The fear of high odds in sports betting

By Serge Gorelikov | Published: November 12, 2025

One of the most common psychological barriers among sports bettors is the fear of high odds. This fear shows up as a reluctance to place bets on events with odds of 3.00, 5.00, or higher, even when such bets objectively hold value. The reason lies not in mathematics, but in the psychology of risk and probability perception.

Many bettors associate high odds with an impossible outcome on instinct. When a bookmaker sets odds of 7.00, your subconscious tells you: "That will never happen". However, the odds only represent the probability of an event, not its impossibility. For example, odds of 5.00 indicate that, according to the market, the chance of victory is around 20%. This means the event is expected to occur roughly once in five attempts. If a bettor can identify situations where the real probability is higher than what the odds suggest, that's exactly where profitable betting strategies are built.

The problem is that most bettors think emotionally, not statistically. When they lose several bets with odds of 4.00 or 6.00, they conclude: "High odds are just a waste of money". In reality, even with correct analysis, such bets will lose more often, but the wins will cover those losses. For instance, if a player bets 100 units at odds of 5.00 and wins just one out of five bets, they break even. If they win more often, they profit.

The fear grows stronger over short distances. People fail to see the long-term picture because they judge success based on the last 3 to 5 bets. In betting, however, what matters is a large enough sample - at least 100-200 bets - to assess the effectiveness of a strategy properly. Emotional reactions to losses prevent objective analysis.

Social influence and popular media also play a major role. Most sports bloggers and tipsters prefer to share "safe" predictions with odds between 1.30 and 1.60. That's an easy way to attract followers, as people love the illusion of stability. Yet it's often the low-odds markets where bookmakers have the strongest built-in edge, while bettors overestimate the likelihood of the outcomes. The result? Bets that feel safe but are mathematically unprofitable. How many times have you bet on Real Madrid, Barcelona, or Man City to win at 1.50 - and lost? At least twice just this past weekend. But how many times have you bet on Elche to score in the second half at 4.00? Probably, never, if you're not following our Telegram channel.

The fear of high odds betting is a form of uncertainty avoidance. It's similar to an investor refusing to buy risky but potentially high-return assets. A wise bettor understands that odds are not the enemy - they're a tool. The key is not to avoid high numbers, but to evaluate them correctly. If your analysis shows the true probability is higher than what the market suggests, the bet has value, regardless of how big the odds are.

Here are some tips for overcoming this fear through a systematic approach:

• Keep records. Track all your bets and analyse results across different odds ranges.
• Maintain discipline and proper bankroll management. Bet size should depend on bankroll proportion, not on the odds themselves.
• Study the Probability theory and value betting. Understanding the math behind probability helps reduce emotional bias.
• Think long-term. Focus not on single bets, but rather on performance over hundreds of them.

The fear of betting on high odds is not an objective danger, but a psychological trap. Success in betting does not come from avoiding risk - you have to manage it smartly. In the end, profitable bettors are not the most cautious - they are the ones who understand how to work with probabilities.

Serge Gorelikov is a professional bettor who writes a weekly blog for MightyTips. In his articles, he explores how the betting world really works, covering everything from the basics to advanced strategies - offering valuable insights even for experienced bettors. To follow Serge's latest picks, become a member of our free Telegram channel.