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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction 20.09.2026 | La Liga

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

Kick off:

Date:

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

1

3.72

X

3.92

2

2.03

  • Competition: La Liga
  • Date: Sunday, 20th September, 2026
  • Kickoff: 15:15 UK / 16:15 CEST
  • Venue: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid)

On Sunday evening, the 244th Madrid derby between Atlético and Real will take place at Metropolitano Stadium in Madrid. Both teams are coming into the game in good form: Atlético Madrid won back-to-back games against Real Sociedad and Osasuna, while Real Madrid won their last three against Inter, Rayo Vallecano, and Elche. 

Let's break down the game and find the best possible bet for the Madrid derby. 

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Real Madrid

    3 : 2

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

  2. Atletico Madrid

    1 : 2

    Real Madrid

    Super Cup

  3. Atletico Madrid

    5 : 2

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  4. Atletico Madrid

    2 : 4

    Real Madrid

    Champions League

  5. Real Madrid

    2 : 1

    Atletico Madrid

    Champions League

  6. Real Madrid

    1 : 1

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

Last season, these teams met three times, once in the Super Cup and twice in La Liga. Real Madrid won twice, and Atlético once. Looking further back, over the past ten h2h games, Atlético won twice, while Real Madrid won three times, at least in regular time.

When it comes to the number of goals, six out of the past ten h2h games ended with three or more goals. Meanwhile, both teams scored in nine of those ten h2h matches. 

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid team overview

Atlético's summer and start to the season were pretty much marked by the Alvarez saga. The Argentinian wanted to leave the club but was eventually forced to stay, and the overall feeling surrounding the club wasn't good. However, the saga did not stop the club from having a pretty good La Liga start, considering they sit in 3rd place with 13 points from six rounds. To be fair, they lost the first game of the Champions League to Liverpool, which aren't doing too great in the EPL. Despite the Liverpool Loss, we can call the start to the season a success, and it seems they are slowly getting better.

Pablo Barrios and Alexander Sorloth will most likely remain sidelined with their injuries, while Julian Alvarez is questionable with a muscle injury. However, according to credible sources, the 26-year-old Alvarez is pushing himself to accelerate his recovery. He will most likely be ready after missing the previous two games, but we do not expect him in the starting lineup. 

Last matches of Atletico Madrid

  1. Atletico Madrid

    4 : 0

    Osasuna

    La Liga

  2. Real Sociedad

    0 : 3

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

  3. Liverpool

    2 : 1

    Atletico Madrid

    Champions League

  4. Athletic Bilbao

    3 : 0

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

  5. Sevilla

    1 : 3

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

Atletico Madrid lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 13

    Jan Oblak

Defenders

  • 14

    Marcos Llorente

  • 24

    Robin Le Normand

  • 17

    Dávid Hancko

  • 22

    Alejandro Grimaldo

Midfielders

  • 7

    Kang-in Lee

  • 6

    Koke

  • 5

    Johnny Cardoso

  • 10

    Álex Baena

Forwards

  • 11

    Ademola Lookman

  • 20

    Giuliano Simeone

Real Madrid

Real Madrid team overview

Real Madrid finished the last season trophyless and brought back Jose Mourinho. Result-wise, Los Blancos started the season great under the "Special One", winning five out of six games in La Liga, while also winning the Champions League tie against Inter (2:1). However, even though the results are great and they have really good moments, there are bad ones as well. Los Blancos have struggled defensively, keeping a clean sheet only against poor Málaga, probably the worst team in the league.

Coach Mourinho should have no new injuries for the upcoming game, but Rodrygo, Ferland Mendy, and Eder Militao should remain sidelined. 

After a 3:2 win over Elche, Mourinho spoke to the media. He said they complicated the game, letting Elche get back into the match. The coach also praised the team for their response when the game got difficult, saying they handled adversity well. 

Last matches of Real Madrid

  1. Elche

    2 : 3

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  2. Real Madrid

    4 : 1

    Rayo Vallecano

    La Liga

  3. Real Madrid

    2 : 1

    Inter Milan

    Champions League

  4. Real Betis

    1 : 0

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  5. Real Madrid

    4 : 0

    Malaga

    La Liga

Real Madrid lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Thibaut Courtois

Defenders

  • 24

    Denzel Dumfries

  • 4

    Dean Huijsen

  • 16

    Ibrahima Konaté

  • 17

    Marc Cucurella

Midfielders

  • 8

    Federico Valverde

  • 5

    Jude Bellingham

  • 20

    Bernardo Silva

  • 15

    Arda Güler

Forwards

  • 10

    Kylian Mbappé

  • 7

    Vinicius Junior

Prediction

Atlético Madrid have constantly played high-scoring games this season, going over 2.5 goals in six out of seven games across competitions, while three games went over the 3.5-goal line. Also, in the last two games, they scored seven goals and should do well offensively against Real Madrid, which failed to keep a clean sheet in six out of seven games this season.

Meanwhile, Real Madrid went over 3.5 goals in their last two games, averaging 5.0 goals per game. They have been really efficient this season, scoring a total of 19 goals (2.7 per game).

Moreover, two of the previous three h2h games ended with four or more goals. Considering all the above, we expect an exciting, high-scoring game, likely with both teams scoring.

3 Reasons why we should see four or more goals

  1. Atlético Madrid scored seven goals in the past two games
  2. Real Madrid averages 2.7 goals scored in seven games this season
  3. Two of the previous three H2H games ended with four or more goals

Main prediction Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid

Over 3.5 goals

Updated

clock
winrate

54% winrate

wins

2 wins in a row

Nikola has been betting for 10+ years and in the last couple of years he really improved his skills and made a lot of profit. He focuses mostly on football and basketball.

Best Odds:

Megapari

2.20

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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid standings in La Liga

Regular Season P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 FC Barcelona 6 6 0 0 28 - 6 +22 18
2 Real Madrid 6 5 0 1 17 - 6 +11 15
3 Real Betis 6 5 0 1 8 - 6 +2 15
4 Atlético de Madrid 6 4 1 1 14 - 6 +8 13
5 Sevilla 6 4 1 1 9 - 6 +3 13
6 Deportivo Alavés 6 3 1 2 11 - 6 +5 10
7 Deportivo A Coruña 6 2 3 1 9 - 7 +2 9
8 Athletic Club 5 2 1 2 7 - 6 +1 7
9 Espanyol 7 2 1 4 10 - 10 0 7
10 Racing Santander 6 2 1 3 11 - 16 -5 7
11 Rayo Vallecano 6 2 1 3 10 - 15 -5 7
12 Real Sociedad 6 2 1 3 6 - 11 -5 7
13 Osasuna 6 2 1 3 5 - 12 -7 7
14 Villarreal 6 1 2 3 10 - 11 -1 5
15 Levante 5 1 2 2 7 - 9 -2 5
16 Getafe 6 1 2 3 3 - 7 -4 5
17 Elche 7 1 2 4 11 - 17 -6 5
18 Celta de Vigo 6 0 4 2 3 - 6 -3 4
19 Valencia 6 1 1 4 2 - 10 -8 4
20 Málaga 6 0 3 3 3 - 11 -8 3

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can find the match officially on the Arena Sport channel.

? How much is the average xG for Atlético Madrid this season?

The average xG for Atlético Madrid in La Liga this season is 1.62.

? How much is the average xG for Real Madrid this season?

The average xG for Real Madrid in La Liga this season is 3.03.