2026 Winter Olympics medals odds: Which country is going to lead the medal count?

The XXV Winter Olympic Games are just around the corner, as the opening ceremony will be held at the legendary San Siro stadium in Milan on February 6. There will be plenty of drama on snow and ice up until February 22, when the closing ceremony will take place at the Verona Arena.

In this article, we focus on which nation is most likely to lead both the overall medal count and the gold medal tally at Milano Cortina 2026. We will analyse the number of medal events, break down the odds for the top contenders, highlight key favourites, and make our predictions for the ultimate winners. Norway dominated the gold medal standings at the last three Games - can they extend their streak to four?

A record of 116 medal events is planned at the 2026 Winter Olympics, beating the previous record of 109 podium contests set at Beijing 2022. Ski mountaineering is the new discipline in the Olympic programme, becoming the 16th sport at the Winter Olympics.

There are 15 medal disciplines in freestyle skiing, one and three more than speed skating and cross-country skiing, respectively.

Given Norway’s supremacy at the last three Winter Olympics, there’s no surprise that they are the favourites to claim the most gold medals, at 1.57. The USA, Germany, and Canada all have realistic chances to fight for first place. The table below shows the top 10 favourites along with their odds.

The odds are a bit different when it comes to the most medals won, but the favourites are the same. In fact, the Norwegians are even bigger favourites, at 1.30, given how many top athletes they’ll have at these Olympic Games. Only Germany and the United States have chances to make resistance, according to the odds.

In this section, we’ll talk about the top four contenders at the 2026 Olympics, their main challengers for gold, and the results at the previous Games in Beijing, before predicting how they will do this year.

Norway

Norway is the clear favourite for a reason. Johannes Høsflot Klæbo is the biggest weapon, as he has a real chance of winning 4+ gold medals in cross-country skiing. Jarl Magnus Riiber should prevail in both individual Nordic combined races, and we can’t forget about alpine skier Atle Lie McGrath, who’ll be the favourite in slalom.

Biathlon is another sport where Norway will have plenty of success. Johan-Olav Botn will battle for medals in all men’s individual events; the Norwegians will surely win the men's relay and will be competitive in the other two team events.

Results at Beijing 2022

Norway won 16 gold medals in China and 37 medals overall, 10 more than second-placed Germany. Biathlon and cross-country skiing were the most prolific sports for the Norwegians, with six and five gold medals, respectively.

Prediction for Milano Cortina 2026

While we have almost no doubts about Norway finishing as the best nation again, the odds on that are not impressive at all. However, betting on Norway winning over 15.5 gold medals at 2.10 looks far more promising.

USA

While the United States look the biggest threat for Norway, it will be extremely difficult for them to outpace the Scandinavians. Speed skater Jordan Stolz has a real chance of winning all three sprint events, and cross-country skier Jessie Diggins should be excellent in the women’s distance disciplines. Figure skating is another top sport for the USA, as they are the favourites in men’s singles, ice dance and the team event.

There could be up to five gold medals in freestyle for the Americans, and they obviously hope to win the ice hockey tournaments for both men and women. Last but not least, the 41-year-old Lindsey Vonn returns for the downhill gold 16 years after her Vancouver triumph, and Mikaela Shiffrin should win the slalom.

Results at Beijing 2022

The USA were third four years ago, winning nine gold medals and 25 medals overall. Snowboarding has brought them three golds, one more than freestyle and figure skating.

Prediction for Milano Cortina 2026

If you do like betting on underdogs at big odds, 5.50 on the Americans winning the most gold medals might be tempting. Wagering half a unit on that is worth a shot, in our opinion.
However, they should finish second, just behind Norway, but above Germany.

Johannes Lochner - 𝗕𝗼𝗯𝘀𝗹𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗠𝗲𝗻 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗿! ✨

2 disciplines, 14 races, 9 wins and never finished lower than 2nd place.. WOW! 🤩👏#IBSF #Winner pic.twitter.com/i9hXqt0Pks

— IBSF (@IBSFsliding) January 18, 2026

Germany

As always, the Germans will be way above the rest in the sliding disciplines. They will have a clean sweep of the podium in both men’s bobsleigh events, with Johannes Lochner becoming a two-time Olympic champion. Laura Nolte will likely do the same in women’s events.

Luge will bring four more gold medals - men’s singles and doubles, women’s singles, and the relay. Finally, Jacqueline Pfeiffer is the woman to beat in skeleton. If Germany can rediscover some form in biathlon, it has a chance to fight with the Americans for second place in the rankings. We can’t see Germany compete with Norway toe-to-toe..

Results at Beijing 2022

A second place in China, thanks to 12 golds and 27 medals overall. Obviously, the sliding disciplines were the most prolific ones for the Germans.

Prediction for Milano Cortina 2026

After analysing the betting lines and the chances in each sport, we believe that betting on Germany to win under 12.5 gold medals at 1.90 is a very reasonable choice. Besides the sliding events, they have a good chance of winning the Nordic combined relay, but that’s about it. Simple math hints it won’t go over 12 victories here.

Canada

Canada’s biggest strength is short-track speed skating. With Steven Dubois recovering from injury just in time, they have a chance to claim 4+ gold medals here. Another top sport for the Canadians is freestyle, thanks to Reece Howden, Julien Viel, and Naomi Urness.

Just like the Americans, Canada hopes for two gold medals in ice hockey. Their women are the team to beat in curling, and men have a good chance of reaching the top as well. However, that’s just about it, albeit some sensations which we’ll definitely witness.

Results at Beijing 2022

Surprisingly, Canada finished in 11th place last time out with just four gold medals. They were unlucky, though, as the country has claimed 26 medals overall, being fourth by this figure.

Prediction for Milano Cortina 2026

The Great White North won’t prevail in the number of gold medals or overall medals won. Canada simply has too many sports with no real podium contenders. In the meantime, freestyle and short-track speed skating should bring seven gold medals, their women’s team looks unbeatable at curling, and Canada just can’t finish without a single ice hockey gold. We believe betting Canada to claim over 8.5 gold medals at 2.00 is a bargain.

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