Italy vs Turkey prediction 05.10.2026 | UEFA Nations League

Italy's improvement since their opening defeat has been evident, collecting four points from their last two matches. Their 4-1 victory over Turkey was particularly clinical: despite having only 46% possession and being narrowly outshot 15-14, Italy registered eight attempts on target compared with Turkey's three.

Mancini's side then secured a valuable 1-1 draw in France, with Bastoni cancelling out Michael Olise's opener. The Azzurri managed to match and even outperform Les Bleus in terms of shots (14 vs 18) and goalscoring opportunities (3 vs 1), despite recording just 35% possession.

Mancini has deliberately rotated his large squad during this international window, even leaving nine players at Coverciano rather than taking them to Paris in preparation for the Turkey match. Giacomo Raspadori is unavailable, however, after undergoing medical tests and leaving the Italy camp because of injury.

Turkey's first League A campaign has started poorly. Vincenzo Montella's team have lost all three matches, scoring only once and conceding eight times. Their latest setback was Friday's 3-0 defeat in Belgium, where Kevin De Bruyne scored twice before Romelu Lukaku completed the scoring.

Interestingly, Turkey produced 23 shots, eight on target and 46% possession against Belgium, suggesting their performance was more competitive than the scoreline indicates. However, their defensive efficiency remains a major concern after conceding seven goals across their last two fixtures.

Montella also faces significant selection problems. Arda Güler is suspended, while Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız are expected to remain unavailable through injury.