Home Bookmakers Tips Bonuses

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid prediction 05.05.2026 | Champions League

Arsenal

Arsenal

Kick off:

Date:

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

1

1.69

X

4.04

2

5.64

  • Competition: Champions League, Semi-Finals, 2nd Leg
  • Date: Tuesday, 5th May, 2026
  • Kickoff: 20:00 UK / 21:00 CEST
  • Venue: Emirates Stadium (London)

After a 1:1 draw in Spain, Arsenal and Atletico Madrid will face off in the second leg of the Champions League semi-finals at the Emirates Stadium in London. Following their draw, both teams secured wins in their domestic leagues - Arsenal 3:0 over Fulham and Atletico Madrid 2:0 over Valencia. 

Let's break down the game and find the best possible bet for this Champions League tie. 

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Atletico Madrid

    1 : 1

    Arsenal

    Champions League

  2. Arsenal

    4 : 0

    Atletico Madrid

    Champions League

  3. Atletico Madrid

    1 : 0

    Arsenal

    Europa League

  4. Arsenal

    1 : 1

    Atletico Madrid

    Europa League

In the previous H2H game, a week ago, we saw a 1:1 draw, with both teams scoring from the penalty spot. However, the impression was that the Spanish team was slightly better and probably deserved a win more. In total, these teams have met six times. Atletico Madrid have won once, while Arsenal have secured two victories. 

When it comes to the number of goals, we saw three or more goals in two of them, at least in regular time. Meanwhile, both teams scored in four of those eight. 

Arsenal

Arsenal team overview

Arsenal have been good throughout the season. However, a one-month bad period between mid-March and mid-April completely ruined their season. During that time, the Gunners suffered an EFL Cup final defeat, were eliminated from the FA Cup quarter-finals, and dropped points in the Premier League, massively complicating their title chances. Still, with a win over Fulham in the previous game, they put pressure on Manchester City, which are six points behind, and have played two games fewer. 

So, the Gunners' season could be their best ever if they win the Premier League and their first-ever Champions League title. Still, that, of course, won't be an easy task.

For the upcoming game, Arsenal will be without Jurrien Timber and Mikel Merino, who are ruled out definitively. Meanwhile, Kai Havertz and Martin Odegaard are listed as questionable. According to credible sources, Havertz has a better chance of recovering on time for the Atletico Madrid game. 

Last matches of Arsenal

  1. Arsenal

    3 : 0

    Fulham

    Premier League

  2. Atletico Madrid

    1 : 1

    Arsenal

    Champions League

  3. Arsenal

    1 : 0

    Newcastle United

    Premier League

  4. Manchester City

    2 : 1

    Arsenal

    Premier League

  5. Arsenal

    0 : 0

    Sporting CP

    Champions League

Arsenal lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    David Raya

Defenders

  • 4

    Ben White

  • 2

    William Saliba

  • 6

    Gabriel

  • 5

    Piero Hincapié

Midfielders

  • 36

    Martín Zubimendi

  • 41

    Declan Rice

  • 49

    Myles Lewis-Skelly

Forwards

  • 7

    Bukayo Saka

  • 14

    Viktor Gyökeres

  • 11

    Gabriel Martinelli

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid team overview

After winning the La Liga title in the 2020/21 season, Atletico Madrid has been the 3rd or 4th-best team in Spain. This year, the Colchoneros are once again around their usual place, currently sitting in 4th place and are without any danger of dropping out of the top four and Champions League spots. Colchoneros have had a similar problem as Arsenal, collapsing for around a month period between mid-March and mid-April. They lost seven of eight games during that period, including the Copa del Rey Finals to Real Sociedad. But like their next opponent, Colchoneros bounced back lately and started playing well. 

Coach Diego Simeone had eight important players out for the previous game(s). However, Julian Alvarez, Giuliano Simeone, Alexander Sorloth, and David Hancko will most likely return on time for the Arsenal game. Meanwhile, Pablo Barrios, Jose Gimenez, Nico Gonzalez, and Marcos Llorente will likely remain sidelined with their injuries.

