Netherlands vs Serbia prediction 04.10.2026 | Nations League

Netherlands are one of the most stable European teams. They are regularly among the best teams on the continent. After the World Cup and their 1/16 final defeat to Morocco, Xavi and his team turned to the Nations League, where the Netherlands have collected five points in three matches so far. They trail Greece by two points but are one point ahead of Germany, and between those three teams, two will progress to the knockout phase. In the previous round, the Netherlands played 2-2 on the road against Greece. The visitors were 2-0 down at half-time, but they dominated the second half and eventually deservedly salvaged a point. 

Netherlands head coach Xavi was disappointed with the first half against Greece. He commented, "The first half was really bad. It was important to create chances from the start, but we did nothing. There wasn't enough intensity and ambition. That was my mistake. Maybe the lineup wasn't right." 

Xavi also added that they want to play as they did in the second half. 

Serbia had a few solid years, but it seems they are getting back to their usual level. After missing out on the World Cup, Veljko Paunovic's team had seven matches, including friendlies, and lost six. In the Nations League, they have three defeats so far, and it would be a huge surprise if Serbia somehow avoided relegation to League B. In the most recent outing, they lost 2-0 on the road against Germany. However, the final result could be significantly worse, as the hosts finished with xG of 3.81, while the visitors had only 0.01.

Serbia had high expectations for Veljko Paunovic, but he is damaging his reputation with every game he manages. Paunovic led Serbia to World Cup U20 title in 2015, but some of his decisions during the Nations League are questionable at best. He has too much faith in Shabab Al-Ahli's Nemanja Maksimovic, while Aleksandar Stankovic (Inter Milan) and Sasa Lukic (Ipswich) sit on the bench. Also, Lazar Samardzic, one of the rare creative Serbian players, got only 24 minutes in three Nations League rounds.

Although Serbia are losing constantly, Veljko Paunovic still has faith that everything will soon change. He stated, "Everyone close to us knows that we are working to correct a negative atmosphere. We have brought the leaders back, brought in talented players, and we are building a system. But that takes time, and at the same time we are competing against teams that are ahead of us. We are not yet where we might be one day. But a lot of work is needed."