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Real Madrid vs Athletic Club prediction 23.05.2026 | La Liga

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

Kick off:

Date:

Athletic Bilbao

Athletic Bilbao

1

1.52

X

4.93

2

6.55

  • Competition: La Liga
  • Date: 23rd May 2026
  • Kick-off: 20:00 UK / 21:00 CEST
  • Venue: Santiago Bernabéu

There’s a bit less tension around this final-day clash than you might usually expect when Real Madrid host Athletic Club. Los Blancos have already lost the La Liga title, while the Lions still have a European spot to chase. That probably gives Athletic more urgency, although matches like this rarely stick to a clean script in reality. Los Blancos still won’t want a flat finish at the Bernabéu after a frustrating season.

Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Athletic Bilbao

    0 : 3

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  2. Real Madrid

    1 : 0

    Athletic Bilbao

    La Liga

  3. Athletic Bilbao

    2 : 1

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  4. Real Madrid

    2 : 0

    Athletic Bilbao

    La Liga

  5. Athletic Bilbao

    0 : 2

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  6. Real Madrid

    1 : 1

    Athletic Bilbao

    La Liga

Since 2021, Real Madrid and Athletic Club have met 14 times. Los Blancos won nine, including the last two meetings, while Athletic managed four victories. One finished level. Interestingly, these games are rarely chaotic or open either. The average sits at just 2.07 goals per match, which feels surprisingly low for sides with this much quality.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid team overview

Things have become a little uncomfortable around the Bernabéu lately. A season without silverware is already difficult to accept at Real Madrid, but the way it unfolded made it worse. First came the Champions League defeat to Bayern Munich.

Then Barcelona arrived and won 2-0, effectively shutting the door on any serious title ambitions. Madrid supporters can forgive many things. Falling short quietly is usually not one of them.

Even so, the response afterwards was decent enough. The wins against Real Oviedo and Sevilla restored a bit of pride. The Bernabéu continues to feel dependable too. Álvaro Arbeloa’s side have taken four victories from their last five home league matches there.

There is also some encouraging team news. Federico Valverde should return in midfield after recovering from the head injury he picked up following a training-ground collision with Aurélien Tchouaméni.

Dani Carvajal may start ahead of Trent Alexander-Arnold at right back, and honestly, that feels symbolic. Farewell appearances at clubs like Madrid rarely come without emotion.

Last matches of Real Madrid

  1. Sevilla

    0 : 1

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  2. Real Madrid

    2 : 0

    Real Oviedo

    La Liga

  3. FC Barcelona

    2 : 0

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  4. Espanyol

    0 : 2

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  5. Real Betis

    1 : 1

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

Real Madrid lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Thibaut Courtois

Defenders

  • 20

    Fran García

  • 24

    Dean Huijsen

  • 22

    Antonio Rüdiger

  • 2

    Dani Carvajal

Midfielders

  • 5

    Jude Bellingham

  • 14

    Aurélien Tchouaméni

  • 45

    Thiago Pitarch Pinar

  • 21

    Brahim Díaz

Forwards

  • 7

    Vinícius Júnior

  • 10

    Kylian Mbappé

Athletic Bilbao

Athletic Club team overview

For Athletic Club, this campaign has felt oddly flat after the optimism of last season. The Lions ended the previous year in fourth and seemed to have a clear direction under Ernesto Valverde. Somehow, though, things never really clicked.

Bilbao now sit 12th heading into the final round with only 45 points, which sounds worse when you remember where this squad was expected to be a few months ago. Even so, the table is tight enough that Europe is still not completely out of reach.

Form, however, has become a genuine issue. Valverde’s men are winless in three matches and managed just one goal during that run. Away games have been particularly rough. The Basque side lost five of their last six on the road, and confidence looks fragile at times.

There are injury concerns too. Nico Williams is sidelined again with a hamstring problem, while Beñat Prados remains unavailable with a knee injury.

Last matches of Athletic Bilbao

  1. Athletic Bilbao

    1 : 1

    Celta Vigo

    La Liga

  2. Espanyol

    2 : 0

    Athletic Bilbao

    La Liga

  3. Athletic Bilbao

    0 : 1

    Valencia

    La Liga

  4. Alaves

    2 : 4

    Athletic Bilbao

    La Liga

  5. Atletico Madrid

    3 : 2

    Athletic Bilbao

    La Liga

Athletic Bilbao lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Unai Simón

Defenders

  • 2

    Andoni Gorosabel

  • 5

    Yeray Álvarez

  • 14

    Aymeric Laporte

  • 17

    Yuri Berchiche

Midfielders

  • 16

    Íñigo Ruiz de Galarreta

  • 20

    Unai Gómez

  • 18

    Mikel Jauregizar

Forwards

  • 9

    Iñaki Williams

  • 11

    Gorka Guruzeta

  • 7

    Alejandro Berenguer Remiro

Prediction

Real Madrid look well placed to close the season with a controlled 2-0 win at the Bernabéu. Los Blancos have won four of their last five home league games, and the defence suddenly seems calmer, more disciplined with three clean sheets from the last four matches. Athletic Club arrive with serious away problems. The Lions lost five of their previous six road games, and goals have started to dry up at exactly the wrong time.

Three reasons we expect under 3.5 goals

  1. Bilbao failed to score in three of their last five away league games.
  2. Real Madrid kept a clean sheet in three of their last four matches.
  3. Seven of the last nine meetings between Real and Bilbao produced under 2.5 goals.

Main prediction Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao

Under 3.5 goals

Updated

clock
winrate

59% winrate

wins

2 wins in a row

Football betting expert with a background in data science and statistical modeling.

Best Odds:

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1.66

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Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao standings in La Liga

Regular Season P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 FC Barcelona 37 31 1 5 94 - 33 +61 94
2 Real Madrid 37 26 5 6 73 - 33 +40 83
3 Villarreal 37 21 6 10 67 - 45 +22 69
4 Atlético Madrid 37 21 6 10 61 - 39 +22 69
5 Real Betis 37 14 15 8 57 - 47 +10 57
6 Celta de Vigo 37 13 12 12 52 - 48 +4 51
7 Getafe 37 14 6 17 31 - 38 -7 48
8 Rayo Vallecano 37 11 14 12 39 - 43 -4 47
9 Valencia 37 12 10 15 43 - 54 -11 46
10 Real Sociedad 37 11 12 14 58 - 60 -2 45
11 Espanyol 37 12 9 16 42 - 54 -12 45
12 Athletic Club 37 13 6 18 41 - 54 -13 45
13 Deportivo Alavés 37 11 10 16 43 - 54 -11 43
14 Sevilla 37 12 7 18 46 - 59 -13 43
15 Osasuna 37 11 9 17 44 - 49 -5 42
16 Elche 37 10 12 15 48 - 56 -8 42
17 Levante 37 11 9 17 46 - 59 -13 42
18 Girona 37 9 13 15 38 - 54 -16 40
19 Mallorca 37 10 9 18 44 - 57 -13 39
20 Real Oviedo 37 6 11 20 26 - 57 -31 29

Real Madrid vs Athletic Club – FAQ

? Where can you actually watch this one?

Camel1 Live is free, and honestly, a decent option for Saturday’s La Liga game.

? How many corners do Bari usually win on the road this season?

Around 6.72 per La Liga home match, which feels huge. 

? What about bookings for Ernesto Valverde’s side on the road?

About 2.36 yellow cards on average in their La Liga away games.