England vs Wales Six Nations match prediction, February 7th

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: February 6, 2026

England welcome Wales to Twickenham for the opening round of the 2026 Six Nations, kicking off another chapter in one of rugby's greatest rivalries. The hosts are in outstanding form, having won 11 tests in a row. There is a growing sense that this could finally be the year they lift their first trophy since 2020.

Wales travel to London at the start of a new era under head coach Steve Tandy. His side are looking for their first Six Nations win in two years after back-to-back Wooden Spoon finishes. Below, the MightyTips experts take a closer look at both sides and give you the best betting angles for this matchup.

England hold a slight edge in this historic matchup, but the overall margin is narrow. While they have been the more dominant side in recent years, Wales have still managed to pick up an occasional win. Looking at the last five meetings, England have won four and come into this clash on a three-game winning streak over their oldest rivals.

England head into the Six Nations in exceptional form. They made a clear statement last year by beating France, who are expected to win this year's championship. It summed up just how far this side has come. In fact, England lost only once across the whole of 2025, away to Ireland. That defeat proved costly as it denied them top spot in the 2025 Six Nations. Instead of knocking them back, it sparked a strong response. England went on an 11-match winning run, climbed to third in the World Rugby rankings, and now look far more reliable under Steve Borthwick than in previous campaigns.

England Injuries & Team News

The squad is largely settled and healthy. England's captain, Maro Itoje, has been benched for the first time in a Six Nations match since 2020. George Ford will start at fly-half to steer the attack. The Northampton pairing of Tommy Freeman and Fraser Dingwall line up in midfield. Also, Henry Arundell returns to the starting XV.

Wales find themselves at crossroads after a long and difficult spell. Coach Steve Tandy took charge in July 2025, but the improvements are yet to be seen. The team had a tough Autumn Nations Series. Their only win came in a narrow 24-23 victory over Japan, the same one-point margin they managed against Japan in the summer. Those two matches were Wales' only wins in 2025. The last time they won the Six Nations was back in 2021. Now, with two consecutive wooden spoon finishes, they are chasing better results this year. Tandy believes the team is moving in the right direction, but it remains unclear how soon the words will turn into results.

Wales Injuries & Team News

The Wales team have a refreshed lineup for the opener, with new faces in the squad. Louis Rees-Zammit returns at full-back, and Dewi Lake captains the side. Josh Macleod makes his Six Nations debut alongside Aaron Wainwright. Half-backs Tomos Williams and Dan Edwards start, while Tomas Francis returns to the bench. Wales have no major injury concerns.

• England have won 10 of their last 12 Six Nations meetings with Wales, including a record 54-point win in last year's tournament.
• England are on an 11-match winning streak, their best run since 2015-2017.
• Over 53.5 total points landed in 3 of the last 10 England vs Wales meetings, with the other 7 finishing under that mark.

Even with England coming in on a strong run, the over 53.5 points line feels a bit high. Only one of the last five meetings has gone beyond that total, and Six Nations games are often tighter and more controlled. Wales are likely to sit deep, defend hard, and slow the tempo. That's why we'll go with under 53.5 points at 1.90.

We expect Wales to turn up and show a better performance than they did last year. This is the opening game of the tournament for both teams. With a healthy squad, Wales should still have plenty of energy to put up a fight. Even if England controls most of the game, Wales over 12.5 points at 1.83 looks like a solid betting choice.

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