Evloev vs Murphy Odds and Prediction for UFC fight

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: March 18, 2026, 10:15 PM

UFC Fight Night returns to London on March 21 at the O2 Arena. The main event is a huge five-round featherweight clash between two unbeaten contenders, Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy. With both fighters yet to taste defeat, something has to give. The winner will move one step closer to a shot at the belt against Alexander Volkanovski.

In this Evloev vs Murphy prediction, we break down the betting odds and assess both fighters' recent performances. We will also give our take on whose perfect record is more likely to come to an end.

Evloev is the clear favourite to win this five-round main event, with odds reflecting his dominant wrestling resume. Meanwhile, Murphy is priced as an underdog at around 2.90, which could offer solid value given his knockout threat.

Evloev comes into this bout as the current No.1-ranked featherweight with a perfect 19-0 record. Murphy sits at No.3 with a 17-0-1 resume. Murphy is two years older and holds a slight height advantage, though both compete at the same weight and share an orthodox stance.

Evloev has been flawless since joining the UFC, winning all nine of his fights inside the promotion. However, every single one of those victories has come by decision, which has worked against him. The organization has not been entirely pleased. Not only due to the lack of finishes, but also because of his inconsistency in staying active. He has withdrawn from three scheduled bouts during this run.

It has now been over a year since his last appearance, a win over Aljamain Sterling, and the circumstances around this fight don't make things easier. He faces a British opponent in London, shortly after Ramadan, adding extra layers of difficulty to his preparation.

Evloev is a very well-rounded fighter. His game is built on control, elite grappling, and calculated pressure. He rarely takes risks, relying instead on positional dominance. The real question is - will a win over Murphy actually be enough for a title shot?

😬👀Aljamain Sterling calls Movsar Evloev “the most unreliable guy” and wants to be a back up fighter for #UFCLondon:

“I’m trying to throw my name to be a backup for that London card. Movsar is one of the most unreliable guys that pulls out of how many fights? Usually it’s him.”… pic.twitter.com/9wgxd5rJD8

— Home of Fight (@Home_of_Fight) February 10, 2026

Evloev's last fights

The Miracle has also gone through a period of decision wins, putting together a five-fight streak where his victories came on the scorecards. However, his latest performance changed that narrative. In his fight against Aaron Pico, which was originally planned as an opponent for Evloev, Murphy delivered one of the most spectacular knockouts of the year with a perfectly timed spinning back elbow.

Murphy is a sharp and composed striker with a strong fight IQ, but there are questions about his takedown defence. The rate sits at 51%, and it is one of the lowest rates among the top 10 featherweights.

That said, he is very good at working his way back up and limiting damage on the ground. His footwork often allows opponents to close the distance and put the pressure on at times, but he genuinely knows how to get out of dangerous situations.

😱 😱 MURPHY ÉTEINT LITTÉRALEMENT PICO DANS LE R1 !!!!#UFC319 pic.twitter.com/Ut4IYMttN6

— RMC Sport Combat (@RMCSportCombat) August 17, 2025

Murphy's last fights

It doesn't feel entirely justified to have Evloev as such a strong favourite heading into this matchup, given the circumstances. His training camp took place during Ramadan, he is facing a British opponent in London, and he has never been a favourite of the UFC matchmakers. On the other side, Murphy clearly has his chances, especially with his striking and home support, but it is hard to see him landing consistent damage against such a cautious fighter.

From a betting perspective, Murphy offers solid value as the underdog. Still, Evloev's wrestling and round-by-round control should be enough to secure another win on the scorecards, so we're backing him to win by decision.

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