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Portugal vs Norway prediction 04.10.2026 | UEFA Nations League

Portugal

Portugal

Kick off:

Date:

Norway

Norway

1

1.66

X

4.60

2

4.75

  • Competition: UEFA Nations League
  • Date: 4th October, 2026
  • Kickoff: 19:45 UK / 20:45 CEST
  • Venue: Estádio do Dragão

Portugal host Norway in Porto on Sunday. The match is the fourth round of UEFA Nations League League A Group 4 and comes just three days after both teams played their third group fixtures.

Portugal vs Norway Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Norway

    1 : 2

    Portugal

    UEFA Nations League

  2. Portugal

    3 : 0

    Norway

    Friendly International

  3. Portugal

    1 : 0

    Norway

    Euro Qualification

  4. Norway

    1 : 0

    Portugal

    Euro Qualification

The most recent meeting came only a week ago, when Portugal won 2-1 in Oslo. However, the statistics suggested a much more competitive contest than the scoreline indicated: Norway had 62% possession, 22 shots and six shots on target, compared with Portugal's 12 shots and four on target. Norway's 2.81 expected goals were also substantially higher than Portugal's 1.03.

Portugal

Portugal team overview

Portugal have made an excellent start under Jorge Jesus, winning all three matches. On Thursday, they scored four against Denmark in Copenhagen to claim a comprehensive 4-2 victory, increasing the gap to six points at the top of Group 4 standings. They were extremely clinical in front of goal, scoring four times despite producing an xG value of only 2.09.

Victory aside, Cristiano Ronaldo is the major question mark. The 41-year-old left Portugal's training camp before the Denmark match and subsequently missed the 4-2 victory. Reuters reported that his departure has created uncertainty over his immediate international future, meaning his availability for the Norway match remains unclear as of 2 October.

Bruno Fernandes, who missed the previous meeting with Norway because of an injury, returned to the side against Denmark and contributed to a four-goal performance. Portugal's attacking depth was also demonstrated by goals from João Cancelo, Gonçalo Ramos, Vitinha and João Félix in Copenhagen.

Last matches of Portugal

  1. Denmark

    2 : 4

    Portugal

    UEFA Nations League

  2. Norway

    1 : 2

    Portugal

    UEFA Nations League

  3. Portugal

    1 : 0

    Wales

    UEFA Nations League

  4. Portugal

    0 : 1

    Spain

    World Cup

  5. Portugal

    5 : 0

    Uzbekistan

    World Cup

Portugal lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Diogo Costa

Defenders

  • 20

    João Cancelo

  • 3

    Rúben Dias

  • 13

    Renato Veiga

  • 19

    Nuno Mendes

Midfielders

  • 21

    Rúben Neves

  • 23

    Vitinha

  • 8

    Bruno Fernandes

Forwards

  • 18

    Pedro Neto

  • 7

    Rafael Leão

  • 9

    Gonçalo Ramos

Norway

Norway team overview

Norway's campaign has become more difficult. After beating Denmark 3-2 in their opener, they lost 2-1 to Portugal and then suffered another 2-1 defeat away to Wales on Thursday. The latter result was particularly damaging because Norway led through Oscar Bobb before Torbjørn Heggem was sent off immediately after half-time.

Heggem will therefore miss the return match in Porto through suspension. Norway also need Martin Ødegaard to recover from an ankle problem after the Arsenal midfielder was reported as doubtful for the Porto fixture.

Erling Haaland remains Norway's principal attacking threat. He scored twice against Denmark but had a relatively quiet game against Wales, registering only 11 touches in the first half.

Last matches of Norway

  1. Wales

    2 : 1

    Norway

    UEFA Nations League

  2. Norway

    1 : 2

    Portugal

    UEFA Nations League

  3. Norway

    3 : 2

    Denmark

    UEFA Nations League

  4. Norway

    0 : 1

    England

    World Cup

  5. Brazil

    1 : 2

    Norway

    World Cup

Norway lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Ørjan Nyland

Defenders

  • 14

    Julian Ryerson

  • 3

    Kristoffer Ajer

  • 5

    David Møller Wolfe

  • 7

    Fredrik Aursnes

Midfielders

  • 6

    Patrick Berg

  • 8

    Sander Berge

  • 10

    Martin Ødegaard

Forwards

  • 20

    Antonio Nusa

  • 21

    Andreas Schjelderup

  • 9

    Erling Haaland

Prediction

The first meeting showed that Norway can create significant chances against Portugal, so another competitive game is possible. However, Portugal's recent attacking output should give them the edge. Portugal’s six-goal showdown with Denmark also demonstrated how potent their attack is, although defensive issues are evident, with Portugal conceding three times in their last two Nations League fixtures. With both teams possessing plenty of attacking talent but lacking defensive solidity, this could be a cracking game with over 3.5 goals.

Prediction: Over 3.5 Goals.

Three reasons we expect Over 3.5 Goals

  1. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches: Portugal's last two Nations League games ended 2-1 and 4-2, while Norway's last two finished 2-1 and 2-1. 
  2. Norway's defence has struggled to keep opponents out. They have conceded in all three Nations League matches so far, while Portugal have also conceded in their last two. 
  3. Portugal's 4-2 win over Denmark was a solid indication of what could happen on Sunday. They are a free-flowing side, but when faced with reasonably competitive opposition, they are prone to conceding.

Main prediction Portugal - Norway

Over 3.5 goals

Updated

clock
winrate

54% winrate

wins

3 wins in a row

I have been familiar with sports betting and football betting in particular for 10 years, so I have a good knowledge of analysing and researching football bets to make the best possible predictions.

Best Odds:

Megapari

2.23

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Portugal vs Norway standings in UEFA Nations League

Group 4 P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 Portugal 3 3 0 0 7 - 3 +4 9
2 Denmark 3 1 0 2 6 - 7 -1 3
3 Norway 3 1 0 2 5 - 6 -1 3
4 Wales 3 1 0 2 2 - 4 -2 3

Portugal vs Norway – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can watch Portugal take on Norway on the Sofascore app.

? What is the average number of corners Portugal have won in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27?

6.3

? What is the average number of corners Norway have won in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27?

4.7