2026 World Cup Round of 16 predictions: Some worthy underdogs available

By Deniss Novickis | Published: July 4, 2026, 10:00

The FIFA World Cup 2026 is down to 16 teams, and some of the real powerhouses, like Germany and the Netherlands, are already gone home. The battle goes on, as we’ll know the first quarter-finalists this weekend. France are red-hot favourites for a reason, sitting at 3.00 to win the tournament, but what about the other seven pairings? MightyTips talks about the Round of 16, making a prediction and providing a value bet for each of the eight games.

Match 90: Canada - Morocco, July 4, 19:00 CEST, Houston

Match 89: Paraguay - France, July 4, 23:00 CEST, Philadelphia

Match 91: Brazil - Norway, July 5, 22:00 CEST, East Rutherford

Match 92: Mexico - England, July 6, 02:00 CEST, Mexico City

Match 93: Portugal - Spain, July 6, 21:00 CEST, Dallas

Match 94: United States - Belgium, July 7, 02:00 CEST, Seattle

Match 95: Argentina - Egypt, July 7, 18:00 CEST, Atlanta

Match 96: Switzerland - Colombia, July 7, 22:00 CEST, Vancouver

Canada and Morocco square off after both produced hard-fought victories in the previous round. The Canadians edged South Africa 1-0, while Morocco prevailed in a penalty shootout against the Netherlands after a 1-1 draw. Canada looked decent so far, but let’s check the opposition. None of their previous opponents can be compared to Brazil or the Netherlands, and Morocco played confidently against both of them.

Morocco continue to build on their reputation as one of the tournament’s toughest defensive sides, conceding very few clear chances throughout the competition. Now sixth in the FIFA rankings, they should fancy their chances of going through to the quarter-finals. We expect Morocco’s captain, Achraf Hakimi, a full-back by position, to play as a winger and be in the middle of the action. Him scoring a goal at 6.00 is a great risky option, considering he takes all set-pieces as well.
Match prediction: Morocco will be victorious in 90 minutes, let’s say 2-0.

Paraguay face France after one of the biggest surprises of the Round of 32, eliminating Germany on penalties following a 1-1 draw. France, meanwhile, advanced in convincing fashion with a 3-0 victory over Sweden and arrive with growing confidence. Didier Deschamps' side has the tournament’s most prolific attack with 13 goals. Kylian Mbappé scored six of them, currently sitting second behind Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot race.

Paraguay have built their run on defensive organisation, resilience and composure under pressure, frustrating stronger opponents during this World Cup. Yet it’s impossible to see them producing another upset. While the South Americans can hold France for some time, the goals will be coming sooner rather than later. If France were to stumble out on the way to the final, it surely won’t happen in this game. While there’s no value in betting France to win at 1.18, Michael Olise to score at 2.75 looks promising.

Match prediction: 3-0 to France.

Brazil and Norway book their places in the Round of 16 after victories over Japan and Ivory Coast, respectively. Brazil suffered a potential setback when midfielder Lucas Paquetá picked up a thigh injury that leaves him doubtful for this match. Meanwhile, Norway are full of confidence, as Erling Haaland took his tournament tally to five goals. The Man City striker will once again be key to Norway’s success in New Jersey.

While Brazil are fifth in the top favourites list, at 11.00, we still can’t see them as contenders for the trophy. The team is very dependent on Vinícius Júnior, and sometimes there’s a feeling that everyone has to pass him the ball, even when his position is far from ideal. The Brazilians are not infallible in defence either, and the genius of Carlo Ancelotti might not be enough. They will surely have problems against a well-organised Norway, and the amazing scoring streak by Haaland makes us go for an upset here.

Match prediction: A 1-1 draw after 90 minutes, Norway clinch it in overtime.

Mexico, along with Spain, are the only two teams yet to concede a goal at the tournament. Javier Aguirre’s side has been almost ideal this summer, as they won Group A with a game to spare and left no chance to Ecuador in the Round of 32. Meanwhile, England were far from convincing. They had an awful match against Ghana and a poor first half against Panama, while the comeback win against DR Congo in the play-offs was somewhat lucky. We can’t deny the class of Harry Kane, but the Three Lions weren’t convincing at the back throughout that game.

To be perfectly honest, we were surprised that England are that big of a favourites. Here’s a key piece of information: Mexico lost just two of the previous 89 matches at the Estadio Azteca, winning 70 of them. The altitude of approximately 2,240 m (7,350 ft) above sea level makes it extremely difficult for visiting teams to sustain high intensity, and the support of 80,000 passionate fans is another major factor. We’re going for a second upset in a row.

Match prediction: Mexico win 1-0.

Spain are big favourites in the Iberian derby, at 1.85, and we can’t really argue with the bookmakers here. They played solidly in all matches, except for the opener against Cape Verde. Just eight goals scored, yet none conceded, and they look stronger than Portugal virtually in every aspect you can imagine. The Portuguese were vulnerable in all of their games, if we don’t count the 5-1 victory against the debutants from Uzbekistan.

A very fortunate win over Croatia in the Round of 32 is just the tip of the iceberg. Call us Cristiano Ronaldo haters, but it is never a good thing to have a 40-year-old forward who reacts to being substituted like a 5-year-old. Spain are simply of a higher class; they will have most of the ball and, at some point, punish Portugal for defensive errors. There’s no need to invent the wheel; just bet that Spain will be victorious in normal time.

Match prediction: 2-0 to Spain.

Here’s another match where the odds just don’t look right. The USA are one of the quickest teams at this World Cup, and they will have a huge speed advantage over the aged Belgium side. The Belgians, whose line-up looks pretty much the same as in Russia eight years ago, had problems in all matches, except for the game against low-level New Zealand. If you have seen their Round of 32 match versus Senegal, you won’t argue that they were super lucky to progress.

The only issue for the hosts is the suspension of their striker, Folarin Balogun. Still, the United States should do just fine thanks to the creativity of Weston McKennie, Christian Pulisic and Malik Tillman. We simply can’t see Belgium qualifying with the likes of Romelu Lukaku, who runs at 150 kilograms per hour. USA to go through at 1.90 is a great choice, and you can bet them winning in 90 minutes at 2.55 if the intention is to add some meat to the bone.

Match prediction: 2-0 to the United States.

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