UFC 321 predictions and betting tips

Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi is the place for UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane, which takes place on October 25, 2025. There will be two title bouts in the main and co-main events, but MMA fans will see plenty of other familiar faces inside the octagon, as this card is pretty much stacked top to bottom.

MightyTips presents UFC 321 betting predictions for the event in the United Arab Emirates. We'll preview all fights of the main card and pick some of the most interesting preliminary bouts for betting purposes. There are quite a few heavy favourites in this event, but we'll still find some spots for value betting.

It's time for Tom Aspinall to finally defend his UFC heavyweight championship, as the Jon Jones narrative is over once and for all. The Englishman is up against Ciryl Gane, and we should expect fireworks. Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern will compete for the UFC women's strawweight title, which Zhang Weili vacated. Other notable names include Umar Nurmagomedov, Alexander Volkov, Aleksandar Rakić, and Ikram Aliskerov. Here's the full schedule for the event in Abu Dhabi:

Main card

• Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane
• Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern
• Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista
• Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida
• Aleksandar Rakić vs. Azamat Murzakanov

Preliminary card

• Nasrat Haqparast vs. Quillan Salkild
• Ikram Aliskerov vs. Park Jun-yong
• Ľudovít Klein vs. Mateusz Rębecki
• Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Matheus Camilo
• Valter Walker vs. Louie Sutherland
• Nathaniel Wood vs. Jose Miguel Delgado
• Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Chris Barnett
• Azat Maksum vs. Mitch Raposo
• Jaqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki Inoue

MightyTips' pundits are breaking down each fight of the main card, while also highlighting some of the most interesting preliminaries. We all know how unpredictable this sport is, and while our UFC 321 betting tips will hit more often than not, you'll have plenty to think about before placing any bets on this event.

Main event: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane

Gane probably shouldn't have been in the title fight in the first place. He was previously dominated by Jones and had only one solid win since then. He's also very inactive, focusing on movies and essentially waiting for another title opportunity. On top of that, Gane is a fairly one-dimensional fighter, mainly dangerous against strikers.

Aspinall is a completely different challenge. He can control where the fight goes, and his high fight IQ is unquestionable. Taking Gane down to the mat seems inevitable. Simply backing Aspinall to win at 1.25 is worthwhile and makes for a strong parlay pick. For a more specific prediction, Aspinall winning in under 2.5 rounds - or even under 1.5 rounds - seems very plausible.

Prediction: Tom Aspinall by submission or ground & pound in the first half of the fight.

Co-main event: Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern prediction

We were a bit surprised to see Jandiroba as an underdog here. This is a rematch, as Dern won a 29-28 unanimous decision almost five years ago. However, it seems that Jandiroba has made more significant progress since UFC 256 in December 2020, being on a 5-fight winning streak. Let's be clear - with all respect to Dern, you don't do fake bosom in the middle of your professional career.

Jandiroba is much more focused, and while Dern should have a slight striking advantage, overall, it's Virna who has more keys to victory. This bout won't be any spectacular, and we must underline that UFC would love Dern to become a champion. If it's a close one, the decision will go her way, but we're still backing Jandiroba here.

Prediction: Virna Jandiroba by decision in a snooze fest.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista prediction

Khabib Nurmagomedov's cousin returns to the octagon after suffering the first defeat of his career in the title fight against Merab Dvalishvili. He is up against Mario Bautista, who has been victorious in the last eight fights. However, just have a look at the opposition - there's not a single athlete we can compare to Umar.

The Dagestanian is better everywhere, and while his striking advantage is only a slight one, he has much better grappling than his Brazilian opponent. Yet Bautista is very durable, as he has been finished just twice in his 18-fight career. There's no value in betting Nurmagomedov to win at 1.16, but choosing his victory by decision at 1.61 looks much more promising, especially because that's the most likely outcome here.

Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov wins a 30-27 decision.

Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida prediction

This is a classic striker versus grappler matchup, and the change of betting lines for this fight was drastic. Alexander Volkov opened up as a favourite at 1.80; however, now he is the underdog at 2.62. Jailton Almeida will obviously go for takedowns, and Volkov had problems with wrestlers previously. Yet he will be significantly bigger than the Brazilian, and it's very hard to keep him on the ground.

Almeida 🤝 Volkov
Nice guy! pic.twitter.com/sziAl0aeNV

— Jailton Almeida “Malhadinho” (@Malhadinho_UFC) October 21, 2025

Besides, we already know that Drago has excellent cardio, while Almeida ran out of gas in the second round of his fight against Curtis Blaydes. If you check the list of Almeida's opponents, the beaten ones are not of Volkov's class. It looked 50-50 a week ago, so betting Volkov at 2.62 is a must. Watch him take full control of the fight somewhere in the second round!

Prediction: Alexander Volkov to win by KO after the first round.

Aleksandar Rakić vs. Azamat Murzakanov prediction

Azamat Murzakanov, unbeaten and with a 5-fight winning streak in the UFC, takes on Aleksandar Rakić, who lost his last three bouts. If we analyse this one on paper only, Murzakanov looks like a sure bet, but once again, let's look at the opposition. Rakić, now training with Jon Jones, lost all the mentioned fights against top-class athletes.

Murzakanov's biggest scalp, arguably, was Dustin Jacoby, whom he beat by a 29-28 decision. He also had serious problems versus Tafon Nchukwi, who is a low-level fighter and was released by UFC two years ago. Rakić was beating up Jiří Procházka for more than a round and also lost a 29-28 decision to Magomed Ankalaev a year ago. That's why the Rocket is our pick here.

Prediction: Aleksandar Rakić by decision.

Nasrat Haqparast vs Quillan Salkild prediction

The prelims will end with another bout where it's 50-50 according to the bookies. Nasrat Haqparast has won his last five fights, albeit the latter two by a split decision only. However, he was facing two very good fighters in Jared Gordon and Esteban Ribovics. While the loss to Bobby Green in 2022 doesn't age well, Haqparast has seen it all and can rely on bags of experience.

Quillan Salkild is a 25-year-old prospect with only two fights inside the UFC against low-level opposition. His wrestling will not work in this bout, and Haqparast is very good on the counter from a southpaw stance. While Salkild has potential and will probably have notable victories in the UFC, this matchup comes too soon for him, as Haqparast should prevail by decision in Abu Dhabi.

Prediction: Nasrat Haqparast wins a close decision.

Ikram Aliskerov vs Park Jun-yong prediction

It’s a tricky matchup for Ikram Aliskerov, but we can make our prediction based on both fighters facing André Muniz in the last two years. While Aliskerov found a knockout in the first round, Park Jun-yong lost a split decision. And let’s be real here - Muniz is far from his prime nowadays.

How good is Aliskerov's takedown defense? 🤯 pic.twitter.com/UR8wudymTL

— Pedro Baptista (@mmacrash) August 27, 2025

The Korean can't rely on his wrestling, as Aliskerov has an amazing takedown defence. Aliskerov has way better standup game, and while we can doubt his cardio, this fight shouldn't and won't go into deep waters. Aliskerov winning at 1.44 looks safe, but we'll opt for him getting a KO/TKO victory at 3.40.
Prediction: Aliskerov gets a knockout.

Ľudovít Klein vs. Mateusz Rębecki prediction

A battle of the Eastern Europeans is another notable fight of the preliminary card, and the bookies can't really choose between these two. Ľudovít Klein is a slight favourite at 1.72, while Mateusz Rębecki can be had at 2.10. We'll be brutally honest here - when analysing this bout, we've been jumping from one side to another numerous times.

One thing is for certain, though. Both fighters are very durable and go to the judges' scorecards in most cases. This can go either way and will be very close. Gun to the head, we'd choose the fight going over 2.5 rounds at 1.76 for betting purposes, but pass would be the best choice in our opinion.

Prediction: Ľudovít Klein wins a close decision, but we suggest opting for a pass.

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