Last matches of Atletico Madrid

  1. Valencia

    0 : 2

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

  2. Atletico Madrid

    1 : 1

    Arsenal

    Champions League

  3. Atletico Madrid

    3 : 2

    Athletic Bilbao

    La Liga

  4. Elche

    3 : 2

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

  5. Atletico Madrid

    3 : 4

    Real Sociedad

    Copa Del Rey

Atletico Madrid lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 13

    Jan Oblak

Defenders

  • 16

    Nahuel Molina

  • 18

    Marc Pubill

  • 17

    Dávid Hancko

  • 3

    Matteo Ruggeri

Midfielders

  • 22

    Ademola Lookman

  • 6

    Koke

  • 5

    Johnny Cardoso

  • 20

    Giuliano Simeone

Forwards

  • 19

    Julián Alvarez

  • 7

    Antoine Griezmann

Prediction

In the previous leg, we saw a 1:1 draw, but both teams scored from the penalty spots. While both teams had their chances, we cannot really say they created too many clear-cut ones. 

Also, the Gunners exclusively played low-scoring games in the Champions League knockout phase, going under 2.5 goals in all five games, while allowing only two goals. In recent games, they really impressed defensively, especially at home, keeping a clean sheet in three consecutive games. On the other hand, Atletico Madrid weren't as good for this bet lately, but that is mainly due to an uncharacteristic bad defense. However, they improved on that end, allowing one goal in back-to-back games. 

Considering all the above, we believe that an under 2.5 goals bet is the safest option for this Champions League semi-finals tie. 

3 Reasons why we should see fewer than three goals

  1. The first H2H game ended as a 1:1 draw
  2. Arsenal kept a clean sheet in the last three home games
  3. Arsenal went under 2.5 goals in all five Champions League knockout phase games

Main prediction Arsenal - Atletico Madrid

Under 2.5 goals

Updated

clock
winrate

54% winrate

wins

3 wins in a row

Nikola has been betting for 10+ years and in the last couple of years he really improved his skills and made a lot of profit. He focuses mostly on football and basketball.

Best Odds:

22bet

1.97

Bet here

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid standings in Champions League

League Stage P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 Arsenal 8 8 0 0 23 - 4 +19 24
2 FC Bayern München 8 7 0 1 22 - 8 +14 21
3 Liverpool 8 6 0 2 20 - 8 +12 18
4 Tottenham Hotspur 8 5 2 1 17 - 7 +10 17
5 FC Barcelona 8 5 1 2 22 - 14 +8 16
6 Chelsea 8 5 1 2 17 - 10 +7 16
7 Sporting CP 8 5 1 2 17 - 11 +6 16
8 Manchester City 8 5 1 2 15 - 9 +6 16
9 Real Madrid 8 5 0 3 21 - 12 +9 15
10 Inter 8 5 0 3 15 - 7 +8 15
11 Paris Saint Germain 8 4 2 2 21 - 11 +10 14
12 Newcastle United 8 4 2 2 17 - 7 +10 14
13 Juventus 8 3 4 1 14 - 10 +4 13
14 Atlético Madrid 8 4 1 3 17 - 15 +2 13
15 Atalanta 8 4 1 3 10 - 10 0 13
16 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 3 3 2 13 - 14 -1 12
17 Borussia Dortmund 8 3 2 3 19 - 17 +2 11
18 Olympiacos F.C. 8 3 2 3 10 - 14 -4 11
19 Club Brugge 8 3 1 4 15 - 17 -2 10
20 Galatasaray 8 3 1 4 9 - 11 -2 10
21 Monaco 8 2 4 2 8 - 14 -6 10
22 Qarabağ 8 3 1 4 13 - 21 -8 10
23 Bodø / Glimt 8 2 3 3 14 - 15 -1 9
24 Benfica 8 3 0 5 10 - 12 -2 9
25 Olympique Marseille 8 3 0 5 11 - 14 -3 9
26 Pafos FC 8 2 3 3 8 - 11 -3 9
27 Union Saint-Gilloise 8 3 0 5 8 - 17 -9 9
28 PSV 8 2 2 4 16 - 16 0 8
29 Athletic Club 8 2 2 4 9 - 14 -5 8
30 Napoli 8 2 2 4 9 - 15 -6 8
31 FC København 8 2 2 4 12 - 21 -9 8
32 Ajax 8 2 0 6 8 - 21 -13 6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt 8 1 1 6 10 - 21 -11 4
34 Slavia Praha 8 0 3 5 5 - 19 -14 3
35 Villarreal 8 0 1 7 5 - 18 -13 1
36 Kairat 8 0 1 7 7 - 22 -15 1

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can find the match officially on the Arena Sport channel.

? How much is the average xG for Arsenal?

The average xG for Arsenal in the Champions League this season is 1.80.

? How much is the average xG for Atletico Madrid?

The average xG for Atletico Madrid in the Champions League this season is 1.65.