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Italy vs France prediction 12.11.2026 | Nations League

Italy

Italy

Kick off:

Date:

France

France

1

4.60

X

3.85

2

1.70

  • Competition: Nations League
  • Date: Thursday, 12th November 2026
  • Kickoff: 19:45 UK / 20:45 CET
  • Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (Milan)

The Nations League returns on Thursday, and in one of the derbies of the round, Italy will welcome France. Both teams have played well so far and are only one or two strong results away from securing a place in the quarterfinals. Can Italy take points in Milan? Let's break down the match and find the best betting option. 

Italy vs France Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. France

    1 : 1

    Italy

    UEFA Nations League

  2. Italy

    1 : 3

    France

    UEFA Nations League

  3. France

    1 : 3

    Italy

    UEFA Nations League

  4. France

    3 : 1

    Italy

    Friendly International

  5. Italy

    1 : 3

    France

    Friendly International

  6. Italy

    1 : 2

    France

    Friendly International

France won four of the last six H2H matches against their next opponent. Meanwhile, Azzurri triumphed once in the same period, with one draw. The last meeting was last month, when it was 1-1. Also, it is worth noting that it was the first low-scoring H2H game after five consecutive games with at least three goals. 

Italy

Italy team overview

Italy had some tough years behind them. They missed the last World Cup, but in the Nations League, Roberto Mancini's team has played well so far and seems on the right track. After four rounds, Italy are second with seven points and could already secure the playoffs on Thursday night. Azzurri are unbeaten in the last three matches. In the previous game, they won 3-1 at home against Turkey. The teams were pretty even, but the hosts' better efficiency was enough for all three points. 

Italy have some injury problems at the moment. Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Gianluca Mancini, Moise Kean, Mohamed Ali Zoma, Giacomo Raspadori, and Matteo Ruggeri are all out for two Nations League games. On the other hand, Federico Dimarco, Nicolo Zaniolo, Federico Gatti, Marco Palestra, Niccolo Pisilli, and Luca Koleosho returned to the national team. Also, youngsters Alphadjo Cisse, Mattia Liberali, Riccardo Cassano, Simone Lontani, and Matteo Palma received their first call-ups. 

Last matches of Italy

  1. Italy

    3 : 1

    Turkey

    UEFA Nations League

  2. France

    1 : 1

    Italy

    UEFA Nations League

  3. Turkey

    1 : 4

    Italy

    UEFA Nations League

  4. Italy

    0 : 2

    Belgium

    UEFA Nations League

  5. Greece

    0 : 1

    Italy

    Friendly International

Italy lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Gianluigi Donnarumma

Defenders

  • 2

    Michael Kayode

  • 19

    Giorgio Scalvini

  • 6

    Alessandro Bastoni

  • 5

    Riccardo Calafiori

Midfielders

  • 18

    Nicolo Barella

  • 8

    Sandro Tonali

  • 16

    Davide Frattesi

Forwards

  • 21

    Antonio Vergara

  • 9

    Pio Esposito

  • 7

    Nicolo Cambiaghi

France

France team overview

France are undoubtedly one of the top three or four teams in the world. They were excellent so far in the Nations League and, with ten points from the first four rounds, are very close to the quarterfinals. Their easiest win came in the most recent outing, when Zinedine Zidane's team beat Belgium 4-1 at home. Although the visitors led until the 77th minute, the hosts completely outplayed them for the rest of the match, scored four goals, and secured another victory. 

France have a long list of absentees, too. They will be without Ousmane Dembele, Jules Kounde, Maxence Lacroix, Manu Kone, Esteban Lepaul, Maghnes Akliouche, and Pierre Kalulu. Dayot Upamecano will miss Thursday's game due to suspension. On the other hand, Aurelien Tchouameni, Ibrahima Konate, Warren Zaire-Emery, Robin Risser, Malo Gusto, and Marcus Thuram returned to the squad after missing previous matches. Also, Pablo Pagis and Sael Kumbedi received their first call-ups. 

Last matches of France

  1. France

    4 : 1

    Belgium

    UEFA Nations League

  2. France

    1 : 1

    Italy

    UEFA Nations League

  3. Belgium

    0 : 1

    France

    UEFA Nations League

  4. Turkey

    0 : 1

    France

    UEFA Nations League

  5. France

    4 : 6

    England

    World Cup

France lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 16

    Mike Maignan

Defenders

  • 2

    Malo Gusto

  • 22

    Jeremy Jacquet

  • 15

    Ibrahima Konate

  • 3

    Adrien Truffert

Midfielders

  • 18

    Warren Zaire-Emery

  • 9

    Rayan Cherki

  • 8

    Aurelien Tchouameni

Forwards

  • 11

    Michael Olise

  • 10

    Kylian Mbappe

  • 12

    Bradley Barcola

Prediction

Both teams have played well lately. Italy are unbeaten in the last three matches, while France have three wins and one draw so far in the Nations League. Also, one month ago, the two teams played 1-1 in Paris. The two teams are closer than the odds suggest, and we should expect Italy to avoid defeat in the upcoming tie. 

3 Reasons why Italy should avoid defeat in this match

  1. Italy are undefeated in the last three matches
  2. Italy scored eight goals in the previous three games
  3. Last month, France and Italy played 1-1 in Paris

Main prediction Italy - France

Italy win or draw (1X)

Updated

clock
winrate

51% winrate

wins

2 wins in a row

During 15 years of betting, Nemanja gradually improved his skills to help others bet wisely. He's been playing basketball on a youth level, but is interested basically in every sport, especially football and tennis.

Best Odds:

22bet

2.06

Bet here

Italy vs France standings in UEFA Nations League

Group 1 P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 France 4 3 1 0 7 - 2 +5 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 8 - 5 +3 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6 - 5 +1 6
4 Türkiye 4 0 0 4 2 - 11 -9 0

Italy vs France – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can find the match officially on the Arena Sport channel.

? How much is the average xG for Italy this season?

The average xG for Italy in the Nations League this season is 1.71.

? How much is the average xG for France this season?

The average xG for France in the Nations League this season is 2.15.