Aston Villa vs Chelsea prediction 04.03.2026 | Premier League
Aston Villa
1 - 4
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Half time: 1 - 2
Full time: 1 - 4
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Date:
Chelsea
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Contents
- Competition: Premier League
- Date: 4th March 2026
- Kick-off: 19:30 UK / 20:30 CET
- Venue: Villa Park
On Wednesday night, Aston Villa welcome Chelsea to Villa Park. It is one of those fixtures that feels bigger than it looks on paper. Both sides are circling the same prize. Champions League football. Six points separate them. Villa sit fourth. Chelsea are sixth. Close enough to dream. Far enough to worry.
If you glance at recent form, you might shrug. Neither side has been consistently convincing. And yet, neither has collapsed. So the margins are thin. That is exactly why this match deserves a closer look. Let us go through the form, the injuries, and yes, some realistic betting angles.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea Head to Head (H2H) stats
-
Chelsea
1 : 2
Aston Villa
Premier League
-
Aston Villa
2 : 1
Chelsea
Premier League
-
Chelsea
3 : 0
Aston Villa
Premier League
-
Aston Villa
2 : 2
Chelsea
Premier League
-
Aston Villa
1 : 3
Chelsea
FA Cup
-
Chelsea
0 : 0
Aston Villa
FA Cup
Since 2022, these two have met nine times in competitive fixtures. Seven of those were league games. Two came in the FA Cup. Villa edged it with four wins and three clean sheets. Chelsea managed three victories. Two matches ended level. The average goals per game was 2.44.
Aston Villa team overview
Villa’s long winning run, which ended at the Emirates in late December, now feels like another season. One victory in their last five league matches has cooled the title talk and brought a different concern. Holding onto fourth place.
The 2–0 defeat at Wolves last Friday was especially disappointing. Bottom of the table club that was winless in eight league matches.
Unai Emery still trusts Ollie Watkins despite a four-game goal drought. Leon Bailey may start, while Emiliano Buendía could drop out.
In midfield, absences hurt. Youri Tielemans remains sidelined, alongside Boubacar Kamara, John McGinn and Harvey Elliott. That weakens structure and control, particularly against high pressing teams.
Last matches of Aston Villa
-
Wolverhampton Wanderers
2 : 0
Aston Villa
Premier League
-
Aston Villa
1 : 1
Leeds United
Premier League
-
Aston Villa
1 : 3
Newcastle United
FA Cup
-
Aston Villa
1 : 0
Brighton & Hove Albion
Premier League
-
AFC Bournemouth
1 : 1
Aston Villa
Premier League
Aston Villa lineup
Goalkeeper
-
23
Emiliano Martínez
Defenders
-
12
Lucas Digne
-
14
Pau Torres
-
4
Ezri Konsa
-
2
Matty Cash
Midfielders
-
21
Douglas Luiz
-
27
Morgan Rogers
-
24
Amadou Onana
Forwards
-
19
Jadon Sancho
-
11
Ollie Watkins
-
31
Leon Bailey
Chelsea team overview
Chelsea arrive under pressure. The recent defeat at the Emirates left them six points off the top four. Not a crisis. But close.
They showed resilience by equalising before conceding again. That pattern feels familiar. Goals at one end, vulnerability at the other.
Pedro Neto is suspended after his red card, which could open space for Alejandro Garnacho. Under Liam Rosenior, the team has improved going forward. Clean sheets, however, remain elusive.
João Pedro continues to lead the line, supported by Cole Palmer. Roméo Lavia has returned, which helps balance.
Still missing are Levi Colwill and Marc Cucurella among others. Defensive stability remains the central question.
Last matches of Chelsea
-
Arsenal
2 : 1
Chelsea
Premier League
-
Chelsea
1 : 1
Burnley
Premier League
-
Hull City
0 : 4
Chelsea
FA Cup
-
Chelsea
2 : 2
Leeds United
Premier League
-
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1 : 3
Chelsea
Premier League
Chelsea lineup
Goalkeeper
-
1
Robert Sánchez
Defenders
-
21
Jorrel Hato
-
23
Trevoh Chalobah
-
19
Mamadou Sarr
-
24
Reece James
Midfielders
-
17
Andrey Santos
-
8
Enzo Fernández
-
25
Moisés Caicedo
Forwards
-
49
Alejandro Garnacho
-
20
João Pedro
-
10
Cole Palmer
Prediction
A 2–2 draw feels realistic here. Villa have kept just one clean sheet in seven matches, while Chelsea have conceded at least twice in three of their last four. At the same time, both sides consistently find the net. With Champions League pressure and attacking quality on display, goals at both ends seem likely, but neither fully convincing defensively.
Three reasons we expect at least three goals in this game
- Each of the last five meetings between Aston Villa and Chelsea ended with over 2.5 goals.
- Seven of the last nine games of Chelsea produced three or more goals.
- Aston Villa have finished only one of their last seven games without conceding.
Main prediction Aston Villa - Chelsea
Over 2.5 goals
Aston Villa vs Chelsea standings in Premier League
| Regular Season | P | W | D | L |
G - A
|
GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 31 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 61 - 22 | +39 | 70 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 59 - 27 | +32 | 60 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 51 - 40 | +11 | 51 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 39 - 34 | +5 | 51 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 53 - 35 | +18 | 48 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 48 - 39 | +9 | 48 |
| 7 | Brentford | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 44 - 40 | +4 | 44 |
| 8 | Everton | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 34 - 35 | -1 | 43 |
| 9 | Newcastle United | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 43 - 43 | 0 | 42 |
| 10 | AFC Bournemouth | 30 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 44 - 46 | -2 | 41 |
| 11 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 39 - 36 | +3 | 40 |
| 12 | Fulham | 29 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 40 - 43 | -3 | 40 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 - 35 | -5 | 40 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 33 - 35 | -2 | 38 |
| 15 | Leeds United | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 37 - 48 | -11 | 31 |
| 16 | Tottenham Hotspur | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 39 - 46 | -7 | 29 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 28 - 43 | -15 | 28 |
| 18 | West Ham United | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 35 - 54 | -19 | 28 |
| 19 | Burnley | 30 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 32 - 58 | -26 | 20 |
| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 30 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 22 - 52 | -30 | 16 |