Contents
- Competition: Champions League Qualifiers, 3rd Round, 2nd Leg
- Date: Tuesday, 11th August, 2026
- Kickoff: 19:30 UK / 20:30 CEST
- Venue: Merkur-Arena (Graz)
Following a comfortable 2:0 win for Fenerbahce over Sturm Graz in the first leg of the Champions League 3rd Round Qualifiers, these teams will face off in the second leg in Austria. Even before the first leg, the Turkish team was a clear favorite to advance, but now, with a two-goal advantage, it seems that the Austrian team would need a miracle. The bookies offer odds of only 1.03-1.05 for Fenerbahce to advance, while the odds on Sturm Graz are up to 14.
Let's break down the game and find the best possible bet for this Champions League Qualifiers tie.
SK Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahce Head to Head (H2H) stats
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Fenerbahce
2 : 0
SK Sturm Graz
Champions League
-
Fenerbahce
1 : 1
SK Sturm Graz
Europa League
-
SK Sturm Graz
1 : 2
Fenerbahce
Europa League
In the first leg in Turkey, Fenerbahce won 2:0. They completely dominated the game, taking the lead early, in the 9th minute, and controlling the game throughout. In the end, they had 72% ball possession, 1.38 xG compared to Sturm Graz's 0.16, and 10 shots on goal compared to Sturm Graz's 1.
Before the duel last week, these teams met in 2017 in the Europa League Semi-Finals. That time, Fenerbahce won 2:1 on the road, and the duel in Turkey finished 1:1.
Sturm Graz team overview
Sturm Graz had a very good season, finishing 2nd in the Austrian Bundesliga, just two points away from the title. Over the Summer, it seems they only improved the team, but it looks like that won't be enough to grant them a spot in the Champions League main phase. In the previous round, they faced Hearts, and while they recorded a massive 6:0 win on aggregate, there are some visible flaws, especially in controlling possession.
But overall, the start of the season has been solid. In six games across competitions, they registered a 4-1-1 W-D-L record.
After a 2:0 win over Hartberg in the previous game, coach Fabio Ingolitsch spoke to the media. He was pleased with the win, but was particularly impressed with the subs, saying they eventually sealed the game. The coach also praised the team through the difficult stretch of games, given the fact that this was their fifth in the last 15 days.
Last matches of SK Sturm Graz
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Hartberg
0 : 2
SK Sturm Graz
Admiral Bundesliga
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Fenerbahce
2 : 0
SK Sturm Graz
Champions League
-
Tirol Innsbruck
1 : 1
SK Sturm Graz
Admiral Bundesliga
-
Hearts
0 : 2
SK Sturm Graz
Champions League
-
Seekirchen
0 : 3
SK Sturm Graz
Austrian Cup
SK Sturm Graz lineup
Goalkeeper
-
53
Daniil Khudyakov
Defenders
-
28
Jürgen Heil
-
5
Albert Vallci
-
2
Jeyland Mitchell
-
18
Emran Soglo
Midfielders
-
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
-
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
-
39
Luca Weinhandl
-
19
Simon Seidl
Forwards
-
17
Szymon Wlodarczyk
-
20
Seedy Jatta
Fenerbahce team overview
Fenerbahce invested a lot of money in recent years, adding high-profile players and managers. However, they haven't had much success, as they only won one Cup title in 2022/23. Last year, they finished the season trophyless and still heavily improved the roster. The popular Yellow Canaries are eager for the titles and a deep run in the European competition.
Before the Sturm Graz duel, Fenerbahce eliminated Górnik Zabrze on a 2:1 aggregate. They deservedly advanced, but probably no one was too happy with their performance, especially on the road.
After a 2:0 win over Sturm Graz, coach İsmail Kartal spoke to the media. He said they won 2:0 but that they could have easily won by a bigger margin. The coach was satisfied with the game and was especially delighted that they almost completely shut down Sturm from creating goalscoring chances.
Last matches of Fenerbahce
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Fenerbahce
2 : 0
SK Sturm Graz
Champions League
-
Gornik Zabrze
1 : 1
Fenerbahce
Champions League
-
Fenerbahce
1 : 0
Gornik Zabrze
Champions League
-
LASK Linz
1 : 2
Fenerbahce
Club Friendlies 1
-
Fenerbahce
4 : 0
Pogon Szczecin
Club Friendlies 1
Fenerbahce lineup
Goalkeeper
-
34
Mert Günok
Defenders
-
27
Nélson Semedo
-
37
Milan Škriniar
-
15
Nathan Aké
-
24
Jayden Oosterwolde
Midfielders
-
91
N'Golo Kanté
-
10
Marco Asensio
-
6
Mattéo Guendouzi
Forwards
-
11
Mason Greenwood
-
94
Talisca
-
9
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Prediction
Sturm Graz went under 2.5 goals in the past four games across competitions. Meanwhile, Fenerbahce went under the mentioned line in all three games this season.
In the first leg, Fenerbahce completely controlled the game and did not allow Sturm to create chances. Now, with no real need to attack as they have a two-goal advantage, we believe they will try to slow the pace and not attack carelessly. Also, even though Fenerbahce definitely have the potential to score a lot against most teams, they have a problem with efficiency. In three games thus far, they recorded a 5.65 xG and scored only four goals, which is far from ideal.
Moreover, in the duel against Gornik Zabrze on the road, Fenerbahce drew 1:1 with their only goal coming from a penalty spot.
Considering all the above, an under 2.5 goals bet seems like the best possible option for this Champions League Qualifiers tie.
3 Reasons why we should see fewer than three goals
- Sturm Graz went under 2.5 goals in the last four games across competitions
- Fenerbahce went under 2.5 goals in all three official games this season
- Fenerbahce scored "only" four goals in the first three games despite having 5.65 xG
Main prediction SK Sturm Graz - Fenerbahce
Under 2.5 goals
Best Odds: