Ian Machado Garry this April. This time, he shouldn't have too many problems against Geoff Neal, who would need to cut the distance and make this fight dirty to have a real chance of winning. Prates has excellent footwork and should outbox Neal, finding the knockout blow at some point. The Brazilian winning at 1.40 is a solid parlay piece, but you can choose Prates by knockout at 2.10 to add some spice to it.

Prediction: Carlos Prates will win by knockout.

Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page prediction

Everyone knows how MVP is winning his fights. We believe this will be another classic performance by the Englishman, who is gonna outstrike Jared Cannonier for three straight rounds to win a decision at 2.00. Cannonier can win by holding Page on the ground or finding one of his dynamite punches, but how realistic is that? Page's movement and technique are just too much for the opponent here, although it's unlikely he will find a finish.

Prediction: Michael Page wins by decision.

Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura prediction

The 38-year-old Tim Elliott hasn’t been in the cage for over 1.5 years, and it’s very hard to see him winning this one. Kai Asakura is fresher and larger; he’ll have a reach advantage and will try to earn another title shot as soon as possible. A highlight finish is the recipe, and the Japanese fighter should stop any takedown attempts from Elliott to knock him out at 2.62.

Prediction: Asakura wins by KO, TKO or DQ.

Baysangur Susurkaev vs. Eric Nolan prediction

A remarkable story here, as Baysangur Susurkaev earned his UFC contract on Tuesday only via Dana White's Contender Series, winning by a front kick to the body KO in the first round. Four days later, Khamzat Chimaev's sparring partner will make his big league debut against Eric Nolan. The UFC signed the latter to introduce Susurkaev to the big crowd, and he'll be knocked out in the first round. This fight was made on Wednesday only, and there are no odds at the moment of writing this article. In any case, we suggest not betting on this fight and enjoying the show.

Prediction: Baysangur Susurkaev by first-round KO, but pass is the choice.

Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk

A seasoned submission maestro, Gerald Meerschaert has a clear path to victory against Michał Oleksiejczuk, who has lost six times by sub during his career. There are only two outcomes to this fight: either Oleksiejczuk, who recently joined the Fighting Nerds, will win by a KO, or Meerschaert will find a submission against an opponent with almost no ground game at all. One thing is sure, though - there's no way this fight will go the distance, but the odds on that are as low as 1.23.

Prediction: Oleksiejczuk by knockout, yet this is another pass for us.

Jéssica Andrade vs. Lupita Godinez prediction

Seeing Jéssica Andrade as an underdog was a bit surprising. Obviously, the best days of her career are gone, but 90% of her losses are against top-class opponents. A former champion of the strawweight division, she will be much better in the standup than Loopy Godinez. The Mexican will need her takedowns and must keep the fight on the mat, yet she's there to be hit and will lack power. Andrade might even find a knockout, but we are happy with the moneyline for the Brazilian to win at 2.25.

Prediction: Andrade will celebrate victory as an underdog.

Chase Hooper vs. Alexander Hernandez prediction

Chase Hooper is only 25, but he already has 11 fights under his belt. He is on a five-fight win streak with three submissions, while Alexander Hernandez has won the last two bouts. Hernandez's fight IQ is very low, and his loss to already retired Damon Jackson in 2024 doesn't age well. However, he should have a slight advantage on the feet and has a decent takedown defence. Betting Hooper to win at 1.30 has no value, and we struggle to find a decent bet here.

Prediction: Hooper should win by submission, but the best option here is a pass.

Edson Barboza vs. Drakkar Klose prediction

Another close fight is expected, as Edson Barboza — who will turn 40 in January — moves to the lightweight division. The Brazilian looks fantastic for his age, but he is up against it in the fight against Drakkar Klose. The American is no way near as technical and will struggle in the standup, yet he should be much bigger and has a clear key to victory via grappling. Klose by decision at 3.40 looks tempting, but we'd opt for his victory by any method at plus money.

Prediction: Klose will win via decision.

Bryan Battle vs. Nursulton Ruziboev prediction

Bryan Battle goes up a division, as he struggled to make weight last time out. He is up against Nursulton Ruziboev, who'll be significantly bigger in this fight. This is a very evenly-matched bout, and while Battle will push forward, Ruziboev can find the killing blow on the counter. Yet Batlle has never lost by KO in his career, and Ruziboev was last finished in 2016. We struggle to pick the winner in this one, but the fight to go the distance at 2.25 looks viable.

Prediction: This fight will go to a decision.

Karine Silva vs. Dione Barbosa prediction

These Brazilian ladies already met in 2019, when Dione Barbosa won by unanimous decision. However, the circumstances are different this time. Barbosa took this fight on short notice, replacing JJ Aldrich, and didn't have a training camp at all. Silva has made massive progress since their last encounter; she's the stronger grappler here and should take Barbosa down at will. Silva winning at 1.44 looks like a good parlay piece, but to add some value, you might want to take her victory by decision at 1.80.

Prediction: Karine Silva by decision.