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Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction 24.09.2025 | La Liga

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

3 - 2

Elapsed: FT

Half time: 1 - 1

Full time: 3 - 2

Kick off:

Date:

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano

match ended

The match has ended, you can view today's football predictions and football predictions for tomorrow.

  • Competition: La Liga
  • Date: Wednesday, 24th September, 2025
  • Kickoff: 20:30 UK / 21:30 CEST
  • Venue: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid)

On Wednesday evening, two teams that haven't started their season on an expected level, Atletico Madrid and Rayo Vallecano, will face off in the sixth round of La Liga at Metropolitano Stadium in Madrid. 

Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Rayo Vallecano

    1 : 1

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

  2. Atletico Madrid

    2 : 1

    Rayo Vallecano

    La Liga

  3. Rayo Vallecano

    0 : 7

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

  4. Rayo Vallecano

    1 : 2

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

  5. Atletico Madrid

    1 : 1

    Rayo Vallecano

    La Liga

  6. Rayo Vallecano

    0 : 1

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

In recent h2h games, Atletico Madrid have been much better. They won ten out of the last 12 games, while the remaining two games ended as draws. 

Regarding the number of goals, five out of those 12 ended with three or more goals - 42%. Meanwhile, both teams scored in only four out of those 12 matches - 33%.

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid team overview

Atletico Madrid have been a top-three team in Spain in 12 out of the last 13 seasons. The only time they weren't in the top three was in 2023/24 when they finished fourth. Unfortunately, Colchoneros did not start this season well, considering they sit in 12th place in La Liga with only six points in the first four rounds. Besides their poor start in La Liga, Colchoneros also lost the Champions League opener (3:2) vs Liverpool. 

After a 1:1 draw with Mallorca, coach Diego Simeone spoke to the media. He said they played a good game and even took the lead with a man down. Still, he was unhappy because they allowed a goal from Mallorca's only good chance. "We need to be more effective, both in the opposition's box and in our own. I still believe we can fight for the league, and it is still early in the season," the coach added.

In the last game vs Mallorca, striker Alexander Sorloth received a red card and will be suspended for the upcoming game. However, he hasn't been on an expected level this season anyway and came off the bench in the last three matches.

Last matches of Atletico Madrid

  1. Mallorca

    1 : 1

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

  2. Liverpool

    3 : 2

    Atletico Madrid

    Champions League

  3. Atletico Madrid

    2 : 0

    Villarreal

    La Liga

  4. Alaves

    1 : 1

    Atletico Madrid

    La Liga

  5. Atletico Madrid

    1 : 1

    Elche

    La Liga

Atletico Madrid lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 13

    Jan Oblak

Defenders

  • 14

    Marcos llorente

  • 24

    Robin Le Normand

  • 15

    Clément Lenglet

  • 17

    Dávid Hancko

Midfielders

  • 20

    Giuliano Simeone

  • 6

    Koke

  • 8

    Pablo Barrios

  • 23

    Nico González

Forwards

  • 22

    Giacomo Raspadori

  • 19

    Julián Alvarez

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano team overview

Rayo Vallecano had an excellent season behind them, at least by their standards. They finished eighth and secured Europe for only the second time ever in their 101-year-old history. This season, they have had a bit of a slower start, winning five points in five rounds, which is around 0.37 points per game fewer than last year. 

After a 1:1 draw with Celta Vigo, coach Inigo Perez spoke to the media. He said they were closer to winning the game and cannot be happy with a draw. The coach also praised the team for its patience and ability to recover after conceding. 

Last matches of Rayo Vallecano

  1. Rayo Vallecano

    1 : 1

    Celta Vigo

    La Liga

  2. Osasuna

    2 : 0

    Rayo Vallecano

    La Liga

  3. Rayo Vallecano

    1 : 1

    FC Barcelona

    La Liga

  4. Rayo Vallecano

    4 : 0

    Neman Grodno

    Europa Conference League

  5. Athletic Bilbao

    1 : 0

    Rayo Vallecano

    La Liga

Rayo Vallecano lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 13

    Augusto Batalla

Defenders

  • 2

    Andrei Rațiu

  • 6

    Pathé Ciss

  • 24

    Florian Lejeune

  • 22

    Alfonso Espino

Midfielders

  • 23

    Óscar Valentín

  • 7

    Isi Palazón

  • 4

    Pedro Díaz

Forwards

  • 19

    Jorge de Frutos

  • 18

    Álvaro García

  • 10

    Sergio Camello

Prediction

Atletico Madrid went under 2.5 goals in four out of the last five matches - 80%. At home, they were both under 2.5 goals and looked especially good defensively, allowing one goal in those matches vs Elche and Villarreal. In those two matches, they allowed only three shots on goal in total, and we expect another good defensive performance at Metropolitano Stadium.

Rayo Vallecano were also under 2.5 goals in four out of five La Liga matches. They did well offensively in the first game of the season vs Girona, scoring three goals, but then were pretty bad, scoring one or zero goals in the following four La Liga games. 

Considering all the above, but especially both teams' constant low-scoring games, we believe that an under 2.5 goals bet seems like the best possible bet for this La Liga tie.

3 Reasons why we should see fewer than three goals

  1. Both teams went under 2.5 goals in four out of five La Liga games
  2. Atletico Madrid went under 2.5 goals in both of their La Liga home games
  3. Rayo Vallecano scored one or zero goals in five out of seven games across the competitions

Main prediction Atletico Madrid - Rayo Vallecano

Under 2.5 goals

Updated

clock
winrate

54% winrate

wins

8 wins in a row

Nikola has been betting for 10+ years and in the last couple of years he really improved his skills and made a lot of profit. He focuses mostly on football and basketball.

Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano standings in La Liga

Regular Season P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 FC Barcelona 37 31 1 5 94 - 33 +61 94
2 Real Madrid 37 26 5 6 73 - 33 +40 83
3 Villarreal 37 21 6 10 67 - 45 +22 69
4 Atlético Madrid 37 21 6 10 61 - 39 +22 69
5 Real Betis 37 14 15 8 57 - 47 +10 57
6 Celta de Vigo 37 13 12 12 52 - 48 +4 51
7 Getafe 37 14 6 17 31 - 38 -7 48
8 Rayo Vallecano 37 11 14 12 39 - 43 -4 47
9 Valencia 37 12 10 15 43 - 54 -11 46
10 Real Sociedad 37 11 12 14 58 - 60 -2 45
11 Espanyol 37 12 9 16 42 - 54 -12 45
12 Athletic Club 37 13 6 18 41 - 54 -13 45
13 Deportivo Alavés 37 11 10 16 43 - 54 -11 43
14 Sevilla 37 12 7 18 46 - 59 -13 43
15 Osasuna 37 11 9 17 44 - 49 -5 42
16 Elche 37 10 12 15 48 - 56 -8 42
17 Levante 37 11 9 17 46 - 59 -13 42
18 Girona 37 9 13 15 38 - 54 -16 40
19 Mallorca 37 10 9 18 44 - 57 -13 39
20 Real Oviedo 37 6 11 20 26 - 57 -31 29

Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can find the match officially on the Arena Sport channel.

? How much is the average xG for Atletico Madrid this season?

The average xG for Atletico Madrid in La Liga this season is 1.61.

? How much is the average xG for Rayo Vallecano this season?

The average xG for Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga this season is 1.56.