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Monaco vs Toulouse prediction 10.10.2026 | Ligue 1

Monaco

Monaco

Kick off:

Date:

Toulouse

Toulouse

1

1.64

X

4.47

2

5.44

  • Competition: Ligue 1
  • Date: Saturday, 10th October 2026
  • Kickoff: 19:45 UK / 20:45 CEST
  • Venue: Stade Louis II (Monaco)

Ligue 1 leaders, Monaco, will welcome Toulouse in the first match after the international break. Both teams are coming off victories in the previous round and will like to continue their good run. Can Monaco beat Toulouse and stay at the top? Let's break down the match and find the best betting option. 

Monaco vs Toulouse Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Toulouse

    2 : 2

    Monaco

    Ligue 1

  2. Monaco

    1 : 0

    Toulouse

    Ligue 1

  3. Toulouse

    1 : 1

    Monaco

    Ligue 1

  4. Monaco

    2 : 0

    Toulouse

    Ligue 1

  5. Monaco

    1 : 2

    Toulouse

    Ligue 1

  6. Toulouse

    1 : 2

    Monaco

    Ligue 1

Monaco are usually better than Toulouse in H2H matches, as they won two of the last four meetings, with two draws. In the previous encounter, it was 2-2 at Stadium de Toulouse. Interestingly, that was the first high-scoring H2H game between the two sides after three consecutive matches with two or fewer goals. 

Monaco

Monaco team overview

Last season was one of Monaco's worst in the previous decade. They finished seventh in Ligue 1 and are hoping for a much better 2026/27 campaign. Monaco were excellent in recent weeks, with four wins and one draw, and are currently top of the table with two points more than Paris FC and Lyon, while the country's strongest team, PSG, trails by five points. In the most recent outing, Monaco won 2-1 at home against Lens. The hosts were the better side and deserved all three points, but eventually, they needed good fortune and Jonathan Gradit's own goal late in the match to seal the victory.  

Monaco's Paris Brunner, who already scored four goals this season, will serve a suspension on Saturday against Toulouse. After scoring against Strasbourg, the striker made a throat-slicing gesture toward away fans and was punished by the disciplinary commission. In his absence, Folarin Balogun, who appeared in only 14 minutes this season due to a knee injury, will start. 

Mamadou Coulibaly and Stanis Idumbo will miss the upcoming Ligue 1 round due to injuries, while Aleksandr Golovin is questionable. 

Last matches of Monaco

  1. Monaco

    2 : 1

    RC Lens

    Ligue 1

  2. Strasbourg

    1 : 1

    Monaco

    Ligue 1

  3. PSG

    1 : 2

    Monaco

    Ligue 1

  4. Monaco

    2 : 0

    Marseille

    Ligue 1

  5. Monaco

    4 : 1

    Gornik Zabrze

    Europa Conference League

Monaco lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Lukas Hradecky

Defenders

  • 2

    Vanderson

  • 72

    Sadibou Sane

  • 15

    Eric Dier

  • 20

    Nazinho

Midfielders

  • 37

    Edan Diop

  • 8

    Lamine Camara

  • 6

    Denis Zakaria

  • 10

    Aleksandr Golovin

Forwards

  • 9

    Folarin Balogun

  • 11

    Matthis Abline

Toulouse

Toulouse team overview

Toulouse are one of the most stable mid-table teams in recent years, and they are aiming for a similar 2026/27 campaign. The opening four rounds weren't encouraging, but in the previous game, they beat Le Havre 3-2 at home. However, the hosts didn't impress that time either, as the visitors finished with higher xG and more shots on goal. Now, Toulouse travel to the Ligue 1 leaders and will need to show much more defensively to secure points at Stade Louis II. 

Toulouse's captain missed the previous two matches due to a calf injury, and it seems the reliable center-back will skip the trip to Monaco, too. In his absence, Seny Koumbassa should continue to start alongside Mark McKenzie. The good news is that Abu Francis has recovered and should be an option for midfield. 

Last matches of Toulouse

  1. Toulouse

    2 : 3

    Pau

    Club Friendlies 3

  2. Toulouse

    3 : 2

    Le Havre

    Ligue 1

  3. Lorient

    2 : 2

    Toulouse

    Ligue 1

  4. Toulouse

    0 : 1

    Lille

    Ligue 1

  5. Brest

    2 : 2

    Toulouse

    Ligue 1

Toulouse lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 16

    Guillaume Restes

Defenders

  • 22

    Rafik Messali

  • 5

    Seny Koumbassa

  • 3

    Mark McKenzie

  • 12

    Christ Tape

Midfielders

  • 8

    Thomas Jorgensen

  • 14

    Niko Sigur

  • 23

    Cristian Casseres Jr.

  • 37

    Ilyas Azizi

Forwards

  • 20

    Casper Tengstedt

  • 13

    Jacen Russel-Rowe

Prediction

Monaco are impressive at the start of the new season with four wins from the first five matches. On the other hand, Toulouse triumphed only once in five Ligue 1 rounds. The hosts are significantly better than Toulouse and should dominate on Saturday night. Our prediction: Monaco to win and cover AH -1 spread. 

4 Reasons why Monaco should win and cover AH -1 spread

  1. Monaco won four of five matches this season
  2. Monaco conceded only three goals in five Ligue 1 rounds
  3. Toulouse triumphed only once in five games this season
  4. Toulouse allowed nine goals in five league rounds

Main prediction Monaco - Toulouse

AH1 (-1)

Updated

clock
winrate

51% winrate

wins

2 wins in a row

During 15 years of betting, Nemanja gradually improved his skills to help others bet wisely. He's been playing basketball on a youth level, but is interested basically in every sport, especially football and tennis.

Best Odds:

Megapari

1.98

Bet here

Monaco vs Toulouse standings in Ligue 1

Regular Season P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 8 - 3 +5 13
2 Olympique Lyonnais 5 3 2 0 10 - 2 +8 11
3 Paris 5 3 2 0 8 - 3 +5 11
4 LOSC Lille 5 3 1 1 8 - 4 +4 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 8 - 9 -1 10
6 Paris Saint Germain 5 2 2 1 8 - 7 +1 8
7 Angers SCO 5 2 1 2 6 - 5 +1 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 10 - 10 0 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 9 - 9 0 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 7 - 12 -5 6
11 Brest 5 1 2 2 7 - 8 -1 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5 - 6 -1 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 7 - 9 -2 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 3 - 6 -3 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 9 - 9 0 4
16 Troyes 5 1 1 3 4 - 11 -7 4
17 Olympique Marseille 5 1 0 4 7 - 8 -1 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 4 - 7 -3 2

Monaco vs Toulouse – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can find the match officially on the Arena Sport channel.

? How much is the average xG for Monaco this season?

The average xG for Monaco in Ligue 1 this season is 1.25.

? How much is the average xG for Toulouse this season?

The average xG for Toulouse in Ligue 1 this season is 1.60.