France vs Ireland Six Nations match prediction on February 5th

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: February 4, 2026

This year's Six Nations Championship kicks off with a bang. The defending champions, France, host Ireland in the opening match on 5 February at the Stade de France.

France look well set for another big campaign, carrying momentum from a strong Autumn Series and plenty of quality across the park. Ireland will have some fresh faces and new energy. They'll be aiming to improve on last year's third-place finish. However, the Irish begin the new campaign with a tough away trip against the tournament favourites. Below, we break down the matchup in full. Stick around for our prediction at the end.

Historically, France have had the upper hand in this rivalry, especially if you look back over the earlier decades. Lately, though, it's been far more balanced. The last 10 meetings are split evenly at five wins apiece. The most recent fixture between these two sides came in last year's Six Nations, where France won 42-27 in Dublin.

France had a solid 2025. They claimed the Six Nations title, dropping just one game along the way. It was a narrow 26-25 loss to England. They were unable to get past New Zealand in the summer and later lost to South Africa in the Autumn Nations Series. However, that result was hardly surprising given the Springboks are the strongest team in world rugby right now. France finished the autumn on a high note, beating Fiji and Australia to restore confidence. Add home advantage at the Stade de France, a squad packed with quality, and the champions look well set to make a strong start.

France Injuries & Team News

France have received a huge lift with Antoine Dupont returning to the starting XV. He'll be captaining the side after nine months out with an ACL injury. His comeback has been pushed forward by Maxime Lucu's knee problem. Another unfortunate news is that veteran prop Uini Atonio has been forced to retire after suffering a heart attack. This brings his international career to an abrupt end due to serious health concerns. Elsewhere, France have kept changes to a minimum, with Matthieu Jalibert at fly-half and Thomas Ramos at full-back.

Back-to-back Six Nations champions in 2023 and 2024, Ireland lost momentum last year after defeats to France, New Zealand, and South Africa. Their record in Paris is also a tough one, with just three wins there since the Six Nations era began. Still, Ireland can take confidence from their most recent trip to France, when they claimed a victory in Marseille in 2024. Under Andy Farrell, Ireland also arrive short-handed. Injuries, particularly in the front row, are forcing rotation. Combined with a demanding schedule, this opener will be a serious early test.

Ireland Injuries & Team News

Ireland have plenty of disruption. Hugo Keenan has been ruled out after fracturing his thumb during training at Ireland's camp, just as he was closing in on a return from hip surgery. Bundee Aki is suspended, and James Lowe is left out after limited playing time. In the front row, Andrew Porter and Tadhg Furlong are both out due to calf injuries. They are replaced by Jeremy Loughman and Thomas Clarkson. Sam Prendergast is trusted at fly-half in a reshaped backline for a tough night in Paris.

• France and Ireland have met 104 times in Test rugby, with France leading the all-time head-to-head 60 wins to 37, alongside seven draws.
• Last time these two sides met was in the 2025 Six Nations, when France claimed a 42-27 away victory in Dublin.
• The points line for this matchup is set at 50.5. Five of the last ten France vs Ireland meetings have produced a combined total above that mark.

France are clear favourites for this opener, but with the outright win priced at 1.12, the value lies elsewhere. We predict France to win both halves at 1.72. Ireland travel to Paris with a patched-up squad and several key absences, which may hurt their ability to stay competitive throughout the match.

The over 50.5 points at 1.90 also deserves attention. Each of the last three France vs Ireland meetings have gone over this mark. If the game opens up early, another total north of 50 points looks very realistic.

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